Is Jason Witten a Fantasy Starter anymore?

[robert terni]

In ppr leagues he's only had 4 games where he scored more then 10 pts. Thats nuts...I'm considering benching him for boykin..anyone else in same situation?

Edited November 22, 2013 by robert terni

[dope man]

I have him in one of mine, usually try to avoid the cowboys, they always seem to tank in my lineup...so I take full responsibility as to why he sucks! My Bad!

[DMD]

Sure, he is a starter - he is the 7th highest scoring TE. He is just not a difference maker any more. To me he just looks slower this year, maybe his age finally kicked in.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

If you own him how many better option could you have most weeks ?

 

Try being in my spot deciding between Fleener & Clay each week

Edited November 22, 2013 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[delusions of grandeur]

Sure, he is a starter - he is the 7th highest scoring TE. He is just not a difference maker any more. To me he just looks slower this year, maybe his age finally kicked in.

 

 

True, but so much of that production has been in just 3 weeks. He's become that boom/bust player I hate to have at TE where there aren't as many options. You can't sit him unless you're stacked at TE because he'll go off when you do, but he's probably lost me several more games than he's helped win at this point.

[stevegrab]

At TE definitely. In the OPs case where its a flex spot possibly not depends on your other options

 

I actually had him as a keeper from last year, wasn't expecting numbers quite like last year and have been a little disappointed. But I'm not going to find a better option on waivers so he's my guy for now.

[stevegrab]

True, but so much of that production has been in just 3 weeks. He's become that boom/bust player I hate to have at TE where there aren't as many options. You can't sit him unless you're stacked at TE because he'll go off when you do, but he's probably lost me several more games than he's helped win at this point.

 

 

Good point but that may be true of other TE close to him in scoring as well. Looking at my league(non-PPR, otherwise std scoring), with the 3 TE on either side of Witten,

Gonzo 5th TE, 2 big weeks (26 & 14) 3 others close to double digits (9,9,8) the other 6 games 4 or less

Gates 6th, 1 big week (19) 3 other double digits (11 each) and 6 with 7 or less

Clay 7th, 2 big weeks (15, 16), 2 double digits (10,11) and 6 with 6 or less

Witten 8th, 3 big weeks (19,18,16) no others close to double digits, 7 with 6 or less

Olsen 9th, 3 double digits (14,12,11), the other 7 below that (1 each 7,8 others 5 or less)

Walker 10th, 3 double digits (11,12,15) the other 7 below that (couple of 7s, otherwise 4 or less)

Bennett 11th, 2 double digits (10,19 first 2 weeks) the other 8 below that (9 once, others 6 or less)

 

I guess where Witten differs from the 3 above him, is more boom and bust, less in the middle (those games at or close to double digits).

 

Bennett is a free agent, so are Cook, Chandler and Clark (ranked 15,16,18).

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

In ppr leagues he's only had 4 games where he scored more then 10 pts. Thats nuts...I'm considering benching him for boykin..anyone else in same situation?

 

 

You did not just like your own post

[brg88tx]

romo's afraid of dez's temper tantrums if he doesn't throw to him, so whitten's numbers suffer.

[delusions of grandeur]

 

 

Good point but that may be true of other TE close to him in scoring as well. Looking at my league(non-PPR, otherwise std scoring), with the 3 TE on either side of Witten,

Gonzo 5th TE, 2 big weeks (26 & 14) 3 others close to double digits (9,9,8) the other 6 games 4 or less

Gates 6th, 1 big week (19) 3 other double digits (11 each) and 6 with 7 or less

Clay 7th, 2 big weeks (15, 16), 2 double digits (10,11) and 6 with 6 or less

Witten 8th, 3 big weeks (19,18,16) no others close to double digits, 7 with 6 or less

Olsen 9th, 3 double digits (14,12,11), the other 7 below that (1 each 7,8 others 5 or less)

Walker 10th, 3 double digits (11,12,15) the other 7 below that (couple of 7s, otherwise 4 or less)

Bennett 11th, 2 double digits (10,19 first 2 weeks) the other 8 below that (9 once, others 6 or less)

 

I guess where Witten differs from the 3 above him, is more boom and bust, less in the middle (those games at or close to double digits).

