Ditkaless Wonders Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Schaub? Indeed. That is what I get from going from my failing memory rather than looking at a list of Q.B.'s In dynasty I might bump Kolb up a few places. He should be entering his prime, whatever that is, while some I have higher will be winding down their careers. Of course every year brings the possibility of a new wunderkid who I might rate higher. I think Kolb can be a solid, workmanlike Q.B. for a number of years. With the pass happy nature of the league workmanlike guys are falling out of favor, though I believe a team built on defense, special teams, the run, and solid but unspectacular offense could yet win it all again. I'm sure Bear and Raven fans hope so too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I am using his career starts and finishes, minus one game he started with a bunch of 2nd stringers which most would agree was an irrelevant football game. Like I said, I don't think we'll come to an agreement on this. We'll have to wait for the results. I could see where his ending up around a QB13/QB14 could lead to another great future debate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 (edited) I rest my case. I don't see Kolb as being any kind of reasonable risk for joining that group. That makes him nothing better than a QB16 for his career if he doesn't, and that makes him mediocre. You apparently see something in him that he hasn't shown consistently so far. So be it. We'll track this and see how it turns out. That, because after 7 starts he hasn't shown that he's one of the 16 best QBs in the league that he never will be? Do you realize how few QBs in the history of the league would pass that test? Edit to add: Unless I'm mistaken, Andrew Luck is also not among the 16 best QBs in the NFL right now either, so I guess he's also not worth a 1st round pick? Edited July 6, 2011 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 In dynasty I might bump Kolb up a few places. He should be entering his prime, whatever that is, while some I have higher will be winding down their careers. Of course every year brings the possibility of a new wunderkid who I might rate higher. I would put the top 3 QBs in the 2012 class - barring a nasty injury - ahead of Kolb in regard to career potential. I also think there will be one guy in this class who will break out and be a very solid QB, but can't figure out who it will be. Leaning towards Dalton being a surprise right now, but it is a crap shoot with this group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 That, because after 7 starts he hasn't shown that he's one of the 16 best QBs in the league that he never will be? Do you realize how few QBs in the history of the league would pass that test? No, because he hasn't shown that he has cured his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong colored spamshirts, and he can't stretch the defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 No, because he hasn't shown that he has cured his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong colored spamshirts, and he can't stretch the defense. In about seven starts? And his TD/INT ratio is about even? Again, about how many guys not worth a 1st round pick have fared much better than that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Love the use of the word "Tome". Going back to 2009 I was bullish on Kolb. He was progressing nicely. Last year was his shot. Often in the NFL your shot can be unfair and short. First rounders get a long leash, and everybody else, well not so much. During his shot he seemed rattled to me. I believe he hurt his value, fairly or unfairly. I wonder whether that perception, which may be shared, can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophesy. I wonder whether team mates will have confidence in him. I wonder whether they will go to the matresses for him. I would not be shocked to see Kolb have a season or three where in the right situation he puts up better than average to good numbers. On the other hand I would not be surprised to see him end up with a Lienert or Carr type of career. Always a backup with a few people saying he just needs one more chance. I had Kolb on a number of rosters. I sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 . I also think there will be one guy in this class who will break out and be a very solid QB, but can't figure out who it will be. **cough** **cough** PONDER **cough** **cough** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 **cough** **cough** DALTON **cough** **cough** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I would not be shocked to see Kolb have a season or three where in the right situation he puts up better than average to good numbers. On the other hand I would not be surprised to see him end up with a Lienert or Carr type of career. Always a backup with a few people saying he just needs one more chance. I agree 100%. He just doesn't have the physical tools, but he's a real smart guy, and it wouldn't shock me one bit for him to be very Jeff Garcia-like in terms of producing in the right environment, circa 2000-2002. Surrounded by a solid cast, with a good OL, he won't be the reason a team losses. And in many games, he will very well be the reason they win. With an marginal team and poor protection, he'll be average at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 **cough** **cough** PONDER **cough** **cough** I recognize that coughing, choking sound. That is the sound I make after sucking off Aaron Rodgers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearBroncos Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 **cough** **cough** PONDER **cough** **cough** You guys are nutz. It's the year of the Quinn. All hail the QUINN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 You guys are nutz. It's the year of the Quinn. All hail the QUINN! Are you predicting reruns of Dr Quinn, Medicine Woman during the NFL lockout? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearBroncos Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Are you predicting reruns of Dr Quinn, Medicine Woman during the NFL lockout? She was hot and Colorado Springs was it's setting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 (edited) Dave "Softy" Mahler of KJR 950 confirmed that the offer has been made by Seattle, and could possibly be finalized once the work stoppage ends. Whatever that means. Edited July 7, 2011 by Seahawks21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Dave "Softy" Mahler of KJR 950 confirmed that the offer has been made by Seattle, and could possibly be finalized once the work stoppage ends. Whatever that means. "Softy"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 "Softy"? He's a slighty portly fellow. Also goes by the nickname "squishy". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramhock Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Let us not forget, the Eagles line was in shambles, the start of 2010. Vick had the mobilty to be able to work under those conditions. I think Kolb still has an opportunity to succeed. He has gained experience with the pass happy Cougars & Eagles, although mainly in practice. IMO, jury is still out and I would not be surprised if becomes a decent QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron2112 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 But that's not what was said. What was said was, "if he's worth a 1st, then he's worth a 1st and a 3rd". As if the 3rd is a throw-in pick. And a 3rd most certainly is not. Sure, if you're absolutely sold on the guy, then he's worth a 1st and a 3rd. That means he's worth more than a 1st. In this case, if you can get him for "only" a first, then you'd consider that a bargain, because you were prepared to give up a 3rd as well. If, on the other hand, you see him as having a late first/early 2nd pedigree (which was both where he went and where he was expected to go), who's done little to move the needle either way in terms of proving he deserved to be ranked higher or lower, but has the advantage of being more ready to go than a guy who you'd be picking at that spot, that means you should be willing to spend a 1st rounder. And, considering where he was taken, basically any first round pick you give up for him is going to be a higher price than what Philly spent on him, because he went 36th overall. So, the point being, it is certainly an understandable stance to say he's worth exactly a #1 pick and no more. That wouldn't even be playing hardball because I'm sure there are those who think he's not even worth that. So, why should it be assumed that, if you think he's worth a 1, he must be worth more than that? I'm not really sure what you're arguing here... I was pretty clear with what my thoughts are on a player with a 1st round trade value. Of course it's on a case-by-case basis. For instance, if I valued a guy as a 2nd round/late 1st round talent I wouldn't be interested in throwing a 3rd in. But if I valued a guy as a mid-1st or higher talent(obviously a highly coveted player at that value) I'm not walking away over a 3rd round pick. Plus we're talking about a QB here, and I guess the QB position is by definition a "difference maker"... so in that case, if I believe in my evaluation process, I'm prepared to offer a bit more than the strict value I may have in mind. as was LO... come on det, you know that's not what's being said. No one is saying to go into negotiations and give whatever the other side wants. But according to the chart, a mid-first is worth about a 1000 "points". A mid third is worth about 100 points. If you really thought a QB was worth a 1000, then you must think he's capable of a being a franchise or near-franchise leader. So would you really walk away from giving 10% more? I'm not saying to voluntarily give it away, of course get the best deal that you can. But if you think he's that good, get him, yeah? I don't think a 3rd round pick is a "throw-in" really, but I don't think it's a primo pick either. It's not the kind of value I'd lose sleep over in the big picture.... that's MHO... but I also must say that if a team really believes this guy is a franchise quarterback it would be hard to believe they would hold the line and pass over a 3rd round type value if that's all it would take to get the deal done. I don't think your real estate comparison is valid. The housing market is so vast and common, there are so many comparables that the market is pretty accurately set on prices in any particular area... other than parties getting in a bidding war over a particular property. The value of NFL players is a much more nebulous/fluid prospect as the League is such a unique/specialized business. Every year we see players drafted much higher, or lower, than the consensus, and free agents given contracts that seem outrageous in comparison to conventional wisdom. BTW, I haven't said what IMO Kolb is worth in this thread. I was giving my opinion on trade/pick values in general when I agreed with LO. That said, I don't believe Kolb's trade value will have much to do with where he was drafted. Some will be based on the compensation other young QB's that have flashed talent netted, and some will be about what a team thinks he can do for them. Hard to say exactly what it will be 'cause It's difficult to nail down just what 32 different organizations are thinking... valuing the NFL 's brand of "talent" isn't quite as precise as slapping a value on a 4 bdrm, 3 bath split level on Broadway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I'm not really sure what you're arguing here... It's really quite simple. Either you think he's worth a first or you think he's worth a 1st and a 3rd, or you think he's worth something else. If you think he's absolutely worth a 1st and wouldn't blink to spend that, then sure, throw in a 3rd if that's what it takes. However, if you're prepared to spend a 1st but that's absolutely, positively it because, frankly, you think that's a bit more than he's worth but what the hell, then being asked to throw in more still is too much. That's really it. The argument was, "if