Lee Evans?

[biglou]

What is everyones thoughts on Lee Evans this year? I think he Coule easliy be a Top 10 WR this year and if =(and it's a big IF) Losman progresses any he could really do well. I love his BIG play abilities.

[Bronco Billy]

What is everyones thoughts on Lee Evans this year? I think he Coule easliy be a Top 10 WR this year and if =(and it's a big IF) Losman progresses any he could really do well. I love his BIG play abilities.

 

I think that's reasonable upside for him. Losman made significant progress in the 2nd half of last season.

[Big Country]

Bronco Billy and I have gone over this in another thread before. He is up on him... more in the top 20 range. Me, I am down on him. As I said in that thread, statistically speaking, I have no real backup, it is just a gut feeling. IMO, with a rookie runner there and relatively young QB, teams are more apt to be able to play off and guard the pass, at least until we see what Lynch is capable of in the NFL. With him, again, would need to check the stats, he also seems to be inconsistent... one week you get 12-175-3 then you get 3-27 for a couple weeks. Again, just gut feeling, instinct and perception. Truth be told, he likely will end up a top 15 or 20 WR statwise, but I have a feeling the bulk of the production will come in 3 or 4 games over the course of the season.... I don't like that inconsistency, especially come playoff time when you need your players showing up.

[biglou]

Bronco Billy and I have gone over this in another thread before. He is up on him... more in the top 20 range. Me, I am down on him. As I said in that thread, statistically speaking, I have no real backup, it is just a gut feeling. IMO, with a rookie runner there and relatively young QB, teams are more apt to be able to play off and guard the pass, at least until we see what Lynch is capable of in the NFL. With him, again, would need to check the stats, he also seems to be inconsistent... one week you get 12-175-3 then you get 3-27 for a couple weeks. Again, just gut feeling, instinct and perception. Truth be told, he likely will end up a top 15 or 20 WR statwise, but I have a feeling the bulk of the production will come in 3 or 4 games over the course of the season.... I don't like that inconsistency, especially come playoff time when you need your players showing up.

If you don't like him who are some WR outside the top 12-15 I should look at because you make some good points on Evans but I still like his upside?

[Roo]

I like him, but be careful because I am a Bills fan. (sad, I know) He's also typically streaky.

 

Bu this year I kind of see him like a "Driver-like" role. He's a talented #1 WR in a struggling offense, but the QB relies on him enough to throw his way 10+ times per game. There is a lot of unknown, because this is a sink/swim year for Lossman, and then you also have a talented rookie RB in Lynch, who could either flounder (as many do) or become an immediate threat that Ds have to focus on. You can count on the Bills throwing alot lategame, which is a fantasy plus for WRs.

 

To be honest, what I am considering is letting someone else draft him and then trade for him. He has a tough early schedule.

Edited July 12, 2007 by Roo

[tonorator]

losman is coming along nicely and evans puts up the numbers. he can be inconsistent as bc stated, but he did post 80+ yards 7 times last season and scored in each of his last 4 games. combine that with his massive breakout potential (265 yards in one game last year) and i think you have a pretty exciting pick that would make a great WR2.

Edited July 13, 2007 by tonorator

[Goldsheet]

i'm with big country, i'm not really a huge buyer of evans.

 

i dont trust losman. i have a feeling he takes a step back this year and i expect buffalo to be one of the worst teams in the league. not that the team sucking is necessarily a reflection on how evans will perform but i just dont trust losman.

[broncosn05]

I'm with BB on Evans but to a further extent.

[Seahawks21]

Yep, I'm gonna stay in wait-and-see mode for a while longer with Evans.

[BIG SACK]

Yep, I'm gonna stay in wait-and-see mode for a while longer with Evans.

 

Good idea. Pay high. Love that strategy.

[Belushi]

I think the Bills will be passing more this year. They have a brutal schedule against the run, and their defence took some major hits in the off-season. Lynch is a good receiver out of the backfield, and I think the staff has more confidence in Losman now. They'll also be playing from behind allot. All that should add up to even better numbers for Evans.

[ReturnToSender]

I think the Bills pass a whole lot more this season, I think they will have to. I love Evans, just not on the Bills. I am stuck, 50/50 on his season this year. I don't want to sound ignorant, but who is the projected #2 and #3 WR on the team?