 

Bennett is a free agent, so are Cook, Chandler and Clark (ranked 15,16,18).

 

 

Very true, even rougher year for TEs than usual, when the position seemed deep as ever at draft time.

 

Is why I wish I'd reached even more to grab graham in as many TE required leagues as possible. Even with a couple rough weeks mixed in, he's become a huge advantage.

[darin3]

I pretty much gotta start the guy every week in the league I own him. Fortunately, the rest of my squad is pretty solid so I can take the hit if/when he has a stinker.

 

I own Jeff Cumberland in this league and have been tempted to play him a couple times, but need to remind myself of who's simply the better player... and Witten, FWIW, has twice as many points as Cumberland this season.

 

The week ya sit him will be the one he catches 7 balls for 90 yards and a TD.

[Gopher]

He's #7 in PPR scoring, and 6th in targets, for all TE's. Vernon Davis has 10 more points than Witten (including twice as many TD's), but 18 less targets (72-54). The bottom line is that most TE's, outside of the top 5-6, are boom/bust to a certain extent. Even Davis (who has been largely consistent/productive) has two games of 5 or less points (PPR), including 1 point in Week 10.

 

What has made Witten frustrating, in terms of a fantasy TE, is that he not only has fallen out of the elite tier (or two, if you consider Graham in a tier all by himself), he's become even more boom/bust than the others in his tier (Clay, Reed, Olsen, Bennet, etc.). In other words, they all have more double-digit weeks than he does, yet he has outscored them all overall... Mainly because three of his four double-digit weeks have been roughly 25 points.

 

So, I guess it becomes a question of which you would rather have... A guy with a higher floor, or a guy with a higher ceiling, but lower floor (who has outscored the guys with the higher floor, overall). As I mentioned, Witten has three games where he scored a combined 76 points... games of 27, 25, and 24 points. The next six guys in TE PPR scoring (Clay, Reed, Olsen, Bennett, Walker, Fleener) have six games of 20+ points total... between all six of them. And, again, Witten has outscored all six of them, overall, this season.

 

So, there might be the occasional week/matchup where I'd pick somebody like Reed over Witten, but for the most part, I'm still starting Witten as my TE on a weekly basis, unless I've got another top 5-6 TE in front of him.

[darin3]

He's #7 in PPR scoring, and 6th in targets, for all TE's. Vernon Davis has 10 more points than Witten (including twice as many TD's), but 18 less targets (72-54). The bottom line is that most TE's, outside of the top 5-6, are boom/bust to a certain extent. Even Davis (who has been largely consistent/productive) has two games of 5 or less points (PPR), including 1 point in Week 10.

 

What has made Witten frustrating, in terms of a fantasy TE, is that he not only has fallen out of the elite tier (or two, if you consider Graham in a tier all by himself), he's become even more boom/bust than the others in his tier (Clay, Reed, Olsen, Bennet, etc.). In other words, they all have more double-digit weeks than he does, yet he has outscored them all overall... Mainly because three of his four double-digit weeks have been roughly 25 points.

 

So, I guess it becomes a question of which you would rather have... A guy with a higher floor, or a guy with a higher ceiling, but lower floor (who has outscored the guys with the higher floor, overall). As I mentioned, Witten has three games where he scored a combined 76 points... games of 27, 25, and 24 points. The next six guys in TE PPR scoring (Clay, Reed, Olsen, Bennett, Walker, Fleener) have six games of 20+ points total... between all six of them. And, again, Witten has outscored all six of them, overall, this season.

 

So, there might be the occasional week/matchup where I'd pick somebody like Reed over Witten, but for the most part, I'm still starting Witten as my TE on a weekly basis, unless I've got another top 5-6 TE in front of him.

 

 

Good post and I was actually thinking about the TE position for Week 12 quite a bit yesterday.

 

The way I saw it (prior to Graham's big game) was heck, you either own Gronk or you're borne with some risk at the position this week. Even the good once (ie, Graham) were facing some kind of adversity.

 

Graham has not looked 100%, Davis is solid but how much will SFO need to throw? Fleener has looked better and has a nice matchup, but he could swing back the other way quite easily. You really want to rely on Garrett Graham or John Carlson? Even the "solid" guys like Olsen, Gates and Gonzo all had question marks.

