Jets at Pats

[Rovers]

This is a very difficult game for me to try and do matchup previews on. Two coaches that can do something completely different than one might expect. I can say this however, the Jets probably match up against the Pats worse than they do vs any other team still in the playoffs.

 

Jets on Defense

 

It was easier when Moss was a Pat. Revis, done. Brady can hurt you with all sorts of weapons, and if you shut one down, another can kill you. You have Welker who even lines up in the backfield, Branch, the type of WR Cromartie has the most trouble with (Cromartie is fast, but can't stay with good change of direction WR's like Branch and Welker), then Edelman, and the two TE's. It's a nightmare for the Jets to cover all of these targets.

 

NE won't be able to run up the middle with much success, as the Jets' front seven and LB's are tough up the gut, so BJGE isn't likely to hurt them. However, the Jets LB's are not fast enough to outside contain or cover these TE's. Woodhead presents a matchup problem both outside and in pass recieving. The Jets can't just put Revis on a WR. I can only guess at what Ryan may do on defense, but he may repeat what he did against the Colts, even more so.

 

I think Ryan will use a lot of nickel and dime defense, with Revis at the nickel to get him more involved in the over the middle throws that remains the Jets' D biggest weakness. I can see some 3-2-6 being thrown at Brady. Less blitzing, but when they do, it will come from the DB's. Flood the field with DB's and dare the Pats to run.

 

NE on Defense

 

Simple. Stop the run, make Sanchez throw and force him to make mistakes. Given how inaccurate he was against the Colts, this is a no brainer. Dare the Jets to throw. Try to get the Jets away from their ball control running game. Rayn won't make the mistake of getting too cute again, given the disaster of attacking NE with a hurry up a month ago.

 

Jets on Offense

 

Run the ball. Double TE sets. FB lead blocking. Try to keep the ground and pound going and keep the ball way from Brady. Take a shot or two, but look for 75% runs on first down. Keep the game close, try to wear down the NE defense into the second half.

 

NE on Offense

 

Get the mismatches going and attack the Jets' LB's and safeties with passes, especially over the middle. Get an LB on Gornkowski or Hernandez. Get a safety on Welker. Use Woodhead out of the backfield. He has hurt the jets with his speed this year, and he'll likely do it again. He also has the speed to break one up the middle if he can squirt to the second level.

 

Conclussion

 

It won't be a blowout, but the NE offense has too many weapons and the Jets' LB's and safeties can't match up. Brady will know where Revis is on every play and he'll avoid him and won't turn the ball over. He might hit Branch long if Cromartie bites on a double move. Woodhead will break 100 yards combined pass/rush. The Jets will keep it close, and have some decent numbers rushing but will fail in the red zone.

 

Pats, 24-17

Edited January 13, 2011 by Rovers

[Hugh 0ne]

Disagree completely, this game is gonna be a blowout. Pats 41 - Jets 13.

[BeeR]

Yep. It Jets are even in it by the 4th I'll be amazed.

[nuke'em ttg]

Disagree completely, this game is gonna be a blowout. Pats 41 - Jets 13.

 

 

wurd, take yer pillow ta work Rex

[Jackass]

My prediction: Pats will be ahead by so many points that they'll be able to play the 4th quarter bare foot.

[Rovers]

Lots of opinions here, but not much commentary to support it.

 

Anyone have other thoughts on how these two teams game plan each other? Which part of my preview do you disagree with? Think Brady passes for 400? Think the Pats shut down the Jets running game? Thaink the Jets will go in throwing and Sanchez blows a tire?

 

Opinions are fine, discussion is better.

[keggerz]

I don't know if it is this game or the next or if they make it to the SB but I think the Pats youth on D is going to end up costing them a win.

[Wpob]

I don't know if it is this game or the next or if they make it to the SB but I think the Pats youth on D is going to end up costing them a win.

 

Sanchez gets completely rattled. Ryan panics as he falls behind by 28 early and puts in Brunnell. Pats knock Brunnell out of the game and anchez comes back in shell shocke dnad throws three picks. Patriots ease up a little in the end and win 49-3. For the Jets, they really needed this storm to happened Sunday.

[Caveman_Nick]

I don't know if it is this game or the next or if they make it to the SB but I think the Pats youth on D is going to end up costing them a win.

 

It won't be the youth so much as the number of d-lineman they have gob through this year. I am not saying it will cost them a win, but if something on defense costs them it will be that.

