CJ seems over hyped to me

[FishFreak]

Is it my imagination or is Calvin Johnson over valued this year? We all know he has the physical tools to be great but he's only in his 2nd year and didn't blow me away last year in Martz's system. Now all of a sudden I'm seeing this guy getting drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds slightly ahead of Roy Williams. He's an ideal no. 3 WR but it looks like he's being drafted as a no. 2. I see 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 scores. Not sure why he's flying up the boards so fast??? Even if he does break out this year, I can't see CJ AND Roy Williams doing 1,100+ yards each. Somebody is going to disappoint.....

[Randall]

Is it my imagination or is Calvin Johnson over valued this year? We all know he has the physical tools to be great but he's only in his 2nd year and didn't blow me away last year in Martz's system. Now all of a sudden I'm seeing this guy getting drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds slightly ahead of Roy Williams. He's an ideal no. 3 WR but it looks like he's being drafted as a no. 2. I see 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 scores. Not sure why he's flying up the boards so fast??? Even if he does break out this year, I can't see CJ AND Roy Williams doing 1,100+ yards each. Somebody is going to disappoint.....

 

 

He's probably over valued now. I got him as the 25th WR a while back and thought that was an outstanding value, but tables have turned

 

In Ladder he was the 14th WR taken ahead of Plax, Jennings, Coles, Cotchery, Boldin and Roy Williams. That is early. He could be worth it but that is early.

[gsmayes]

Well, WRs 13-24 last year averaged 1028 yards and 6.6 TDs, so your projections make him a #2 WR. Also, he had a lingering back injury last year and the Martz system deflates his numbers because it spread the ball around to Furrey/McDonald so much. You can't deny his upside, I'm a Lions fan and I think Roy Williams is more likely to disappoint this season. I know the Lions want to run more this year, but wanting and doing are two different things, and the oline still can't run block. Also, the defense still isn't very good, so I think Kitna will still be in the 3500 passing yard range, with more of that going to the primary WRs.

[darin3]

Is it my imagination or is Calvin Johnson over valued this year? We all know he has the physical tools to be great but he's only in his 2nd year and didn't blow me away last year in Martz's system. Now all of a sudden I'm seeing this guy getting drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds slightly ahead of Roy Williams. He's an ideal no. 3 WR but it looks like he's being drafted as a no. 2. I see 70 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 scores. Not sure why he's flying up the boards so fast??? Even if he does break out this year, I can't see CJ AND Roy Williams doing 1,100+ yards each. Somebody is going to disappoint.....

Not sure what you expected out of the guy in his rookie year, learning a pretty complex offense. To boot, he was hurt (and the injury was lingering/nagging all season).

 

I do agree, though, that he makes a better WR3 than WR2. However, if I had a Moss or Owens as my WR1 and a big-time "upside" WR3 in place, I think I'd feel OK with Johnson as my WR2.

 

And I know it's a bit different in terms of situations, but there were years with the Rams that Holt and Bruce were both putting up numbers. Ditto for Harrison and Wayne.

 

He's probably over valued now. I got him as the 25th WR a while back and thought that was an outstanding value, but tables have turned

 

In Ladder he was the 14th WR taken ahead of Plax, Jennings, Coles, Cotchery, Boldin and Roy Williams. That is early. He could be worth it but that is early.

Yeah that is a little high for Johnson. I would have taken Burress before him. I'd probably draft his running mate Williams before him, too. But not so sure about Jennings, Coles, Cotchery or Boldin.

[darin3]

Well, WRs 13-24 last year averaged 1028 yards and 6.6 TDs, so your projections make him a #2 WR. Also, he had a lingering back injury last year and the Martz system deflates his numbers because it spread the ball around to Furrey/McDonald so much. You can't deny his upside, I'm a Lions fan and I think Roy Williams is more likely to disappoint this season. I know the Lions want to run more this year, but wanting and doing are two different things, and the oline still can't run block. Also, the defense still isn't very good, so I think Kitna will still be in the 3500 passing yard range, with more of that going to the primary WRs.

Great points...

 

I'm thinking Kitna is around 3200, which will mean CJ and RoyWill should be over 1,000 apiece.

[FishFreak]

Not sure what you expected out of the guy in his rookie year, learning a pretty complex offense. To boot, he was hurt (and the injury was lingering/nagging all season).

 

I do agree, though, that he makes a better WR3 than WR2. However, if I had a Moss or Owens as my WR1 and a big-time "upside" WR3 in place, I think I'd feel OK with Johnson as my WR2.

