Talk me out of taking Manning #1

[frenzal rhomb]

I have always been a RB, RB, WR guy but this draft I have the 1 pick, then 19 then 21. It's a 10 team redraft where all TD's are weighted equally. Based on the CBS "expert" draft linked in the other forum. I would potentially end up with

Manning, Rudi Johnson and either Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook or Chris Brown.

 

If I take Tomlinson, I end up with Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson and possibly Harrison (sticking with the original draft stradegy. I think the first option looks better.

[Perchoutofwater]

In a 10 team league, where all TDs are weighted equally, I wouldn't blame you for taking him with the first pick. I think I've done three drafts, and two mocks, and the farthest he has fallen is 1.5, and has probably averaged 1.3, but these are leagues that do not weight TD's equally.

[Rovers]

Here is something I posted in another thread:

 

 

This was bounced around some in another thread. If you want to look at point differentials, I don't think you can compare Manning to another RB. For instance, in the IDP mock, I took Manning at 1.3. Naturally, at 2.10 and 3.3 I took RB's. If that were not an IDP league, I would have taken a WR at 4.10, and most likely again at 5.3.

 

Now, if I had passed on Manning, that 5.3 pick may well have been my QB pick. Let's say I took Edge at 1.3 instead of Manning. At 2.10, I would have taken Martin, so that pick remains the same. At 3.3, I took Jordan. So far, I have to figure (project) the points differential between Edge and Jordan. Then, I also have to figure the difference between Manning and the QB I would have selected at 5.3, let's say it's T Green.

 

For arguements sake, let's say Jordan has a pretty good year, not Edge numbers, but not bad. The differential between Manning and Green should exceed that of Edge over Jordan. But, we're not done yet. By taking Manning I had to take my first WR in round 4, instead of round 3, and my second WR in round 5 instead of round 4. The round 4 WR pick would be the same player, but I would have to include my projected points differential between the WR I could have gotten in the 3rd round (with the T Green pick) vs. the WR I got in the fifth round (with the Manning pick).

 

So, the Manning vs. Green point difference would have to be greater than:

 

RB at 1.3 and WR at 3.3 vs. RB at 3.3 and WR at 5.3.

 

This makes taking Manning look less attractive. It really boils down to what your projections are for individual players. In my case, I think I got lucky to get Jordan in the third round. The difference between getting a WR in the 3rd round vs. the 5th might be hurt more than the RB comparison did. I would not want to do this in all of my leagues, since so much rides on Manning. But, he's durable and I don't see any reason he can't come close to last year's numbers. If he doesn't, I'm sunk. But, a straight differential between Manning and an RB in the first only tells a part of the story, in terms of point differentials.

 

By taking a QB in the first, I weaken myself at my #1 RB and #1WR positions. Those two differentials must also be considered against the Manning vs. Green diferential.

 

i'm not rrying to talk you out of it, but hopefully have highlighted some points which might make the decision more clear cut.

[broncosn05]

Because there are so many other QBs that put up big numbers thzat go in the 5th like Trent Green then HBs from LT to Michael Bennet.

[MrGameTime]

I have always been a RB, RB, WR guy but this draft I have the 1 pick, then 19 then 21.  It's a 10 team redraft where all TD's are weighted equally.  Based on the CBS "expert" draft linked in the other forum.  I would potentially end up with

Manning, Rudi Johnson and either Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook or Chris Brown. 

 

If I take Tomlinson, I end up with Tomlinson, Rudi Johnson and possibly Harrison (sticking with the original draft stradegy.  I think the first option looks better.

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I just don't think taking a QB in the first round is the right move!! I say this for a few reasons, one beening I agree that you will hurt your overall value in the next few rounds (#1RB & #1WR)

 

Next I don't think I know of anyone who has picked a QB in round one and went on to win a league! In fact last year in my league Manning was selected #1 YES #1 and the guy was out in the first round in the playoffs!

 

I think he is the best QB by far but I would take him #1 check your scoring systm well and if it makes you feel good picking him do it! just don't let your gut feeling about things mess you up!

