The next Ice Age

[DemonKnight]

But I'm of the opinion that we should move away from combustion engines altogether. My next car will be an electric car (assuming my Honda holds out another 5 years like I'm planning).

 

 

The question is, what is your answer to the coal power plant? I think nuclear energy is a must for the forseeable future. In the long run, fossil feuls are too important to waste carrying us to work and back >100 miles a day. People forget all of the other vital uses that carbon has. It is finite.

[Jimmy Neutron]

Ethanol is not a viable solution to our current need for auto fuel, let alone other uses. 1 acre of switchgrass can be converted to roughly 850 gallons of fuel. That means my family's modest driving would require just over 2 acres of ground for ethanol production. Corn is about 1/3 as efficient as switchgrass. Do the math. Food costs are already rising because of the very minor and government mandated growth in the ethanol industry.

 

Nuclear power is often touted as the most viable solution, but there is a major problem with it - water. Many of our existing nuke plants are within 5 years of mandatory shutdown because of drought. Cooling reactors requires vast amounts of water that is coming harder and harder to come by.

 

Wind, solar, tidal, river and ocean currents are part of the answer.

[Bill Swerski]

It produces significantly less CO2 and CO than gasoline. It's a much cleaner burning fuel. Plus the act of growing a crop actually absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, which is nice.

 

The act of growing the crop to absorb the extra CO2 produced is nice in theory, but won't happen in practice. There aren't going to be enough new farms produced solely for this purpose. What will happen (and IS currently happening, as reflected in the price increase in corn-based food products) instead is that fewer existing corn fields will be used for food products. There will still be a net gain of CO2 produced.

 

Agreed that it's better than burning gasoline, but it's not the super-clean solution that people think it is.

 

But I'm of the opinion that we should move away from combustion engines altogether.

 

+1

[TimC]

The day the Government forces me to drive a special car is the day I overthrow them. If you want to be "green", I have no problem but stop forcing it on everyone. Those of you who believe this stuff can cut back your own use and save the planet. Prove it to the rest of us and let the market dictate it.

 

And Electric cars aren't close to the answer.

[yo mama]

The day the Government forces me to drive a special car is the day I overthrow them.

How'd that work out for you last time? Yeah, that's what I though.

 

:judgesmails: You'll drive a Prius and you'll like it! :judgesmails:

[TimC]

I was beside a Prius in Da Vette the other day. Guy started crying. I pulled out a glass and collected his tears while laughing hysterically. Then a penguin told me I sucked and plunked 2 ice cubes in the glass.

[DemonKnight]

The day the Government forces me to drive a special car is the day I overthrow them. If you want to be "green", I have no problem but stop forcing it on everyone. Those of you who believe this stuff can cut back your own use and save the planet. Prove it to the rest of us and let the market dictate it.

 

And Electric cars aren't close to the answer.

 

What about the day there is absolutely none of your light sweet crude to be had? Would you still overthrow your government? You might not see that day but your children will.

[polksalet]

A friend of mine with a mster's in meteorology told me one "if it is hot it is because of global warming, if it is cold it is because of global warming" and he was serious.

[AtomicCEO]

The day the Government forces me to drive a special car is the day I overthrow them. If you want to be "green", I have no problem but stop forcing it on everyone. Those of you who believe this stuff can cut back your own use and save the planet. Prove it to the rest of us and let the market dictate it.

 

And Electric cars aren't close to the answer.

 

When every production electric car is blowing your Vette away off the line, and they are paying under 20cents a gallon for fuel, we can revisit this.

 

I believe the market will decide, and you'll be the guy in the smoke-spewing clunker I'm yelling at to get the hell out of the fast lane.

[Ursa Majoris]

Dude, you're talking to a public school teacher. They have no use for facts.

The right wing seem to have enormous difficulty with figuring out the difference between weather and climate.

[TimC]

The right wing seem to have enormous difficulty with figuring out the difference between weather and climate.

 

The left wing seem to have enormous difficulty with figuring out the difference between individual freedom and government control over everything from birth to grave.

[TimC]

When every production electric car is blowing your Vette away off the line, and they are paying under 20cents a gallon for fuel, we can revisit this.

 

I believe the market will decide, and you'll be the guy in the smoke-spewing clunker I'm yelling at to get the hell out of the fast lane.

 

Until you run out of extension cords. Gee, where does that electricity come from?

[twiley]

Then a penguin told me I sucked and plunked 2 ice cubes in the glass.

