Bronco Billy Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 (edited) Isn't that really the only thing we can go by, since he's never been asked to carry the load until now? No, actually it's a pretty weak indicator. Being asked to be the featured RB for a stretch of only 3 games, especially at the end of the season when other players on D have been going full time for 16 games, to predict success is as bad as using keg's 21+ carries sample (and its 2.09 ypc) for predicting his lack of success as a featured RB, simply because of how isolated the data is. It would seem far more likely an indicator to use a much larger sample set (like keg's stats of his production going from <11 carries to the 11 to 20 carry level, or his production in his first two years as opposed to last year when his opportunities increased significantly). Edited July 10, 2009 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 or theseEmmitt Smith - 216lbs. Marshall Faulk - 211lbs. Curtis Martin - 210lbs. Barry Sanders - 200lbs. As far as MJD's height limitations, I would imagine his lower center of gravity (see Barry Sanders) is part of his success. Football is a game of leverage and balance as well as strength and speed. Would you like me to post a listing of 200 lb RBs in NFL history who were turds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron2112 Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 (edited) I kinda liken him to Napolean Kaufman(MJD does have a thicker lower body), both explosive, smaller guys that can hit the house every time they touch the ball. He surely can go for 1300 and 15 TD's but how often can he duplicate that?... if they do try to get that out of him IMO he's gonna be worn down at the end of the season when they really need him, and he's gonna start getting dinged up. Best to get a guy to hammer on the D and bring MJD in to outrun a tired out defense. Edited July 10, 2009 by byron2112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 especially at the end of the season when other players on D have been going full time for 16 games That is a nebulous statement. It's hard to say how fresh or healthy those individual defensive players were for those games unless you plan to do some research. Obviously some had played a lot and some had played less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Would you like me to post a listing of 200 lb RBs in NFL history who were turds? Also, MJD is actually 5'7" 208. Yes, he is short, but at that size and weight he packs one heck of a wallup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Would you like me to post a listing of 200 lb RBs in NFL history who were turds? There's a ton, but much like in the Portis thread http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=288619 I'm citing examples (in the same way DMD did and you praised him ) that fit the rarity and not the norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Would you like me to post a listing of 200 lb RBs in NFL history who were turds? I'd say the jury's come in as to whether or not MJD is a turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Why exactly is his stamina question nonsense? Jones-Drew is 5'-8" and 200 lbs dripping wet. Look at the other top RBs: AD 6'-2" 220 lbs (and hoping to play at 225 lbs this year) Jackson 6'-3" 229 lbs Forte 6'-1" 221 lbs Turner 5'-10" 237 lbs There's advantage in mass in the NFL when a RB has to carry a full load. Guys just wear down with all the collisions, and simple physics points directly at the advantage that heavier RBs have in those collisions. There's a reason why Peterson wants to play at 10 lbs heavier than he was last season - you think he's doing that so he can look good filling out the seat of his pants more? There is also the evidence I posted about Jones-Drew's production decreasing as his work load increased last season. That's a legitimate concern, especially given his smallish stature. That isn't to say Jones-Drew can't have a great year. He obviously can, and he is clearly talented enough to do so. But there is a concern with his size when he has to carry a full load. To call that concern nonsense is nonsense. actually MJD has one of the larger BMI's in the NFL... larger than: Jacobs,Peyton Hillis, D.Ward, Lendale White,Larry Johnson, Barber,Chestor Taylor, Steven Jackson and many more. larger than most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 actually MJD has one of the larger BMI's in the NFL...larger than: Jacobs,Peyton Hillis, D.Ward, Lendale White,Larry Johnson, Barber,Chestor Taylor, Steven Jackson and many more. larger than most. That's great. Maybe an NFL team can hire on a 4'-2" 170 lb dude to be their featured RB...it would be like trying to tackle a black hole, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 That's great. Maybe an NFL team can hire on a 4'-2" 170 lb dude to be their featured RB...it would be like trying to tackle a black hole, right? take it easy. i just thought people might find that interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 I would venture to guess that MJD is one of the harder RB's to tackle in the NFL. I've seen him spin off tackles numerous times with his low center of gravity and great balance. I remember one imparticular last year against Urlacher. MJD is short, but anything but small in stature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 take it easy. i just thought people might find that interesting Hehe, that's just BB being BB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Would you like me to post a listing of 200 lb RBs in NFL history who were turds? Obviously the point is that size is not