[Belushi]

I think the Bills pass a whole lot more this season, I think they will have to. I love Evans, just not on the Bills. I am stuck, 50/50 on his season this year. I don't want to sound ignorant, but who is the projected #2 and #3 WR on the team?

 

Peerless Price and Roscoe Parish. Not very good, but no worse than last year.

[irish]

I like Evans this year and think he should be good for about 80 rec. 1200 yds and 8 tds. He can be a bit up and down with the production though.

[Big Country]

I like Evans this year and think he should be good for about 80 rec. 1200 yds and 8 tds. He can be a bit up and down with the production though.

 

Yeah, but the bulk of those numbers will come in 3 or 4 games with 12 games with 3 catches for 35 yards and no scores.

[irish]

Yeah, but the bulk of those numbers will come in 3 or 4 games with 12 games with 3 catches for 35 yards and no scores.

 

I originally agreed, that's why I mentioned that he can be a bit up and down with his production. Although last year in a PPR scoring format his worst week was 2.1 pts and he had only 3 other weeks out of 16 with single digit production, they were- 3.9, 4.5 and 9.7. The rest were double digit and looked like this- 10.8, 12, 13.8, 15.7, 16, 16.2, 17.1, 17.4, 18.7, 24.4, 27.5, 49.5. So, after looking a little closer I'm liking Evans a little more than I did before. He had 3 weeks I'd throw out and 13 that I'd keep, not too shabby at all. And out of the 13 solid weeks he had 9 over 15 points and 3 over 20. So even though he may throw a few duds in there from time to time he also has some really hugh weeks that can carry a team to victory. Oh and outside his one insane performance, his biggest weeks came during playoff time, pretty nice!

 

Evans finished last year #8, is right outside my Top 10 at #12 easily and I'd be happy to draft him.

Edited July 16, 2007 by irish

[Big Country]

How do those numbers compare in terms of weekly performance compared to other WRs in a PPR format that are ranked close to him? I don't have access to my stats here at work at the moment, but without looking at those for comparison purposes, the weekly numbers he put up are not all that meaningful. (though, this gives me another good diea for article material)

[irish]

How do those numbers compare in terms of weekly performance compared to other WRs in a PPR format that are ranked close to him? I don't have access to my stats here at work at the moment, but without looking at those for comparison purposes, the weekly numbers he put up are not all that meaningful. (though, this gives me another good diea for article material)

 

Well let's compare him to Roy Williams who had the same amount of receptions, 19 more yards than Evans and 1 less TD.

 

Roy had 82 rec. for 1,310 yds and 7 tds.

 

Roy had 4 weeks where he had single digit points- 1.7, 2.1, 6.6, 8. Then he had 12 weeks of double digit points- 10.9, 11.7, 13.1, 13.1, 13.3, 18.6, 19.9, 22.1, 22.9, 25.8, 26.8, 28.4.

 

So Roy's worst weeks were worse than Evans' but they're comparable.

 

Evan's double digit scoring (low-high) 10.8, 12, 13.8, 15.7, 16, 16.2, 17.1, 17.4, 18.7, 24.4, 27.5, 49.5

Roy's double digit scoring (low- high) 10.9, 11.7, 13.1, 13.1, 13.3, 18.6, 19.9, 22.1, 22.9, 25.8, 26.8, 28.4

 

Very interesting... their poor performances were similar and their low double digit numbers were similar as well. I took the the four poor performances and totaled them and Evans had 20.2 pts while Roy had 4 bad games of 18.4 pts. Then I split the 12 good games into 3 separate groupings a low, medium and high performance group. Evans' low good games totaled 52.3 pts and Roy's totaled 49 pts. Relatively the same with Evans having slightly more points in the lower range a 13.1 (E) to 12.3 (Roy) pts per game average. Then we look at the medium group of 4 games with good numbers and Evans' totaled 66.7 points, while Roy totaled 73.9 pts meaning Roy had a higher average when it came to having medium good games a 18.5 (Roy) pts per game average to a 16.7 pts (E). Then we look at the last set of numbers, the 4 high performance games where Evans totaled 120.1 pts while Roy totaled 103.8 a significant drop-off from what Evans did. Evans 4 big games averaged over 30 points while Roy's was 26.

