Smith to the Chiefs

[flemingd]

Because-?

 

Because he's a different QB the last 4 years. Since 2009 he's completed 62.1% of his passes, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, and has 62 TD's vs. 32 INT's. And that's with Vernon Davis as his "best" target. Crabtree started to come along this year, and Smith's passer rating reflected that - his QB rating this year was 104.1; only Rodgers and Manning posted higher on the season. The last 4 years, it's still a solid 88.2 (Flacco last year was 87.7).

 

Philly threw the ball 618 times last year. If you took Smith's 4 year averages over that:

 

618 attempts * 7.0 = 4326 yards

618 attempts * 4.5% TD rate = 28 TD's

618 attempts * 2.32% INT = 14 INT

 

As a comparison, Matt Ryan threw the ball 615 times for 4509 yards, 32 TD's, and 14 INT's. Smith would extrapolate out to within sniffing distance of Ryan without a receiving corp in the same zip code as Atlanta's.

 

I think the Chiefs will give him more tools than he had in SF. Bowe could be one huge answer, Moeaki had his moments after an ACL, and Baldwin has some freakish physical tools if he can get his head out of his ass. Charles could be a monster in Reid's scheme. If they go hard after a quality FA WR like Jennings or Wallace this would turn into a very interesting thing to watch.

Edited March 4, 2013 by flemingd

[keggerz]

Because he's a different QB the last 4 years. Since 2009 he's completed 62.1% of his passes, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, and has 62 TD's vs. 32 INT's. And that's with Vernon Davis as his "best" target. Crabtree started to come along this year, and Smith's passer rating reflected that - his QB rating this year was 104.1; only Rodgers and Manning posted higher on the season. The last 4 years, it's still a solid 88.2 (Flacco last year was 87.7).

 

Philly threw the ball 618 times last year. If you took Smith's 4 year averages over that:

 

618 attempts * 7.0 = 4326 yards

618 attempts * 4.5% TD rate = 28 TD's

618 attempts * 2.32% INT = 14 INT

 

As a comparison, Matt Ryan threw the ball 615 times for 4509 yards, 32 TD's, and 14 INT's. Smith would extrapolate out to within sniffing distance of Ryan (and better than Luck, with more attempts) without a receiving corp in the same zip code as Atlanta's.

 

 

I think the Chiefs will give him more tools than he had in SF. Bowe could be one huge answer, Moeaki had his moments after an ACL, and Baldwin has some freakish physical tools if he can get his head out of his ass. Charles could be a monster in Reid's scheme. If they go hard after a quality FA WR like Jennings or Wallace this would turn into a very interesting thing to watch.

 

The 618 is a real outlier for Philly...Reid's team only eclipsed 600 passes twice in 14 yrs...average for all 14 yrs is 556.

 

edit: and I love Moeaki this year...an added yr post injury and Reid has shown the TE position love in the past.

Edited March 4, 2013 by keggerz

[Whiskey Pimp]

Dwayne Bowe just punched a hole in the bathroom door.

 

 

He just signed a long term deal.

[flemingd]

The 618 is a real outlier for Philly...Reid's team only eclipsed 600 passes twice in 14 yrs...average for all 14 yrs is 556.

 

It's just a number for a comparison baseline. 556 works very well too:

 

556 * 7 = 3892 yards

566 * 4.5% = 25 TD's

556 * 2.32% = 13 TD's

 

Flacco = 531 attempts, 3817 yards, 22 TD's, 10 INT's.

[Zooty]

He just signed a long term deal.

 

 

must really hate his new QB

[Chief Dick]

Chiefs also franchised Albert, which makes the #1 pick even more interesting.

[Chief Dick]

must really hate his new QB

 

 

Twitter must not have posted this yet. Otherwise taz would be here posting the news and giving us his honest, fantasy spin to this signing.

[Zooty]

Twitter must not have posted this yet. Otherwise taz would be here posting the news and giving us his honest, fantasy spin to this signing.

 

 

any word if Alex Smith punched a wall?

[Tford]

I read somewhere that Alex Smith is 3-13 as a starter when he's had to throw 34 times or more in a game.

 

Reid's offenses have averaged 556 attempts per year or just under 35 attempts per game.

[tazinib1]

Twitter must not have posted this yet. Otherwise taz would be here posting the news and giving us his honest, fantasy spin to this signing.

 

 

[BeeR]

Since 2009 he's completed 62.1% of his passes, averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, and has 62 TD's vs. 32 INT's. And that's with Vernon Davis as his "best" target. Crabtree started to come along this year, and Smith's passer rating reflected that - his QB rating this year was 104.1; only Rodgers and Manning posted higher on the season.

Yeah sounds like Harbaugh really held him back

[flemingd]

Yeah sounds like Harbaugh really held him back

 

Exactly my point, thanks for agreeing with me. If Luck were putting up those kinds of numbers in just 25 attempts per game you'd be going ballistic about giving him more chances to air it out.