a great indicator of whether MJD will be a stud next year or not. I didn't think he would be a good candidate, but the more I think about it the more I like him this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 I kinda liken him to Napolean Kaufman(MJD does have a thicker lower body), both explosive, smaller guys that can hit the house every time they touch the ball. He surely can go for 1300 and 15 TD's but how often can he duplicate that?... if they do try to get that out of him IMO he's gonna be worn down at the end of the season when they really need him, and he's gonna start getting dinged up. Best to get a guy to hammer on the D and bring MJD in to outrun a tired out defense. Gotta give props for mentioning my all-time favorite athlete!! Been a while since I've heard that name. I don't think it is a great comparison since Napoleon was so slight in stature, but still gotta give props. The one thing that has been overlooked in this thread is the thing that will be the main cause of him underachieving, if he does in fact fail to be a top five type back. Teams have never spent their whole week preparing to try to stop MJD. Even when MJD was their biggest weapon, Fred Taylor was still the starter, and teams and coordinators still respected him enough to worry about stopping his style. MJD could still come in and change the pace. Now he has to be the pace setter. Teams will start preparing to stop him exclusively, starting every monday morning. The opposing team's goal and emphasis the whole week will be simply to figure out how to slow him down. This is going to require MJD to step his game up. He'll have games where teams know exactly what he wants to do, and he'll have to find new ways to go about it. Some teams will try to string him out, some teams will try to corral him inside. He is going to have to learn how to adjust on the fly. There are certain obstacles that being "the man" creates. As mentioned, the few times he has had that opportunity in the past, the defenses have managed to figure out how to slow him down. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Gotta give props for mentioning my all-time favorite athlete!! Been a while since I've heard that name. I don't think it is a great comparison since Napoleon was so slight in stature, but still gotta give props. The one thing that has been overlooked in this thread is the thing that will be the main cause of him underachieving, if he does in fact fail to be a top five type back. Teams have never spent their whole week preparing to try to stop MJD. Even when MJD was their biggest weapon, Fred Taylor was still the starter, and teams and coordinators still respected him enough to worry about stopping his style. MJD could still come in and change the pace. Now he has to be the pace setter. Teams will start preparing to stop him exclusively, starting every monday morning. The opposing team's goal and emphasis the whole week will be simply to figure out how to slow him down. This is going to require MJD to step his game up. He'll have games where teams know exactly what he wants to do, and he'll have to find new ways to go about it. Some teams will try to string him out, some teams will try to corral him inside. He is going to have to learn how to adjust on the fly. There are certain obstacles that being "the man" creates. As mentioned, the few times he has had that opportunity in the past, the defenses have managed to figure out how to slow him down. We'll see. I strugle to understand the statement in bold. I posted his stats for the 3 games last year where he carried the load. He had 22, 23 and 9 pts respectively, but the week he only had 9 was against Balt. I agree with Bronco Billy's assesment that this is not a big enough sample size to be able to say if he will be able to carry the load, but to this point that's all we have to go by. Like I've stated before, I think MJD is a special talent. He's been told his entire life that he's too small to play football and he just keeps proving people wrong. I think he will continue to prove people wrong, namely Seahawks21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 I strugle to understand the statement in bold. I posted his stats for the 3 games last year where he carried the load. He had 22, 23 and 9 pts respectively, but the week he only had 9 was against Balt. I agree with Bronco Billy's assesment that this is not a big enough sample size to be able to say if he will be able to carry the load, but to this point that's all we have to go by. Like I've stated before, I think MJD is a special talent. He's been told his entire life that he's too small to play football and he just keeps proving people wrong. I think he will continue to prove people wrong, namely Seahawks21 Still, those weren't exactly his most productive games. I agree that is a small sample, and prefaced my statement by saying as much. I think MJD is great!! I think he is a special talent! I think he is as explosive as any player in this entire league, I just have questions as to whether or not he can handle 25-30 touches on a weekly basis, especially with entire defenses following him everywhere he goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FishFreak Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Still, those weren't exactly his most productive games. I agree that is a small sample, and prefaced my statement by saying as much. I think MJD is great!! I think he is a special talent! I think he is as explosive as any player in this entire league, I just have questions as to whether or not he can handle 25-30 touches on a weekly basis, especially with entire defenses following him everywhere he goes. Seriously, how many backs can handle 400-480 touches over a 16 game schedule? NOT MANY, IF NOT NONE so let's not get crazy. If MJD gets 300-350 total touches for the year he will put up sick stats. He was already fantasy gold getting 200-250 touches per year in his shared role with Fred Taylor in years past. Like Capt. Stanky and I have been saying all along...what's not to like about this guy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 just something for people to chew on Rushing Attempts 1 thru 10 2008 137 attempts, 621 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDs, 37 1st downs 2007 155 attempts 673 yards. 