 

So in conclusion Roy may be a tad more consistent (not even noticeable) when it comes to not having poor and lower scoring games (8 games) Evans averaged 18.2 total points while Roy had 16.9. However, Evans was a tad better in the medium-high performance games (8 games). Evans averaged 46.7 total points to Roy's 44.5 pts. Many, if not all owners will be selecting Roy in drafts before Evans however, they are very similar receivers and Evans actually has more upside. This was very interesting to breakdown.

Edited July 16, 2007 by irish

[Big Country]

Well let's compare him to Roy Williams who had the same amount of receptions, 19 more yards than Evans and 1 less TD.

 

Roy had 82 rec. for 1,310 yds and 7 tds.

 

Roy had 4 weeks where he had single digit points- 1.7, 2.1, 6.6, 8. Then he had 12 weeks of double digit points- 10.9, 11.7, 13.1, 13.1, 13.3, 18.6, 19.9, 22.1, 22.9, 25.8, 26.8, 28.4.

 

So Roy's worst weeks were worse than Evans' but they're comparable.

 

Evan's double digit scoring (low-high) 10.8, 12, 13.8, 15.7, 16, 16.2, 17.1, 17.4, 18.7, 24.4, 27.5, 49.5

Roy's double digit scoring (low- high) 10.9, 11.7, 13.1, 13.1, 13.3, 18.6, 19.9, 22.1, 22.9, 25.8, 26.8, 28.4

 

Very interesting... their poor performances were similar and their low double digit numbers were similar as well. I took the the four poor performances and totaled them and Evans had 20.2 pts while Roy had 4 bad games of 18.4 pts. Then I split the 12 good games into 3 separate groupings a low, medium and high performance group. Evans' low good games totaled 52.3 pts and Roy's totaled 49 pts. Relatively the same with Evans having slightly more points in the lower range a 13.1 (E) to 12.3 (Roy) pts per game average. Then we look at the medium group of 4 games with good numbers and Evans' totaled 66.7 points, while Roy totaled 73.9 pts meaning Roy had a higher average when it came to having medium good games a 18.5 (Roy) pts per game average to a 16.7 pts (E). Then we look at the last set of numbers, the 4 high performance games where Evans totaled 120.1 pts while Roy totaled 103.8 a significant drop-off from what Evans did. Evans 4 big games averaged over 30 points while Roy's was 26.

 

So in conclusion Roy may be a tad more consistent (not even noticeable) when it comes to not having poor and lower scoring games (8 games) Evans averaged 18.2 total points while Roy had 16.9. However, Evans was a tad better in the medium-high performance games (8 games). Evans averaged 46.7 total points to Roy's 44.5 pts. Many, if not all owners will be selecting Roy in drafts before Evans however, they are very similar receivers and Evans actually has more upside. This was very interesting to breakdown.

 

Given the scoring showed, these averages can not be correct. And, quite frankly you will need a larger sample size than two WRs. What this may show is that based on last years numbers, and all else being equal, Evans gave similar production to Roy, but was likely to be had quite a bit later.

 

If i get a chance (or if someone wants to take this on) I'll do a quick stab at the top 36 WRs from last year (based on 0.1 per receiving yard, 6 per TD and 1 per reception)

Edited July 16, 2007 by Big Country

[irish]

Given the scoring showed, these averages can not be correct. And, quite frankly you will need a larger sample size than two WRs. What this may show is that based on last years numbers, and all else being equal, Evans gave similar production to Roy, but was likely to be had quite a bit later.

 

If i get a chance (or if someone wants to take this on) I'll do a quick stab at the top 36 WRs from last year (based on 0.1 per receiving yard, 6 per TD and 1 per reception)

 

Well here's the results from last years totals from my league at Fanball. The first is the point total from the whole year and the second is a point average from the games played over the year. TDs are only worth 5 pts in this league not 6 but the rest is the same.

 

http://fbcmain.fanball.com/commissioner.fbc?prg=rpplayers Evans is #8 and #10

 

Edit to add that the 2 links didn't take you to where I wanted but just change the drop downs to WR and click total and then click average.

Edited July 16, 2007 by irish

[Big Country]

I just meant that no way Evan and Williams were averagin 40+ points a game when Evans was the only player with one game over 40 for the entire season

[irish]

I just meant that no way Evan and Williams were averagin 40+ points a game when Evans was the only player with one game over 40 for the entire season

 

I guess I misworded it. They didn't average 46.7 and 44.5 points per game it was the averages of points totaled over the best four games for both guys.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I'll take Roy 10 times out of 10. And I did.