 

Kaepernick played in 7+ games this year and had 218 attemps, or ri ght around 29.1 attempts per game.

Smith played in 8+ games this year and had 218 attempts, or right around 25.7 attempts per game.

Smith attempted 445 passes last year in 16 games, 27.8 per game, 100 less than guys like Flacco and Roethlisberger, and 150-200 less that the highest passing teams.

 

You asked why I think he can be better than advertised and I answered it - because in limited opportunities, the body of work is strong. All that's missing is more volume.

[Bier Meister]

I read somewhere that Alex Smith is 3-13 as a starter when he's had to throw 34 times or more in a game.

 

Reid's offenses have averaged 556 attempts per year or just under 35 attempts per game.

 

 

over the past 2 seasons smith was 8-3 when attempting 30 or more passes. 1-0 in playoffs

[stevegrab]

over the past 2 seasons smith was 8-3 when attempting 30 or more passes. 1-0 in playoffs

 

 

That's a big difference from 3-13 so who's numbers are correct? Looks like you are, but I suppose tford could be as well if you raise that to 35 attempts and go over his whole career (he's 1-2 over the last 2 years when throwing 35 times or more).

 

games with 30 or more attempts (games with 35 or more in bold)

2012: WK2 - W, WK3-L, WK6-L,

2011: WK3-W, WK4-W, WK6-W, WK10-W, WK11-W, WK14-L, WK15-W, WK17-W

[Bier Meister]

while i didn't check everything over "34", i assume he is also correct, but i think we have to look beyond that stat. the 49ers got the #1 pick for a reason... they were a pretty bad team with a lot of holes (back then i was hoping they would trade the pick for more picks). sf's personnel and system really didn't dictate having a pass-happy offense. when they got him, they were going to lose a lot of games with or without him. on top of that... despite the respect i have for him, i still believe that smith is an average qb. he learned how to not turn the ball over, but he isn't really going to carry a team. with other parts around him he will be ok. we might actually see a bump in some of his stats as he hasn't had a wr like bowe before.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Bier Meister

[BeeR]

You asked why I think he can be better than advertised and I answered it - because in limited opportunities, the body of work is strong. All that's missing is more volume.

 

No, I asked why you think Harbaugh held him back and all you've done is spew a lot of stats which don't back it in the tiniest.

[keggerz]

No, I asked why you think Harbaugh held him back and all you've done is spew a lot of stats which don't back it in the tiniest.

 

Seems clear cut to me that his point is that Harbaugh held him back by limiting how much he threw the ball.

[Ice1]

I don't think the Chiefs overpaid at all. Smith is a solid, accurate, QB. His skill set is suited well for the offense Reid is going to run or should I say pass.

 

I think they still go OT if they do not trade the pick. Their line will be really good and Charles will not only excel in the short passing game, their running attack will help the passing game. Smith reads defenses very well and rarely makes mistakes.

 

This team will probably be the most improved team in the league this year. The real key will be Smith's ability to pick up the offense but that shouldn't be a problem as he has had much practice given how many systems he has played in.

 

I think they made a wise choice given the strength of this draft.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Ice1

[Ice1]

Seems clear cut to me that his point is that Harbaugh held him back by limiting how much he threw the ball.

 

 

System coach makes for a system QB. Held back is probably not the case. His offensive scheme did not make for great fantasy numbers but the QB played well.

 

Kaepernick is just a freak so when he was given the nod the offense changed to incorporate more running from the position.

 

Interesting note; both QB;s were top 3 in the league in Yards per attempt. Kaepernick was 1st at 8.3 and Smith was 3rd at 8.0. RGIII was second.

 

Smith is simply a better QB than most realize. Once one studies his body of work the talent does shine through. He wears the game manager label by the lay person fan often but all great QB's seem to be game managers within the system being run, at least that is what coaches hope for out of the position.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Ice1

[flemingd]

No, I asked why you think Harbaugh held him back and all you've done is spew a lot of stats which don't back it in the tiniest.

 

Actually you did both. I was responding to the "I think he's better than advertised" part of what you quoted me on - thus my reiteration of "You asked why I think he can be better than advertised". Sorry for not turning on my ESP and understanding your super clear "Because?" was only questioning that half of the quote.

[flemingd]

Because-?

 

Ok, now that I'm clear on what you're wondering, here we go:

 

I think Harbaugh held him back because Harbaugh played an overly conservative offensive scheme. In the games Smith started under Harbaugh, he averaged just 27.3 passes per game. They had a good defense and trusted that and their running game and never really gave Smith an opportunity to show if he was capable of any more. He didn't exactly open the floodgates for Kaepernick either - the team threw the ball only 436 times, with only Seattle (405) attempting fewer passes. It's the system he runs and how he chose to run the games. That's not a bad thing, to the contrary they had tremendous team success, but the fact is that he held the QB's back. It's tough to show you're better than advertised with that kind of workload.