 

TE has deepened a little this year with the breaking out of guys like Wright, Walker and Thomas.... but maybe it's just this week with how the matchups are playing out that it's a real crapshoot for TEs.

 

That said, might as well go with a guy who's proven like Witten, who has a pretty nifty matchup.

[Gopher]

TE tiers (in my opinion)....

 

Graham

 

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Gonzo

Gates

Davis

 

Witten

Reed

Clay

Olsen

Bennett

 

If you don't own one of those, you're likely playing TE by platoon (matchups), with the likes of Fleener, Walker, Graham, Cook, Rudolph/Carlson, etc.

 

Now, obviously, as others have mentioned, if this is a non-TE-mandatory league (and we're talking starting Witten as a flex or WR/TE3), then I would say no... Witten is no longer a must-start. He's rosterable in that format, but he's now probably more of a WR4/5. In past years, he was one of the 2-3 TE's that were must-starts in even that format. This year, he's not (but I think everybody above him probably is).

 

Edit: Forgot to include Gronk. He's arguably elite (like Graham), but until I see a couple of more weeks, I'd conservatively leave him at the top of the 2nd tier.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Gopher

[ReturnToSender]

Thinking about Rolling the Delanie Walker dice again this week over Whitten, anyone else liking this? Walker is going against Oakland.

[alexgaddis]

This is the FIRST week this year I am considering Fleener over Witten...dynasty league and the only week I started Fleener was Witten's bye week...

 

on the fence but really don't want to sit Witten and then watch him go for 25 points...

[irish]

TE tiers (in my opinion)....

 

Graham

 

Gronk

Thomas

Cameron

Gonzo

Gates

Davis

 

Witten

Reed

Clay

Olsen

Bennett

 

If you don't own one of those, you're likely playing TE by platoon (matchups), with the likes of Fleener, Walker, Graham, Cook, Rudolph/Carlson, etc.

 

Now, obviously, as others have mentioned, if this is a non-TE-mandatory league (and we're talking starting Witten as a flex or WR/TE3), then I would say no... Witten is no longer a must-start. He's rosterable in that format, but he's now probably more of a WR4/5. In past years, he was one of the 2-3 TE's that were must-starts in even that format. This year, he's not (but I think everybody above him probably is).

 

Edit: Forgot to include Gronk. He's arguably elite (like Graham), but until I see a couple of more weeks, I'd conservatively leave him at the top of the 2nd tier.

 

 

fleener has to be on this list. oh and i'm debating on starting garret graham over witten this week.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

 

 

fleener has to be on this list. oh and i'm debating on starting garret graham over witten this week.

 

 

Yes easily replace Clay with Fleener

[alexgaddis]

Glad I sat Fleener for Witten today...

 

2 TD's!

[darin3]

He apparently enjoys playing the G-men. I'll take it. Almost 20 points in ppr formats.

 

I'm hoping he forges forward from here with a pretty solid schedule for TEs for the rest of the season.

[Cowboyz1]

Well i sure hope you started him. I think he answered your question loud and clear.

[robert terni]

Ya I did start him

[robert terni]

Only a 4 pt gap between shorts and witten but hey..I'll take the extra pts

[stevegrab]

Only a 4 pt gap between shorts and witten but hey..I'll take the extra pts

 

What does Shorts have to do with it? Your OP said you were considering Boykin.

 

Besides, not everybody has the choice between a TE and a WR. As a TE Witten is still a starter, in a flex, well it depends on many things like your scoring, what other positions in the flex and your line-up.

 

Yes Witten helped me clinch my yesterday, that and the late TD by Thomas and the Pats preventing the Broncos from kicking a FG in OT.

[delusions of grandeur]

Well i sure hope you started him. I think he answered your question loud and clear.

 

 

That he can be a solid start 33% of the time instead of just 27% of the time?

 

Glad to confirm that his production is just more boom or bust and he's not steadily declining, but that's really the only question he answered for me. I will still be damn nervous rolling him out for (hopefully) 3 playoff games, but as mentioned above, there really aren't many better options this year.