[BS Miscreant]

The only way I would take any QB in the first is because I expect hugh numbers out of him because QBs with good seasons can be had in the 5th and later. I draft my first rounder based on track record because I don't like to play the what if game with my #1 pick. I'm not comfortable taking Manning in the first because he had 1 tremendous year. His track record suggests that he should be the first QB off the board but first round, particularly #1 overall, is way too early for my liking.

[Men In Tights]

Next I don't think I know of anyone who has picked a QB in round one and went on to win a league! In fact last year in my league Manning was selected #1 YES #1 and the guy was out in the first round in the playoffs!

 

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The above is stupid because the guy made the playoffs and lost because Manning had a bad matchup and a bad game against a very good defense in the Ravens. If Manning doesn't have that bad game and plays a different team I will assume this person wins that game and moves to the next round/championship.

[Men In Tights]

Here is something I posted in another thread:

This was bounced around some in another thread. If you want to look at point differentials, I don't think you can compare Manning to another RB. For instance, in the IDP mock, I took Manning at 1.3. Naturally, at 2.10 and 3.3 I took RB's. If that were not an IDP league, I would have taken a WR at 4.10, and most likely again at 5.3.

 

Now, if I had passed on Manning, that 5.3 pick may well have been my QB pick. Let's say I took Edge at 1.3 instead of Manning. At 2.10, I would have taken Martin, so that pick remains the same. At 3.3, I took Jordan. So far, I have to figure (project) the points differential between Edge and Jordan. Then, I also have to figure the difference between Manning and the QB I would have selected at 5.3, let's say it's T Green.

 

For arguements sake, let's say Jordan has a pretty good year, not Edge numbers, but not bad. The differential between Manning and Green should exceed that of Edge over Jordan. But, we're not done yet. By taking Manning I had to take my first WR in round 4, instead of round 3, and my second WR in round 5 instead of round 4. The round 4 WR pick would be the same player, but I would have to include my projected points differential between the WR I could have gotten in the 3rd round (with the T Green pick) vs. the WR I got in the fifth round (with the Manning pick).

 

So, the Manning vs. Green point difference would have to be greater than:

 

RB at 1.3 and WR at 3.3 vs. RB at 3.3 and WR at 5.3.

 

This makes taking Manning look less attractive. It really boils down to what your projections are for individual players. In my case, I think I got lucky to get Jordan in the third round. The difference between getting a WR in the 3rd round vs. the 5th might be hurt more than the RB comparison did. I would not want to do this in all of my leagues, since so much rides on Manning. But, he's durable and I don't see any reason he can't come close to last year's numbers. If he doesn't, I'm sunk. But, a straight differential between Manning and an RB in the first only tells a part of the story, in terms of point differentials.

 

By taking a QB in the first, I weaken myself at my #1 RB and #1WR positions. Those two differentials must also be considered against the Manning vs. Green diferential.

 

  i'm not rrying to talk you out of it, but hopefully have highlighted some points which might make the decision more clear cut.

 

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This is well thought and makes perfect sense. BUt no matter what you draft in the 1st round you will weaken another position. If everyone in your league always drafts 2-RB's in the first 2-rounds then there will always be ample QB's and WR's in the 3rd on. But if your league-mates draft various positions you will weaken your WR's immensly by drafting the 2-RB's then WR plan which will never allow you to have a Owens, Moss, Harrison type WR.

[Men In Tights]

Because there are so many other QBs that put up big numbers thzat go in the 5th like Trent Green then HBs from LT to Michael Bennet.

 

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I completely disagree there are many other QB's that put up big numbers. CPep and Manning were the only QB's to throw more than 31 td's last year (with only 2-QB's throwing for 30+). Just doing very little math shows (6-pts for td's):

Player - td - total pts.

Manning - 49 - 294

CPep - 41 - 246

McNabb - 34 - 204

The above shows Manning will score 100+ points over the course of a year more than any other QB, how can you logically explain this isn't a huge advantage. IMHO CPep #'s will go down without Moss around leaving Manning in a tier by himself. Of course the above doesn't include the difference in passing yards.

[Men In Tights]

For my last reply. I would not hesitate to take Manning with the #1 overall pick in a 6-pt for all TD's league. I understand you win with RB's, but you can't win a fantasy league with Trent Dilfer at QB (this is obvious overstatement).