 

The biggest concern for me is the lack of a meaningful game in 3 weeks. Rovs, I think your general assessment of the match ups is pretty good (save that I think BJGE deserves a little more respect), but with that in mind I think it's a few weeks off that will keep the game close. If they had to work in week 16 I might feel a little differently. I still think it's NE's ballgame to lose, but considering where the teams are coming from it will be a knockdown fight.

[Rovers]

It won't be the youth so much as the number of d-lineman they have gob through this year. I am not saying it will cost them a win, but if something on defense costs them it will be that.

 

The biggest concern for me is the lack of a meaningful game in 3 weeks. Rovs, I think your general assessment of the match ups is pretty good (save that I think BJGE deserves a little more respect), but with that in mind I think it's a few weeks off that will keep the game close. If they had to work in week 16 I might feel a little differently. I still think it's NE's ballgame to lose, but considering where the teams are coming from it will be a knockdown fight.

 

Don't get me wrong, I respect the law firm, but RB's like him generally don't have good games against the Jets. Woodhead scares me more. Now, on the other hand, if Ryan does play a lot of 3-2-6, then BJGE could have a better day, but that is what the Jets would prefer to see, more running than passing.

 

I think NE goes out to a 7 point lead, controls the game into the 4th quarter, and gives up a TD late, pretty much once the game was already decided. I can see NE having a 24-10 lead half way through the 4th.

 

The Jets do have a punche's chance. They did after all beat NE early in the year, and won at PIT. They are better on the road than at home this year, but they usually stink it up at Foxboro. If they won, would it be a bigger upset than the Seahawks over the Saints?

[Caveman_Nick]

Don't get me wrong, I respect the law firm, but RB's like him generally don't have good games against the Jets. Woodhead scares me more. Now, on the other hand, if Ryan does play a lot of 3-2-6, then BJGE could have a better day, but that is what the Jets would prefer to see, more running than passing.

 

I think NE goes out to a 7 point lead, controls the game into the 4th quarter, and gives up a TD late, pretty much once the game was already decided. I can see NE having a 24-10 lead half way through the 4th.

 

The Jets do have a punche's chance. They did after all beat NE early in the year, and won at PIT. They are better on the road than at home this year, but they usually stink it up at Foxboro. If they won, would it be a bigger upset than the Seahawks over the Saints?

 

I don't think it would be a huge upset. The teams split the season, and most people thought the Jets would take the division until after the second meeting.

[theprofessor]

This game will be much more competitive than the last one. I see Rex being a little more aggressive with the blitz than he was last week but he'll do it in spots. I think he learned something last week by not relying on the blitz so much and using his backers to defend the short, intermediate routes and stay home more. I think Brady would rather have them blitz than play more of a straight up defense.

 

If New England can neutralizel the jets ground game the jets are in trouble. The jets need to make a couple big plays in the kicking game to keep this one close. New England doesn't beat themselves so NY needs to take some risks in the kicking game to give themselves momentum and an advantage. If I'm Ryan I put Revis on Branch to take him away and put Cromartie on Tate.

 

Watching Ryan's press conferences this week ... will he ever learn? He continues to try to bait New England by pulling this Bellicek vs. Ryan stuff? Hey Rex .... newsflash ..... Bill doesn't get rattled by that stuff. He's had 2 weeks to prepare and he is the best scheme guy in the NFL. Spells trouble for the Jets ....

 

New England 30

New York 17

[Rovers]

I don't think Ryan was baiting anyone, and he knows it wouldn't mean anything to Belichick or help the Jets.

 

What Ryan was trying to do was obvious to me. He started off by saying these two teams are evenly matched talent-wise. He wanted to take the blame for the blowout in NE, and wanted to take the pressure off his players and put it on him, saying it was up to him to win this game and that he had the players to win. The last thing he wants if for the Jets players to think they don't belong on the field with the Pats after that drubbing.

 

Some of what Ryan says isn't calculated, but this was. Even the Jets players have been quoted acknowledging this angle, so it was fairly transparent at least to the players, but they still appreciate Ryan trying to take the heat and blame off of them. Ryan can act the bufoon, but he isn't stupid either. Should the Jets win, Ryan would give all of the credit to the players and take none. These are some of the reasons players like playing for Ryan. He won't even talk about how awful Sanchez was against Indy at all. Instead he talked about the last throw to Edwards. It's how this guy rolls as a coach.

 

I think he will dial up something different on defense against the Pats. The LB's just can't cover the NE TE's. The Jets LB's can play the run as good as any LB corp in the NFL, but their coverage skills are poor.