 

And I know it's a bit different in terms of situations, but there were years with the Rams that Holt and Bruce were both putting up numbers. Ditto for Harrison and Wayne.

 

 

 

The Rams and Colts had/have high powered offensive schemes. The Lions aren't in that category so it's hard to see both CJ and Roy putting up top numbers. Like I said, someone will probably disappoint their owners.

[MrTed46]

I love Calvin this year and going forward. He reminds me of a young TO

[tonorator]

he's gone in the mid-4th round in my drafts which is pretty aggressive. remember that the bulk of his production in the pre-season has been against the bengals and the giants secondary, neither of which are all that good. he has looked good, but he is still a second receiver on a historically bad team that just brought in a more conservative offensive coordinator. as stated, i would expect solid WR2 kind of numbers, with some moderate upside due to his ongoing development.

[rhippens]

The Rams and Colts had/have high powered offensive schemes. The Lions aren't in that category so it's hard to see both CJ and Roy putting up top numbers. Like I said, someone will probably disappoint their owners.

 

 

i think it's just as possible that this player will be kevin smith, not CJ or roy.

[Big Ernie McCracken]

If I had a solid #1WR, I think I could roll with CJ at #2WR. His upside bumps him past some of the older guys in my rankings.

[Jo]

Calvin Johnson will be the centerpiece of that offense for years to come, while Roy Williams is likely gone next season. The Lions have a lot more incentive to make him the #1 option in the passing option than they do Roy Williams, which is why I have him ranked higher than Roy as well.

[Furd]

It seems that some are forgetting that he has Jon Kitna throwing the ball to him.

 

[TDFFFreak]

Williams is shaping up to be a great early round value. While I like CJ well enough, the fact that I can get Roy Williams in the 4th or maybe even the 5th round screams "buy" to me. On the other hand, grabbing CJ in the 4th or 5th round for a player who was dealing with some injuries and is only in his second year tells me that you have to reach for a relatively unproven player in a spot where you can grab a more proven commodity (such as the WRs Randall mentions).

 

Then again, last year I reached slightly for a guy named Brandon Marshall and that worked out okay for me...

[Seahawks21]

Yeah, I've noticed he has been going awfully early too. I'm going to wait until he becomes consistent before I take him over guys like Boldin, Roy & even Bowe. Incredible talent, but didn't seem to put it all together last season. I'm not saying that he won't this season, but he is one of those guys that I probably will let somebody else take if he is going to go that quickly.

[griff321]

It seems that some are forgetting that he has Jon Kitna throwing the ball to him.

 

 

 

Riight and Kitna's performances can't at all be attributed to a one dimensional playbook? I think #2 numbers will be there easily.

 

Honestly people need to stop thinking that with Martz gone it will be a bad thing.

Edited August 25, 2008 by griff321

[Furd]

Riight and Kitna's performances can't at all be attributed to a one dimensional playbook? I think #2 numbers will be there easily.

 

Honestly people need to stop thinking that with Martz gone it will be a bad thing.

 

 

Who's thinking about Martz?

 

Kitna is a mediocre, journeyman 35 year old quarterback. Plus, do you really think that the Lions are qoing to be successful running the ball this year, such that they have a "two dimensional" attack?

 

[MrTed46]

Who's thinking about Martz?

 

Kitna is a mediocre, journeyman 35 year old quarterback. Plus, do you really think that the Lions are qoing to be successful running the ball this year, such that they have a "two dimensional" attack?

 

 

I think Roy and Calvin are both going to have 1,000 + yard seasons. The TDs they will share about 12 or more (the split will prob be like 7 - 5 favoring Roy)

 

To be honest, I would be happy to own both these WRs but I would need depth on the bye week

[detlef]

Yeah that is a little high for Johnson. I would have taken Burress before him. I'd probably draft his running mate Williams before him, too. But not so sure about Jennings, Coles, Cotchery or Boldin.

What he said.

 

I took him at pick 45 on Saturday as my 5th player in a 10 team league. After Plax and R Will but before the rest listed above. I'm stacked at RB (lynch, Barber, and T Jones) and had Andre Johnson already so I figured I'd swing for the fences.

[gsmayes]

It seems that some are forgetting that he has Jon Kitna throwing the ball to him.

 

 

Kitna is pretty decent at getting WRs the ball...he's just not very good at not getting the ball to the other color jersey.

[Avernus]

Kitna is pretty decent at getting WRs the ball...he's just not very good at not getting the ball to the other color jersey.

 

plus the Lions OL is extremely mediocre at best....