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs, 45 1st downs 2006 118 attempts, 757 yards, 6.4 ypc, 11 TDs, 38 1st downs Rushing Attempts 11 thru 20 2008 55 attempts, 193 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2 TDs , 9 1st downs 2007 26 attempts, 143 yards. 5.5 ypc, 1 TDs, 5 1st downs 2006 42 attempts, 171 yards. 4.1 ypc, 2 TDs, 7 1st downs Rushing Attempts 21 thru 30 2008 5 attempts, 10 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs 2007 NONE in 2007 2006 6 attempts, 13 yards, 2.2 ypc, 0 TDs, 1 1st downs Now lets look a bit deeper at the numbers: 2008: carries 1-10 converted 27% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 16% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 20% of carries into 1st downs(5 carries is really to small a sample size) 2007: carries 1-10 converted 29% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 19% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 N/A NO CARRIES 2006: carries 1-10 converted 32% of carries into 1st downs carries 11-20 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs carries 21-30 converted 17% of carries into 1st downs(again only 6 carries and that really is to small a sample size) wow, people really stayed away from the above stats like the plague....let me re-organize them a bit for some of you: carries 1-10 2006 118 carries 6.4YPC 11TDs 2008 137 carries 4.5YPC 10TDs 2007 155 carries 4.3YPC 9TDs for those that dont see the correlation as the carries increase the YPC decreases and TDs also decreased carries 11-20 2007 26 carries 5.5YPC 1TD 2006 42 carries 4.1YPC 2TDs 2008 55 carries 3.5YPC 2TDs again, as his carries increased his YPC went south...his TD to carry ratio did remain pretty much the same there really isnt a need to look at 21+ carries because there aren't enough to really use...but then again maybe that there are so few that it does say something and now lets take a look at effectiveness (converting carries to 1st downs) carries 1-20 2006 28% 2007 27% 2008 24% Looks like the rigors of an NFL career are starting to show on MJD....even if the %'s dont seem like a big deal to some of you they do show that has his carries increase his production decreases....the reason I lumped carries 1-20 together for the final stat was to see how his production has progressed because you dont just erase carries and start from scratch....this might be the year that MJD shows an increase in his effectiveness but then again it might not...or maybe the Jags will limit his touches to get the most out of him. my only point is that people need to look at how MJDs effectiveness does spiral downward as his workload has increased....I am not saying he will be a bust but I am saying that there is enough statistical evidence to show pause... Here are some tidbits from a post I started at the end of last FF season: Here's some analysis I did for the games that FTaylor and GJones were hurt: MJD's first attempt at being "The Man": Vs GB 12 carries for 48 & TD 4 rec for 22 & TD He didn't get allot of carries, but the 2 TD's made up for it. I still want to see him have a game of at least 25 touches before the season's over. It would just make me feel better going into next year. MJD's 2nd game getting all the carries: Vs Indy 20 car. for 91 7 rec for 71 Roughly 23 pts in a PPR league, without a TD. This is what I wanted to see. MJD getting over 25 touches in a game. I understand that people are concerned about his consistency. Trust me, if he's getting at least 70% of the action at RB, he will be far more consistent going forward. MJD's 3rd game getting all the carries Vs Balt 23 car. for 78 1 rec for 10 yds I'd be curious to see how many other backs had 78 rushing yards against Balt last year. All in all, I think MJD did pretty good in his audition with the majority of the carries at the end of last year. Isn't that really the only thing we can go by, since he's never been asked to carry the load until now? If you want to check out the entire thread it's here Also keep in mind how bad the rest of the Jags were playing at the end of last year and it makes these numbers look even more impressive. did you really just link to an MJD thread that had ZERO posts by me in it you should be ashamed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 I don't know man, at some point it kind of sounds like people complaining about Forte's YPC. At the end of the day, if he gets the touches, he'll be viable and deserving of a high round pick. Is he getting taken higher than maybe he should? Probably, but that is more an indictment on the other RBs than it is of MJD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 good post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Largent Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 wow, people really stayed away from the above stats like the plague....let me re-organize them a bit for some of you:carries 1-10 2006 118 carries 6.4YPC 11TDs 2008 137 carries 4.5YPC 10TDs 2007 155 carries 4.3YPC 9TDs for