[Infinity]

Ok you faggy Pat fans. Lets sig line this diaper dirt

[Scooby's Hubby]

Revis needs to cover Branch full time. NYJ LBs are going to have to make plays on passingg first downs. Expect Brady to send his TE deep and look for Welker underneath running short out patterns. If the Jets D can keep the ball in front of them, then they can maybe keep this close enough. No quick TDs for NE, make Welker catch short routes and hit him.

[myhousekey]

I don't know if it is this game or the next or if they make it to the SB but I think the Pats youth on D is going to end up costing them a win.

This is how I've felt most of the season (and yet they keep winning).

At one point they were last in the league in total defense. They are up to 25th now overall (30th pass, 11th rush).

[Caveman_Nick]

This is how I've felt most of the season (and yet they keep winning).

At one point they were last in the league in total defense. They are up to 25th now overall (30th pass, 11th rush).

 

Bear in mind that: I am a homer and this is a "pie int eh sky" analysis.

 

I think that Belichick, who is famous for the whole "Bend but don't break"concept, has taken his core defensive scheme and modified it to be "Bend, don't break, and waste the heck out of the clock so long as we are ahead". I think that defensively this team gives up a lot of plays that a lot of other teams would not, but I think that it is all based in how BB is trying to work with the players he has.

 

He doesn't have a great pass rush.

He has an inexperienced secondary that could easily get burned for long plays if he kept those players up towards the line, and without a great pass rush the QB would have the time to wait.

 

So I think BB makes opponents grind down the field by his scheme by working the middle of the field. If you notice, for most of the season the Pats sub out their D-line on third down. I think this is to give the "fat guys" a rest on running downs. The secondary is where his youth, energy and stamina are, so most of the time he leaves that group alone.

 

Playing like this, it's a regular occurance for the Pats to stuff the run on early downs and play overall good defense on early downs against the deep ball. They still give up some short passes, but NFL offense usually has a run built in on downs 1 & 2 and/or takes a shot down the field in those downs. The pats get their opponents into third down a LOT. And they give up third down a LOT.

 

It took me a while to come up with this hypothesis. How does a team generally play good, tight D on first and second down, and then sub out their D;line and give up third down so regularly. The only answer I could come up with is scheme. Let the other team work their rear ends off to get a FG, and then have Brady tear down the field and get a TD. Trade that off a bunch of times and you are probably going to win.

 

Most teams try to grind the clock on offense when they have a lead. IMO BB is trying to grind the clock on both sides of the ball and has found a pretty successful way to do it.

 

Here are some numbers through week 14 They do not exactly prove out what I am saying, but it does speak about the issue son third down, the great red zone efficiency on offense, and some improvement on red zone defense. If you added in weeks 14-17 the disparity would be significantly greater as they won the last 3 games with a combined score of 103-37, and from week 12 on they outscored opponents, including 3 playoff teams and 2 other divisional games, 229-71. I think this is a maturation of the scheme, and I think it's success will grow with time.

 

Teams want to move the ball and save the clock on offense when they are down more than a score. Of course they do. So if you play them in a way that allows some ball movement but makes clock conservation difficult to achieve, the opposing offense might get out of "taking what you are giving them" and try to press into the teeth of what you are defending against. Seems to me to be a good summary of how the Pats D finished out the season.

 

It also seems to me to be a recipe for trouble for Mark Sanchez.

[loaf]

Ok you faggy Pat fans. Lets sig line this diaper dirt

Nice smack talk, Chick-fil-A

[rattsass]

I don't know if it is this game or the next or if they make it to the SB but I think the Pats youth on D is going to end up costing them a win.

That will be in the Superbowl, against the NFC champion to be determined in Atlanta this weekend. I see a grim day for the Jets.

[Hugh 0ne]

Opinions are fine, discussion is better.

 

Fair enough, you put a lot of thought into your initial post. Some of my thoughts:

 

The New England Patriots have thrown 37 TD's and 5 INT's. The New York Jet have thrown 20 TD's and 14 INT's. That's a difference of 17 TD's and 9 INT's. That's HUGH.

 

The New England Patriots have allowed 25 passing TD's, which is a lot, but there is no way the Jets passing offense can take advantage of that, based on what I posted above. Additionally, the Pats have 25 INT's, another bad sign for Sanchez.

 

The "vaunted" and "feared by all" Jets passing defense has allowed 24 passing TD's, and only have 12 INT's.

 

So, I don't even need to look any further. The Pats can and will throw the ball, and the Jets can't.