 

My point is your fantasy team isn't made in the 1st round. It isn't made in the 2nd round. It isn't made in the 3rd round. IMHO basically everyone's picks in these rounds will offset each other, unless there are injuries. Your fantasy team is made in the 4th through 8th rounds when you are completing your roster. Regardless of whether you pick LT or Manning #1 overall if you pick like crap in those rounds you are screwed.

 

The above also doesn't include being savvy on the waiver wire and trading. How many times do you read in the fantasy advice on this board guys trying to trade their RB depth for a solid WR because they were so worried about getting those 2-RB's right away.

 

I am rambling now and could go on and on, but I like the Manning #1 overall pick where td's are equal.

[pedroz13]

I have always been the guy who waited to draft a QB in the later rounds, but after seeing what Peyton , Daunte and McNabb did last year, I won't try to talk someone out of Peyton Manning #1 overall. All of the leagues I was in last year (3), Peyton Manning owners either won the SB or were at least in the playoffs. I can't say the same for the LT and Priest Holmes owners.

[redcoltfan]

Talk you out of it?!? No way. He is the BEST QB in the NFL.

 

Brady might have more rings but WE ARE TALKING FANTASY FOOTBALL...right?!?

 

#18 is the best!

[broncosn05]

I completely disagree there are many other QB's that put up big numbers. CPep and Manning were the only QB's to throw more than 31 td's last year (with only 2-QB's throwing for 30+).  Just doing very little math shows (6-pts for td's):

Player - td - total pts.

Manning - 49 - 294

CPep  - 41  -  246

McNabb - 34 - 204

The above shows Manning will score 100+ points over the course of a year more than any other QB, how can you logically explain this isn't a huge advantage. IMHO CPep #'s will go down without Moss around leaving Manning in a tier by himself. Of course the above doesn't include the difference in passing yards.

 

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Yeah and you can't get McNabb in the 3rd/4th or Cpep in the 2nd??

[Rovers]

The bottom line for me was, regardless of the scoring (4 or 6 pts per pass TD) it still boils down to how many MORE points one player will have over the next best, in that position. I expect that Minny will be a more balnced offense this year, and with an improved defense, and without Moss, CPep doesn't come close to Manning this year. I think Manning could outpoint the next best QB by over 100 this year. That is easilly the largest point differential any player could possibly offer.

 

In a league where passing TD's are worth 6 points, it becomes even greater, as that sort of scoring system does put a lot more overall value on the QB position. Manning in the first is a no brainer in such a league this year, IMHO. The smaller the league, the better to take Manning as well, as there will be less of a drop off at the other positions when making later round picks.

[broncosn05]

The bottom line for me was, regardless of the scoring (4 or 6 pts per pass TD) it still boils down to how many MORE points one player will have over the next best, in that position.  I expect that Minny will be a more balnced offense this year, and with an improved defense, and without Moss, CPep doesn't come close to Manning this year. I think Manning could outpoint the next best QB by over 100 this year. That is easilly the largest point differential any player could possibly offer.

 

In a league where passing TD's are worth 6 points, it  becomes even greater, as that sort of scoring system does put a lot more overall value on the QB position. Manning in the first is a no brainer in such a league this year, IMHO. The smaller the league, the better to take Manning as well, as there will be less of a drop off at the other positions when making later round picks.

 

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Nevermind to what I said

[Men In Tights]

Yeah and you can't get McNabb in the 3rd/4th or Cpep in the 2nd??

 

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In a league that scores 6-pts for all td's you will have to get Cpep early in the 2nd, if you are lucky, and then McNabb in the early third, once again if you are lucky. I play in a league like this and see these guys go early.

 

I have spent too many years with a$$ clowns like Aaron Brooks because I thought I could wait on a QB and watch the Manning owner get a consistent 30+ points (typically) while I sit with the guy that might throw for 2-td's and might throw for 0-td's.

 

Opinions on this vary and everyone here loves their RB's but I think you have to look at the hugh advantage you can have at other positions if you have the balls to draft outside of the "rb theory".

