McBoog Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I have never been big on making predictions across the board. I do like to look down the road for my team, the Chargers, and be honest about their chances. Here is what I see walking into the Chargers/Colts game. The Colts have clearly been on a roll. Mannning has been a stud getting through and playing on a bad wheel. What I don't think has been addressed is the puffball schedule that the Colts have faced this year. Last weeks Titans game was a "goin' through the motions" game on both sides. Argue different, but the mind set of EVERY player and coach on the field was don't get hurt and be fresh for the playoffs. When it really counted, the Titans beat the Colts. The Colts struggled against some pretty soft opponents, Cincy and Cleveland to name two games. The Chargers basically sucked for much of the season. The beginning of the season was not a surprise to me, particularly because of how beaten up the team was going into camp and the beginning of the year. The O-line in particular was a problem and the defense was horrid. Rivera has them playing better, but I don't see major improvement until next year when he can have this group from day one. Just like last year, LT and Gates enter this game with dings, but nothing compared to last year. These injuries are more significant for this game than for following ones if the Bolts can advance. The Chargers season, if nothing else has been filled with controversy, disappointment and adversity. Call it a miracle they are in the playoffs, but they are. They have looked a lot like the team from last year recently, but also against struggling teams. Putting 52 up on ANY NFL team is noteworthy. The difficulties in season, I think makes them mentally tougher for the play-offs. I do understand how the Colts are favored, and in just about every expert pick forum I have looked at, I have seen only one pick for the Chargers (out of maybe 50 "experts". This surprises me since the line is less that 2 and Accuscore has the game very close (one point) and only a 53% win. Even our own DD has picked "BREES" to have a solid game, but still looks for a big Colt victory. As close as Vegas has this game, and you know they have to know something to make that line, it is interesting that almost everyone gives the the Chargers little chance of even making this a close game. It is exactly this attitude that makes me feel better about this game than maybe I should. The Chargers are a talented and resilient team that will play with a "chip". Any "revenge" for losing in last year's playoff game to the Chargers is negated by the National "diss" they are getting right now, the fact the game is in very rowdy "Q" (Charger fans, as fair-weather as they are in general, do show up when it matters), and their close loss earlier in the season give them just as much desire to win this game. Both teams have tested, experienced play-off rosters and know what they have to bring to the table. All that "history" stuff is a wash with teams like these. The key to the game for me is the Chargers O-line and getting pressure on Manning without Merriman. Freeney and Mathis will change this game and be the difference if the Chargers are forced to pass playing catch-up. The Chargers O-line has started to finally play like they did last year. Wearing down teams and taking over in the second half. The ability to get whoever is running the ball (expect to see a lot of Sproles and Hester), is going to make the difference. The Chargers need to limit possessions and shorten the game by keeping the two pass rushers on their heals and pounding that smallish defense. Sure the Colts D has given up only six TDs in the air, but who have they played that can throw it like the Bolts? Two of those six were by Rivers after all. The Chargers D is improving under Rivera, but as far as new schemes or systems, they are the same bunch. Rivera has simplified and threw in a few twists to match the personnel better, but his system will not be in place until next year (if he is still there). They are playing better than the first meeting, but the damage of what Teddy C did is going to take an off-season and camp to fix. They are clearly playing much better than at the beginning of the year. It is always better to look at the last few games for a sense of how a team is playing as opposed to a whole season. The weather should not be a factor, but the field is in poor shape from three games played on it in the last couple weeks. This should favor the team that runs the ball better. I for one see another pretty classic and exciting game between these two teams. They know each other well and always seem to have games with wild twists and turns in the action. If it is a close game, I think the Colts are more likely to win it (along the Vegas line). This is probably the most likely outcome. If either team is going to win "big", I think is is more likely the Chargers at home, than the Colts on the road (yeah, call me a homer). So, as a homer, wanting the Chargers to win, I think they have to win by 9 or more to pull it off. And since I think the Chargers are going to win (what a shock, huh? But, I have picked against them in the playoffs) I see them pulling off a win. Manning and the Colts move the ball well but bog down and have to settle for field goals. Rivers has a journeyman type, but very efficient game and the Chargers move the ball just as well but are more successful punching it in, benefiting from better field position due to special teams dominance. I see both Sproles and Scifres having a major impact in the outcome of the game, giving the Bolts a lot of short fields and pinning Manning and Co. deep for too many long drive situations to keep up. Also, look for Naanee to grab a few passes that would generally go to Gates for big plays. Chargers 34 - Colts 23. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 (edited) Nice write up. I give the Chargers a very big chance to pull this game out. I wouldn't count on a missed FG at the end to win it for them though. As you said, I think they need to be up by more than a FG in the closing minutes to pull this one out. It's a new season...anything can happen. The key to the game for me is the Chargers O-line and getting pressure on Manning without Merriman. Let's just hope their pass rush is better than the TB game. It was non-existent. If anything is there downfall this season, its the lack of a pass rush. Edited January 2, 2009 by tazinib1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I am very nervous about this game . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Colts 48 Chargers 6 After the game, Phillip Rivers whines to the media about the coach, the defense and Tomlinson, gets fired, and starts a moving company with Ryan Leaf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Colts 48 Chargers 6 After the game, Phillip Rivers whines to the media about the coach, the defense and Tomlinson, gets fired, and starts a moving company with Ryan Leaf. Leaf is the QB's coach at West Texas A&M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 One thing to remember about the vegas line, it is not expert opinions about the game itself but instead about conventional wisdom and what number gets an even set of bets on either side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 And the Colts schedule wasn't that much different from the Chargers except the Colts already beat the Chargers in SD this year. SD has only won eight games and five of those came against the weakest division in the NFL - the AFC West. Otherwise they were only 3-7 on the season. Outside their own division, their only wins were NYJ, NE and @TB - all teams that failed to reach the playoffs. The Colts have won every game since week eight including @PIT, NE and @SD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 (edited) They also won vs. BALT, at MIN, vs. TEN. That's 6 wins against play-off teams. Edited January 2, 2009 by CaptainHook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 And the Colts schedule wasn't that much different from the Chargers except the Colts already beat the Chargers in SD this year. SD has only won eight games and five of those came against the weakest division in the NFL - the AFC West. Otherwise they were only 3-7 on the season. Outside their own division, their only wins were NYJ, NE and @TB - all teams that failed to reach the playoffs. The Colts have won every game since week eight including @PIT, NE and @SD. So.....what your saying is....You don't give the Chargers a chance in hell to win do ya! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I'll sum it up quickly: the Chargers blew their emotional wad and are due for a letdown. Colts win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I don't agree with this assesment but nice writeup nonetheless. KC Joyner had a nice article earlier this week that analyzed division win % and how it correlated with SuperBowl winners. Now I know this is only wildcard weekend and no one is in the SB yet, however... Basically, from 1977-current , 25/30 SB winners came from one of the top 3 divisions (based on that divisions win % for the season). On the flip side, when speaking of the bottom division winners, Joyner says this: There were six divisions from 1970 through 2001, and only one time during that era did a team that came from the division with the worst win percentage win a Super Bowl (1999 St. Louis Rams). That trend has continued from 2002 to 2007 with playoff teams originating from the eighth-ranked division. Those teams have only one playoff win, when St. Louis beat in-division rival Seattle in the 2004 wild-card round. The teams from the No. 7 division haven't fared much better than those from the No. 8 division, as they have only 10 total wins, with six of those coming in the wild-card round. This season finds ARI in the 8th place division and SDC comes from the 7th ranked division. Something tells me there's some merit to this analysis and keep your expectations low for the Cardinals and Chargers this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I am very nervous about this game . . . As am I. The Chargers are on a roll right now and the Colts haven't been able to run the ball or stop the run all year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 (edited) Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 against the Colts. Each time the Chargers seemed to be the underdog. - 2008, Colts won as the Chargers were blown out in the first half, came back to take the lead... but left 90 seconds for Manning to get in Vinatieri FG range for the win. - 2007, Chargers upset a 9 point favorite Colt team in the play-offs last year. This was with Turner filling in for LT, a gimpy to non-existent Gates, and Volek filling in for Rivers. - 2005, Colts were undefeated at 13-0 and the Chargers blew out the Colts to end their chance at destiny. Colts are on a 9 game win streak, though last week the Titans rested everyone. They have beaten plenty of play-off teams this year, so it's a tested team. They did struggle with crappy teams like the Browns, Bengals and Lions, so they aren't unbeatable. Some may say with such a long streak that they are due for a loss. Chargers are on a 4 game win streak. During that win streak they have averaged 37 points a game (34, 22, 41, 52). The offense has been clicking. Chargers are at home, which helps a little. These teams match up very well with each other. Neither has a dominating defense. Colts' Bob Sanders is expected to suit up, but how effective he'll be is anyone's guess. I think that the Colts should be bigger favorites since Merriman is out, Gates would be out if the game was played today, Floyd (deep threat) probably isn't playing, and Tomlinson has a groin pull. Colts mainly rested last week while the Chargers played for their play-off lives. An emotional letdown could happen. A lot of people dwell on records when deciding who should win. Luckily everyone is 0-0 right now. I expect the Chargers to lose as so many things are stacked against them, but I'm hoping for a miracle run like the Giants, Colts, and Steelers the last 3 years. He who kicks field goals instead of getting touchdowns loses this game. Edited January 2, 2009 by Riffraff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I picked a crapload of Chargers in Smackbowl so I'd say it's safe to predict a Colts victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Colts 27 - Chargers 23 I think Colts get it done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Vatican Hitsquad Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Leaf is the QB's coach at West Texas A&M he was fired for asking a player to sell him Oxy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Vatican Hitsquad Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Colts 48 Chargers 6 come on, you're just fooling around. Colts 42 Chargers 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msaint Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Gates now very questionable..high ankle sprain...more VJax than usual? :shrug" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Colts 48 Chargers 6 Naw, Kaeding can actually MAKE the extra point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 (edited) Naw, Kaeding can actually MAKE the extra point. HA HA HA!!! Edited January 3, 2009 by AtomicCEO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Is Sanders healthy? If he is, I don't see Indy losing this game. SD has been on a tear, but their secondary is still pretty suspect. Peyton is a man on a mission this year and will cut them up if they don't get serious, bruising pressure on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Is Sanders healthy? If he is, I don't see Indy losing this game. Coach Tony Dungy said Tuesday that he's counting on SS Bob Sanders (knee) to play in the Colts' Wild Card round game at San Diego.Sanders will suit up Saturday and take it week to week from there. He played in only six games during the regular season due to multiple leg injuries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdrudge Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 As am I. The Chargers are on a roll right now and the Colts haven't been able to run the ball or stop the run all year.As compared to LT, Addai and Rhodes combined are pretty close to the same, statistically speaking, in yards, TDs, and yards/carry. And SD hasn't been able to stop the pass all year long either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Indy 31 SD 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 From San Diego's perspective the health of Gates and LT is the key to this game. If both are injured as severely as the Chargers are saying (groin and abdominal strain for LT and a high ankle sprain for Gates) then I think the Colts win by at least 10. If the Bolts injury report is a smoke screen (and who really knows with the Chargers anymore?? ), then a 3 to 10 point Charger victory is possible. In any case the game should be great entertainment!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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