he's worth a 1st, then he's worth a 1st and a 3rd". And that isn't automatically the case. It may be the case, if you'd spend a first without a second thought, but it's not the case if you think that's doable, but a stretch. Which you actually illustrated in your previous post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bier Meister Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 just looking at offensive players taken in the 3rd round: 2010: shipley colty mccoy moeaki 2009: shonn greene glen coffee brandon tate mike wallace 2008: kevin smith earl bennett jamaal charles early doucet steve slaton jermichael finley mario manningham andre caldwell 2007: jacoby jones laurent robinson james jones mike walker trent edwards garett wolfe johnnie lee higgins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron2112 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Looks like everyone understands all 1st round picks are not created equal. cheers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I don't think a 3rd round pick is a "throw-in" really, but I don't think it's a primo pick either. It's not the kind of value I'd lose sleep over in the big picture.... that's MHO... but I also must say that if a team really believes this guy is a franchise quarterback it would be hard to believe they would hold the line and pass over a 3rd round type value if that's all it would take to get the deal done. Funny that you mention this part. I'll guanatee you that no NFL GM sees a 3rd rounder as a throw-in. FFers always seem to equate thier knowledge and experience with people who work in the NFL for a living and can't see why they don't think similarly. If you're a NFL GM with a 3rd round pick, you know that you've got a shot at one of the top 4/5 guys in a lot of positions. GMs aren't filling QB/RB/WR/TE only - they're filling about 16 different positions (throw out Ks & Ps in the 3rd). There's still some very good talent left on the board in a NFL draft in the 3rd round. So there is a hugh difference in offering up a 1st rounder and a 1st & 3rd rounder in a trade - that's something some here really don't understand, and so they make what are really fairly silly arguments when they throw around this kind of stuff like it is triffling. It's not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 wait what? Oh for dog's sake. If a 1st rounder is already stretching the extent of your price point, then that's it. That, all things being equal, you think Kolb "should" be worth what the Eagles spent on him which is an early 2nd rounder. But, for some reason, you think he's a particularly good fit for your offense, so you're prepared to overspend just a bit and are, thus, willing to offer a 1st to get the deal done, then that's it. That's your drop dead price because you already went above what you think is the "fair" price to begin with. You're questioning my use of "what the hell?" by offering a slightly earlier pick than what his intrinsic value may be and yet you're the one who initially basically said, "what the hell" in terms of throwing in a pick that could be used on one of the 60-90 most coveted players coming out of college ball in a given season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 (edited) No he wasn't No? Going into the season Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid named Kevin Kolb the team's new starting QB after trading Donovan McNabb to the Washington Redskins on Sunday.Kolb, a three-year veteran, was drafted with the 36th overall pick in 2007, and there were immediate whispers then that the Eagles were ushering in the post-McNabb era. "Obviously we have a lot of confidence in Kevin Kolb to make this decision," Reid said of trading McNabb, a six-time Pro Bowler who had been the team's starter since 1999. He described Kolb as a "young up and coming player" who had "learned how to do it the right way" from McNabb. Kolb started two games in place of McNabb last season. He threw for 741 yards with four TD passes and three INTs. "We see leadership and athletic ability," Reid said. "He does a nice job reading defenses ... has a pretty good feel for the position." Then Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid abruptly changed his mind late yesterday. After consistently stating that Kevin Kolb is his No. 1 quarterback he abruptly changed his tune by handing Michael Vick the keys to the car by naming him the starter.Reid suggests the decision has nothing to do with Kolb’s health. It is simply a matter of how Vick is playing right now. After reviewing the film the coaching staff came to the conclusion Vick is playing to well to be second fiddle to Kolb. Reid stated. "When someone is playing at the level Michael Vick is playing, you have to give him an opportunity," He continued. "This isn't about Kevin Kolb's play. You're talking about Michael Vick as one the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now." More After watching the Michael Vick Experience 2.0 up close the last two weeks, Reid couldn’t bear to put his new toy back on the shelf. “Michael Vick is playing out of his mind right now, and that’s a beautiful thing,” Reid said Tuesday during his press conference to announce Vick would be the Eagles starting quarterback indefinitely. Reid stressed this wasn’t a decision about Kevin Kolb’s poor first half against the Packers in the season opener. (Reid also noted Kolb is fully recovered from his concussion now.) It was about Vick’s surprising progress the last two weeks, which had Reid drooling. Kolb played less than one full game before being injured. Vick finished that game and started the next one. That was all Reid needed to see to make the switch permanent. To me, if you've named a guy your new franchise QB (as he did with Kolb before the season) you give him a chance to get his job back after injury, dont you? I stand by my statement that Reid was awful quick to name Vick his start indefinitely. Edited July 11, 2011 by Delicious_bass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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