 

There are always find great RB's on the waiver wire during the season, DD 2-years ago, Larry Johnson last year (the guy who won our league picked up Johnson and rode him to the title).

 

Finding great waiver QB's and WR's are few and far between, last I remember is Anquan Boldin.

[BS Miscreant]

I think Manning could outpoint the next best QB by over 100 this year. That is easilly the largest point differential any player could possibly offer.

 

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"Could", of course, being the operative word here. I don't buy it.

Is Manning the best QB in FF? Probably, although he wasn't in '02 or '03. Like I said in my earlier post, show me a track record. His track record indicates an outstanding QB but last year was quite possibly...quite likely, an anomaly. As of right now, it is in fact an anomaly. His career numbers show season averages of 28TDs and QB rating of around 92. Last year, he bettered his career averages by an astounding 21TDs and a 29pts. He almost doubled his TD pass average. Why on earth would anyone believe he will do it again? Because he was quoted in an article saying that he missed some last year and he could've thrown 60? Come on!

I say he comes back down to earth this year and there will be several other QBs that will give you within 3-4 points a game of his per game avg. He'll still be one of if not the top QB but I'm not buying the hype.

[1stimer]

Here is something I posted in another thread:

This was bounced around some in another thread. If you want to look at point differentials, I don't think you can compare Manning to another RB. For instance, in the IDP mock, I took Manning at 1.3. Naturally, at 2.10 and 3.3 I took RB's. If that were not an IDP league, I would have taken a WR at 4.10, and most likely again at 5.3.

 

Now, if I had passed on Manning, that 5.3 pick may well have been my QB pick. Let's say I took Edge at 1.3 instead of Manning. At 2.10, I would have taken Martin, so that pick remains the same. At 3.3, I took Jordan. So far, I have to figure (project) the points differential between Edge and Jordan. Then, I also have to figure the difference between Manning and the QB I would have selected at 5.3, let's say it's T Green.

 

For arguements sake, let's say Jordan has a pretty good year, not Edge numbers, but not bad. The differential between Manning and Green should exceed that of Edge over Jordan. But, we're not done yet. By taking Manning I had to take my first WR in round 4, instead of round 3, and my second WR in round 5 instead of round 4. The round 4 WR pick would be the same player, but I would have to include my projected points differential between the WR I could have gotten in the 3rd round (with the T Green pick) vs. the WR I got in the fifth round (with the Manning pick).

 

So, the Manning vs. Green point difference would have to be greater than:

 

RB at 1.3 and WR at 3.3 vs. RB at 3.3 and WR at 5.3.

 

This makes taking Manning look less attractive. It really boils down to what your projections are for individual players. In my case, I think I got lucky to get Jordan in the third round. The difference between getting a WR in the 3rd round vs. the 5th might be hurt more than the RB comparison did. I would not want to do this in all of my leagues, since so much rides on Manning. But, he's durable and I don't see any reason he can't come close to last year's numbers. If he doesn't, I'm sunk. But, a straight differential between Manning and an RB in the first only tells a part of the story, in terms of point differentials.

 

By taking a QB in the first, I weaken myself at my #1 RB and #1WR positions. Those two differentials must also be considered against the Manning vs. Green diferential.

 

  i'm not rrying to talk you out of it, but hopefully have highlighted some points which might make the decision more clear cut.

 

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What he said

[Seahawks21]

The single most important reason you like taking Peyton #1...the guy never gets touched let alone hurt, hardly ever. No other player you could consider taking this high comes with that kind of guarantee.

[DeezNuts]

LT2 - - - - - - - - - he is head and shoulders above every runningback this year. Peyton had some great numbers last year but what goes up must come down, at least a bit.

[Rovers]

"Could", of course, being the operative word here.  I don't buy it. 

Is Manning the best QB in FF?  Probably, although he wasn't in '02 or '03.  Like I said in my earlier post, show me a track record.  His track record indicates an outstanding QB but last year was quite possibly...quite likely, an anomaly.  As of right now, it is in fact an anomaly.  His career numbers show season averages of 28TDs and QB rating of around 92.  Last year, he bettered his career averages by an astounding 21TDs and a 29pts.  He almost doubled his TD pass average.  Why on earth would anyone believe he will do it again?  Because he was quoted in an article saying that he missed some last year and he could've thrown 60?  Come on! 