 

he's Kitna + Lions OL = one very productive WR and an underachiever on the other side..

[detlef]

Would you say that CJ has at least a 50/50 chance of being great this year? I don't think that's too much of a stretch based on his freakish talent and the fact that I've heard nothing but praise coming from the camp.

 

So, should one expect better than 50/50 chance of being great from that spot? Let's see...

 

He seems to be going around late 40s, early 50s. What did that yield last year:

 

45. McAllister, Deuce NOS RB* busted knee- nothing before injury

46. Driver, Donald GBP WR non-starter

47. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB very, very nice

48. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB Stud

49. Burress, Plaxico NYG WR very, very nice

50. Barber, Marion DAL RB borderline stud

51. Williams, Carnell TBB RB* busted knee- meh before injury

52. Ward, Hines PIT WR 24th in WR pts per week- meh

53. Romo, Tony DAL QB stud

54. Bears, Chicago CHI Def no great shakes

55. Young, Vince TEN QB sucked

 

So, about 50% is what we're talking about. 5 of the 11 guys taken around there turned out to be very good to great, 5 were nothing you'd miss, and 1 was a D that was worthy of a starting spot but only marginally better than the next 10 or so.

 

So, that doesn't seem to be a bad place to take a guy who's got the body to change the position.

Edited August 25, 2008 by detlef

[Randall]

Would you say that CJ has at least a 50/50 chance of being great this year? I don't think that's too much of a stretch based on his freakish talent and the fact that I've heard nothing but praise coming from the camp.

 

So, should one expect better than 50/50 chance of being great from that spot? Let's see...

 

He seems to be going around late 40s, early 50s. What did that yield last year:

 

 

 

So, about 50% is what we're talking about. 5 of the 11 guys taken around there turned out to be very good to great, 5 were nothing you'd miss, and 1 was a D that was worthy of a starting spot but only marginally better than the next 10 or so.

 

So, that doesn't seem to be a bad place to take a guy who's got the body to change the position.

 

 

46. Driver, Donald GBP WR non-starter

 

Driver was a non starter? What as a 4th WR?

 

He had an off year for him but was the 25th WR in my main league. He had a shoulder injury and he played through it too.

[detlef]

46. Driver, Donald GBP WR non-starter

 

Driver was a non starter? What as a 4th WR?

 

He had an off year for him but was the 25th WR in my main league. He had a shoulder injury and he played through it too.

By Huddle Standings from 2007, he was 30th in WR pts and 33 in Pts per week. OK, so maybe you start 3 WR. That makes him a starter...barely. None the less, it also puts him at a strata where he's barely better than the next 10. So, my point is simply you would not be kicking yourself for letting him get away if you took someone else at 5 and he wasn't there at 6. Well, at least you wouldn't be kicking yourself once the year was under way.

[Randall]

By Huddle Standings from 2007, he was 30th in WR pts and 33 in Pts per week. OK, so maybe you start 3 WR. That makes him a starter...barely. None the less, it also puts him at a strata where he's barely better than the next 10. So, my point is simply you would not be kicking yourself for letting him get away if you took someone else at 5 and he wasn't there at 6. Well, at least you wouldn't be kicking yourself once the year was under way.

 

 

OK. I was just trying to understand what you meant.

 

I agree at that point in the draft swinging for the fences, trying to get someone who could break out, is often worth the gamble. From the 7th to 9th rounds I often don't find any value so I take risks.

[FishFreak]

Would you say that CJ has at least a 50/50 chance of being great this year? I don't think that's too much of a stretch based on his freakish talent and the fact that I've heard nothing but praise coming from the camp.

 

So, should one expect better than 50/50 chance of being great from that spot? Let's see...

 

He seems to be going around late 40s, early 50s. What did that yield last year:

 

 

 

So, about 50% is what we're talking about. 5 of the 11 guys taken around there turned out to be very good to great, 5 were nothing you'd miss, and 1 was a D that was worthy of a starting spot but only marginally better than the next 10 or so.

 

So, that doesn't seem to be a bad place to take a guy who's got the body to change the position.

 

 

I'm not so sure I agree with your logic. Many picks made COULD be great or have a 50/50 chance of being great but is that really good odds? There are no guarantees in fantasy but I at least like to roll with players I feel strongly about...right or wrong. I just feel like Roy OR CJ will put up stud numbers and I'm not quite sure who it will be. CJ has the upside and freakish physical tools but Roy is playing for a new contract if I'm not mistaken. I'll let someone else go with that 50/50 choice.