those that dont see the correlation as the carries increase the YPC decreases and TDs also decreased carries 11-20 2007 26 carries 5.5YPC 1TD 2006 42 carries 4.1YPC 2TDs 2008 55 carries 3.5YPC 2TDs again, as his carries increased his YPC went south...his TD to carry ratio did remain pretty much the same there really isnt a need to look at 21+ carries because there aren't enough to really use...but then again maybe that there are so few that it does say something and now lets take a look at effectiveness (converting carries to 1st downs) carries 1-20 2006 28% 2007 27% 2008 24% Looks like the rigors of an NFL career are starting to show on MJD....even if the %'s dont seem like a big deal to some of you they do show that has his carries increase his production decreases....the reason I lumped carries 1-20 together for the final stat was to see how his production has progressed because you dont just erase carries and start from scratch....this might be the year that MJD shows an increase in his effectiveness but then again it might not...or maybe the Jags will limit his touches to get the most out of him. my only point is that people need to look at how MJDs effectiveness does spiral downward as his workload has increased....I am not saying he will be a bust but I am saying that there is enough statistical evidence to show pause... did you really just link to an MJD thread that had ZERO posts by me in it you should be ashamed check the o-line over the past 3 seasons....highly doubt MJD is wearing down at 24.....give your head a shake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 (edited) check the o-line over the past 3 seasons....highly doubt MJD is wearing down at 24.....give your head a shake. I never specifically said he was wearing down but to be honest after their first NFL snap most players are starting to wear down....while I think MJD will be NFL/Fantasy relevant for a few more years you do have to realize that the average life of an NFL RB is short, very short...RBs that perform at top levels for 5+ years are far from the norm...again I am not saying that MJD cant be one of those players.. see what yo.u like but anyway you cut those numbers it shows that the more he is used the less productive he is... IE: from 06-08 or from carry 1-10 thru 11+ for each year...not once have I said that MJD wont be a top 5 back...but what I have consistently said is that I think many are expecting an unrealistic uptick in carries for MJD just because Freddie is gone... and it seems that many equate Freddie being gone into 24+ carries/game for MJD....also, fwiw I am about as unbiased as you can get with MJD this year...by that I mean that I don't own him in any of my dynasty leagues, don't participate in any re-draft leagues, I am not a Jags hater or homer...just someone that puts a bit more into stats then some others...don't worry if I am wrong I will still be here so that I can be ridiculed. Edited July 15, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 I don't know man, at some point it kind of sounds like people complaining about Forte's YPC. At the end of the day, if he gets the touches, he'll be viable and deserving of a high round pick. Is he getting taken higher than maybe he should? Probably, but that is more an indictment on the other RBs than it is of MJD. Simple, yet consise. Perfact post there, Square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulOttCarruth Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 (edited) Seriously, how many backs can handle 400-480 touches over a 16 game schedule? NOT MANY, IF NOT NONE so let's not get crazy. If MJD gets 300-350 total touches for the year he will put up sick stats. He was already fantasy gold getting 200-250 touches per year in his shared role with Fred Taylor in years past. Like Capt. Stanky and I have been saying all along...what's not to like about this guy? This felt like a familiar conversation. Felt eerily similar to the great Joseph Addai debate circa 2007. So I looked it up . . . Same debaters. Same debate. http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...76&hl=addai This is what you had to say, FishFreak. Last year Addai averaged 4.8 per rush. Let's say he does wear down a bit to a very respectable 4.3 per rush. Assuming he has a bigger workload of say 280 carries, that still gets him over 1,200 yds. Now suppose he keeps a high YPC and and gets over 300 rushing attempts, you're looking at possibly 1,400 rushing yards. Factor in more catches and receiving yards and you have a stud. He's also money for 10+ TD's. Like I said before, expect Edge numbers. He's in the Colts O with a nobody RB backing him up. What's not to like? So the question is "is there a lesson to be learned from Addai's" value spiking to an ADP of 5 in 2007? I'm more in the camp of taking caution with MJD this year. But I'm open to the idea of MJD following DWill rather than Addai. Edited July 15, 2009 by PaulOttCarruth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 This felt like a familiar conversation. Felt eerily similar to the great Joseph Addai debate circa 2007. So I looked it up . . . Same debaters. Same debate. http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...76&hl=addai This is what you had to say, FishFreak. So the question is "is there a lesson to be learned from Addai's" value spiking to an ADP of 5 in 2007? I'm more in the camp of taking caution with MJD this year. But I'm open to the idea of MJD following DWill rather than Addai. Addai and MJD aren't really being compared above, are they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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