Talking penguins, polar ice caps reforming at an alarming rate, and severe drops in temperature...it's only a matter of time before the Penguins rule the world. I knew I wasn't hallucinating in Vegas. I will welcome our black and white flightless overlords with open arms.

[yo mama]

The left wing seem to have enormous difficulty with figuring out the difference between individual freedom and government control over everything from birth to grave.

That'd be funny, if you were joking. No one has done more to curb our personal freedoms than today's "right wing." As much as you may hate lefty folks like the ACLU, they protect your rights just as much as any one else's. Besides, driving is a privilege, not a freedom.

[AtomicCEO]

Until you run out of extension cords. Gee, where does that electricity come from?

 

The power grid, whatever it may be.

 

And as DC electric, it's far less wasteful than exploding gasoline on a piston and shooting the rest out the tailpipe.

[The Holy Roller]

Dude, you're talking to a public school teacher. They have no use for facts.

 

Oh wait. I am one.

 

And Al (Oil Money) Gore is a politician who can't politic anymore so he's making his money another way. He should practice what he preaches or shut his hole. We have the answer to all our energy needs already but the people have been led to believe it's evil. New-cle-ear power can do it all. Just ask France.

[TimC]

The power grid, whatever it may be.

 

And as DC electric, it's far less wasteful than exploding gasoline on a piston and shooting the rest out the tailpipe.

 

There's billions to be made if there is a better way to make a better car. Literally billions. You think someone would've come up with a more efficient way by now. They've had at least 20 years of warning.

 

I'm guessing the answer is GM and Ford kills everyone who has invented the miracle car that runs on sea water. Or Bush has supressed it. Or the aliens that live in your world have stolen the plans...again.

 

And by aliens, of course, I mean penguins.

Edited February 27, 2008 by TimC

[isleseeya]

Big business ( oil companies ) rule the roost

 

we have advanced technology ..we can take clear pictures on mars like taking your kids picture on their bday

 

if serious efforts , time and money were devoted to getting away from cars running on gas and instead use alternative means of energy ( i e electricity) we would all be driving electric cars by now ...shoot we could be like the Jetsons in less than 10 years if that was the direction we wanted to go

 

for now gas and oil are like a ball and chain on all our legs ..we aint getting away from it anytime soon

 

100 a barrel and climbing , more and more pollution and harmful gases being emitted into atmosphere and exxon making 11 billion in one quarter ..gotta love it

[DemonKnight]

Oh wait. I am one.

 

And Al (Oil Money) Gore is a politician who can't politic anymore so he's making his money another way. He should practice what he preaches or shut his hole. We have the answer to all our energy needs already but the people have been led to believe it's evil. New-cle-ear power can do it all. Just ask France.

 

Show me one example of Al Gore cowtowing to Big Oil. Just one vote paid for by the Oil lobby.

 

I do agree with you on the nuclear power being the short term solution. But someone mentioned water scarcity being an issue. I hadent heard that.

[westvirginia]

exploding on a piston and shooting the rest out the tailpipe.

 

I think that's what happened to the pizza I ate last night. It woke me up early this morning...

[DemonKnight]

On Oil Reserves & Resources:

 

We've used up over 900 Gb globally, but we still have 1500 Gb remaining. Unfortunately, according to the world-renowned oil geologist Dr Colin Campbell, these totals are deceptive. They're deceptive because the major oil-exporting nations have major incentives for exaggerating their estimates of reserves: the more reserves they can claim, the more oil they can pump.

 

Campbell calls these overstated reserves "paper reserves" or "political reserves." He estimates that fully 30% of stated global oil reserves are in fact of the paper/political variety. Furthermore, he claims that a large percentage of "undiscovered resources" should not even be considered resources because they are not economically recoverable now, and never will be.

 

After subtracting for "political reserves" and "unrecoverable resources," Campbell comes up with about 900 Gb remaining. But of course these 900 Gb are not the same as the 900 Gb that we've already burned. In geologist's terminology, a good part of them are much "tighter and deeper," that is, they are much harder to find and much harder to extract and refine.

 

Energy Profit Ratio:

 

For many oil fields, the total energy used in finding, extracting, refining and transporting the oil will approach the energy in the oil itself. At that point, the energy profit ratio approaches 1:1 and it becomes more economical to just leave that oil in the ground, and to look for other energy resources elsewhere.