I say he comes back down to earth this year and there will be several other QBs that will give you within 3-4 points a game of his per game avg.  He'll still be one of if not the top QB but I'm not buying the hype.

 

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I have Manning down for about 42 TD passes. Why? He has an offense that returns intact. And a defense that should be just as bad as last year's was. CPep lost Moss, and now plays on a team that has a defense, unlike last year. McNabb is very up and down, year to year, and the questions surrounding Owens are a red flag. Going by career averages is pretty faulted, IMHO. The NFL changes alot, but Manning's offense didnt. Looking back, there were years that Harrison was his only good WR. He got double teamed. He now has 3 viable deep threats, still has Edge, and Clark.

 

BSM, do you really think a 30% reduction of his numbers will happen this year? Why? Let's not forget he didnt even play in week 17. My projection, in a 6 pt/TD format is that Manning will outpoint the next QB by 150. You think it's more like 60? Just don't see it.

[Caveman_Nick]

Rovers, you know how I feel about this, but just or the sake of discussion...

 

If you take Manning at # 1 in a 12 team league, you practically sentence yourself to taking RBs in rounds 2,3,and 4.

 

 

Who do you get with the 24th, 25th, and 48th pick to ensure any kind of stability in your FF backfield?

 

I hate picking #1 overall anyways, but picking a QB there is more than just about how many points they will score more than the next guy.

 

IMHO, in order to win in FF, you need to draft a good mix of dependable players. You need bye week fillers, credible 2nd string players, and some well researched sleepers.

 

Taking Manning #1 will sentence you to a backfield the likes of Tatum Bell* and Chris Brown*, with the absolute need for an insurance back in the next round.

 

I just don't see it working.

 

* backs available in the CBS Sportsline experts draft. Feel free to pick any 2 chose later...

[The Outfit]

Take Manning, he will get 40+ td's once again. Take a quick glance at his schedule. But one very important stat is, he NEVER gets hurt. Not only will you have the number one FF player again, but he will also set another record..........40+ td's in concecutive years..

[Rovers]

Rovers, you know how I feel about this, but just or the sake of discussion...

 

If you take Manning at # 1 in a 12 team league, you practically sentence yourself to taking RBs in rounds 2,3,and 4.

Who do you get with the 24th, 25th, and 48th pick to ensure any kind of stability in your FF backfield?

 

I hate picking #1 overall anyways, but picking a QB there is more than just about how many points they will score more than the next guy.

 

IMHO, in order to win in FF, you need to draft a good mix of dependable players.  You need bye week fillers, credible 2nd string players, and some well researched sleepers.

 

Taking Manning #1 will sentence you to a backfield the likes of Tatum Bell* and Chris Brown*, with the absolute need for an insurance back in the next round.

 

I just don't see it working.

 

* backs available in the CBS Sportsline experts draft.  Feel free to pick any 2 chose later...

 

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There is no doubt that taking Manning will hurt you RB's, none at all. In the 12 team draft where I took Manning at 1.3 I got CuMar and Jordan. In the fifth, I could have gotten Staley, but went WR, which was a mistake, since I eneded up with Faulk as my 3rd RB. I usually figure my third RB to start at least 5 times during the year. I have to hope Martin and Jordan stay healthy, but I did pick up some solid sleepers along the way as well.

 

Having said that, what about people who take guys like Moss and Owens late in the first round? Sometimes these alternative srategies work out very well. I wonder how many owners that did take Manning didn't make the playoffs last year? I would think very few. As I've said before, I didn't mind taking Manning in one league, but I would not want to do this in all of my leagues.

[Seahawks21]

Guys to be brutally honest with you---Manning, Bell and Brown sounds quite a bit better than say Alexander, JJones, Hasselbeck. I guess the point is that if you get Peyton Manning, you can pen him in for 250 & 2 every week, which is actually conservative. All you need is one or two little things to go right and you've got an unbeatable fantasy team.