 

Oh, and then there's this: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010120600/2...@patriots/recap

 

And I know the Jets beat them earlier in the season, and if you want to hang your hat on that, I think you're in trouble for 2 reasons: First, everyone knows that the Pats are playing at a much higher level now then when they lost to the Jets, and second, this game is in New England again, and I'll refer you to the previous link to see how that turned out.

 

:waitsforRoverswrath:

Edited January 12, 2011 by Hugh 0ne

[Czarina]

I've heard this week on the radio (it was someone from the NFL network I think) who said that Sanchez's injury is the same type of thing that happened to Pennington. If it requires surgery to repair, he's out for 6-9 months. How bad do you think it is right now? It's a fine and dangerous line he's treading if this is true.

 

I think this game will be more competitive because I don't think Ryan will make all the same mistakes this time around. The Pats defense is incredibly young and they've been coming up HUGH with turnovers. They're definitely beatable though.

 

I would like to see someone grind that punk Cromartie deep into the turf, though. Whatta tool.

 

Alge Crumpler said it best when asked about the smack talk from the Jets this week: They take after their coach and we take after ours.

[Rovers]

Fair enough, you put a lot of thought into your initial post. Some of my thoughts:

 

The New England Patriots have thrown 37 TD's and 5 INT's. The New York Jet have thrown 20 TD's and 14 INT's. That's a difference of 17 TD's and 9 INT's. That's HUGH.

 

The New England Patriots have allowed 25 passing TD's, which is a lot, but there is no way the Jets passing offense can take advantage of that, based on what I posted above. Additionally, the Pats have 25 INT's, another bad sign for Sanchez.

 

The "vaunted" and "feared by all" Jets passing defense has allowed 24 passing TD's, and only have 12 INT's.

 

So, I don't even need to look any further. The Pats can and will throw the ball, and the Jets can't.

 

Oh, and then there's this: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010120600/2...@patriots/recap

 

And I know the Jets beat them earlier in the season, and if you want to hang your hat on that, I think you're in trouble for 2 reasons: First, everyone knows that the Pats are playing at a much higher level now then when they lost to the Jets, and second, this game is in New England again, and I'll refer you to the previous link to see how that turned out.

 

:waitsforRoverswrath:

 

Wrath? Naw, good post.

 

Interesting take. I'd hardly hang my hat on the September win... I did pick the Pats here after all. I just think it won't be a blow out, but I do think NE will be in control of the game early on, and win without having to sweat anything out in the 4th quarter. They will be in control and win comfortably.

 

Czar, I agree Cromartie is a complete tool bag. Was it classless for Brady to be pointing at the Jets sisdeline after going up 38-3? Yes. Cromartie still should have shut his yapper. He apparently has an equal amounf of difficulty keeping his fly zipped up. BTW, you do know Ryan said he voted Brady for MVP, right? And he deserves it.

 

These two teams really do despise each other.

 

As for sig line bets, after the ridiculous BS that went on last year... no thanks. I will however consider cash bets if I get 10 points.

[Caveman_Nick]

Was it classless for Brady to be pointing at the Jets sisdeline after going up 38-3? Yes.

 

I don't know that I would call it classless.

 

I think that if a player were to be gloating in an unprovoked manner over something that would be less than classy, but there's a lot of history that contains a lot of smack. Plenty of comments made by Jets personnel leading pu to that game, plenty of smack from them in the previous game, and who know what was said on the field earlier that night.

 

It's likely that Brady was just playing the smack game. That's not classless. It might not be the classiest thing a persona can do, but it's just a part of what happens on the field.

 

People throw the term "classless" around way too loosely.

[bpwallace49]

I see the key matchup being the Patriots TEs against the Lbs and safeties of the Jets. IMO Losing Leonhart will really really really be key here, and the TEs have a big day for the Patriots.

[gilthorp]

I think the Jets defense has lost their attacking mentality, and will be too conservative here.

 

Without sustained pressure on Brady, he will simply pick them apart and just chew them up. The only chance the Jets have is to blitz the crap out of him and roll the dice. I don't think they have the guts to do that because they know they'll only get 3 or 4 good enough drives out of their offense and don't want to risk going down 2 to 3 scores by the 2nd quarter.

 

I expect BGE to have an impact in the second half, but a both NE tight ends will be huge at the start of the game - let's face it, the Jets LB corp are good at attacking and stuffing, but I feel they are limited in their pass defense skills.

 

On paper, with turnovers being equal, the NE offense will control the clock, control the field position battle, and should have them up by at least 10-14 points at half. What happens from there ends up being anyone's guess. I can see this game being a 20 point victory for the Patsies, but also can see them sitting back to not get burned in the second half and allow the Jets to cover at a TD loss.