 

The peak in global oil discoveries occurred back in the 1960s. Since then, geologists have discovered progressively less oil annually, and at progressively greater cost. In fact, annual oil discoveries are currently only about a quarter of annual oil consumption . Obviously, this is not a trend that can continue for very long.

 

After the Peak

 

Recent price increases may indicate that we are very close to the peak. With oil currently at $25 per barrel, the price is 20-30% above the price that economists have set as the optimum for maintaining the supremacy of oil as an energy source. Therefore oil prices are already at a point where alternative energy sources and conservation are very competitive.

 

If oil prices continue to rise to $30 or even $40 per barrel , we could see massive shifts to alternative energy sources and conservation. But we could also see massive inflation and dislocations in national and global economies. People who drive a lot and who have poorly insulated homes will feel the crunch. Whole industrial sectors will undergo major transformations.

 

On the upside, we'll see much less air pollution. Reduced carbon emissions will reduce the effects of climate change over time as the excess carbon already in the atmosphere gets absorbed by forests and oceans. There will be a boom in the new sectors of the economy associated with alternative energy sources and conservation.

 

Land use patterns will change. There will be greater pressure on our forests as sources of energy. Increased energy costs in paper manufacturing will make paper recycling more economical. Some pulp plantations will be converted to energy plantations. Some marginal agricultural lands and high-graded forests will be converted to energy plantations. Energy efficient tree crop systems for food production will be be developed and expanded.

 

 

Its okay TimC, when the oil runs dry you can still retrofit yer Vette with an electric engine.

[AtomicCEO]

There's billions to be made if there is a better way to make a better car. Literally billions. You think someone would've come up with a more efficient way by now. They've had at least 20 years of warning.

 

I'm guessing the answer is GM and Ford kills everyone who has invented the miracle car that runs on sea water. Or Bush has supressed it. Or the aliens that live in your world have stolen the plans...again.

 

And by aliens, of course, I mean penguins.

 

In less than 5 years, production electric cars will be on the market with a 100+ mile range. Even the ugly ones will outperform your Vette.

 

They've been working on electric cars for a long time, but you just couldn't get a good range from lead-acid batteries without making the car out of cardboard. With the new advancements and lowered costs of Lithium Ion and carbon fiber frames, it's more feasible now.

[Jimmy Neutron]

In less than 5 years, production electric cars will be on the market with a 100+ mile range. Even the ugly ones will outperform your Vette.

 

They've been working on electric cars for a long time, but you just couldn't get a good range from lead-acid batteries without making the car out of cardboard. With the new advancements and lowered costs of Lithium Ion and carbon fiber frames, it's more feasible now.

 

There is no doubt that electroc cars will work for many applications, the question is will they actually help reduce greenhouse gases. Obviously, they don't emit CO2, but the increased demand for juice from the grid will increase the output from our primarily coal, NG and oil burning power plants.

[bushwacked]

And Al (Oil Money) Gore is a politician who can't politic anymore so he's making his money another way.

 

Doesn't it seem like there would be an easier method to an ends for a former political figure of Gore's stature if $$ was his sole objective?

[McBoog]

There is no doubt that electroc cars will work for many applications, the question is will they actually help reduce greenhouse gases. Obviously, they don't emit CO2, but the increased demand for juice from the grid will increase the output from our primarily coal, NG and oil burning power plants.

 

Which was the original point. We tend to react to problems without evaluating the big picture consequences. I like the switchgrass (another C3 plant) model, but the farm lobbies will fight for their piece of the pie now that they have a big piece of it just as fervently as big oil does. Problem is that it is not a long term solution and does not end our dependence on fossil fuels and the environmental/political ramifications that come with them.

 

Nuclear power, clean and now very safe, to juice up our electric cars seems reasonable until you look at the ecological impact they have at least locally. The massive amounts of hot water poured back into the local ecosystems has had serious effects on local biomes. How many of these biomes do we disturb before it evolves into some form of global impact?

 

I heard the latest commercial for the hydrogen powered engines in some cars including the BMW. Their big claim to fame is that they only produce water as their exhaust. Unfortunately this is super-heated water vapor. Water vapor is a much more significant "greenhouse gas" than CO2 could ever hope to be. Dumping mass quantities of water vapor into the atmosphere as a trade off to CO2 seems to be counterproductive to the Climal Warnging position (though the reduced poisonous emissions would be better than the current internal combustion platform).

 

I can't say there is any real correct solution given the technologies we have available right now. But, whatever we do, there will be consequences, and managing/minimizing those will be the biggest key to get us past this.