Pennington

[kpholmes]

How does everyone feel about Pennington this year? Comming away from his injury and having Coles back as his main target, I'm thinking he could be quite a steal in the later rounds.

 

How will he manage this year? What kind of fantasy numbers will he put up, and how will he compare to other QBS?

 

 

kyle.

[Brentastic]

He could. I'm just really surprised we're not hearing more about his shoulder from a fantasy perspective. Everything I've read or seen about rotator cuff surgery is not good. My personal feeling is he could be done. It might be a bold statement, but I cannot recall one positive about that surgery and it's not like Pennington was known for his arm strength before the surgery. I wonder how effective he will be throwing the out? BTW, is Q. Carter still the back up? I'm not sure, but he could be huge this year, especially if their new OC really does open things up and of course Pennington struggles.

[Perchoutofwater]

BTW, is Q. Carter still the back up?  I'm not sure, but he could be huge this year, especially if their new OC really does open things up and of course Pennington struggles.

 

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Brent, either go back to the bar or go to bed before you hurt yourself.

[DonVito]

he’s a risk, even in the middle rounds

[Brentastic]

  Brent, either go back to the bar or go to bed before you hurt yourself.

 

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OK Perch, replace the word huge with surprising. I should have never used huge year and Carter in the same sentence. But what I'm saying is that he's got an arm and the new OC is supposed to air it out a bit more. Could be a sleeper pick.

[Rovers]

From the AP wire:

 

AP reports questions about New York Jets QB Chad Pennington's surgically repaired shoulder are starting to disappear, right along with whatever days off players have before training camp begins. Over the past couple of weeks, Pennington has been consistently throwing the football 30 yards without any problems. Those who have seen him say that Pennington looks sharp, and though his workload likely will be scaled back during training camp, he will be ready when his teammates report on July 29. At this point, there is no doubt that Pennington will be ready for the Chiefs in Kansas City for the season opener on Sept. 11. Further proving Pennington's readiness and anxiousness for the start of camp are the actions he has taken. This month, Pennington arranged for each of his top four wide receivers -- WR Laveranues Coles, WR Justin McCareins, WR Jerricho Cotchery and WR Wayne Chrebet -- to travel to Sarasota, Fla., for extended workouts together. The quarterback and receivers have been spending time getting their timing down, learning the Jets' new offense, and trying to get as far ahead as they can with training camp just over two weeks away. If Pennington wasn't healthy enough, he never would have booked the trip. But Pennington has turned up the heat on himself in preparation for what awaits him this summer on Long Island.

 

 

 

I've read several short interviews in which Pennington has talked about his shoulder. He talked about how the first two months post op he couldn't even brush his teeth with that arm. (Having had this surgery myself, I know what he's talking about.) He has since said that this was the best his arm has felt in years, which leads me to think there had been some damage in the shoulder for quite awhile.

 

For the life of me, I can't understand how he finished the season last year. He has also been quoted as saying if the Jets went to the ACF title game last year, he probably could not have played. If he is throwing the ball 30 yards now without discomfort, there is a chance his arm may be stronger this year than it was since 2002. He wants to be ready to go at the start of camp learning this new offense. The fact that he flew his WR's to FL and rolled out the red carpet for them just to work on timing patterns means he has some velocity on his short and mid-range throws already.

 

Of all the QB's in the NFL, he has as good a chance as any to surprise this year. He also knows he has an aging RB and an aging O line. He also knows he hasn't liven up to the hype of his 2002 season. I think he also knows it's time to put up or shut up. He should be a very good #2 QB this year.

 

PS: Quincy is gone. Pennington's backup is Fiedler.

Edited July 12, 2005 by Rovers

[MikesVikes]

I've just read for the gazillionth time that Pennington doesn't have any arm strength. How many tds did he throw to Randy at Marshall? 50 a year?

[godtomsatan]

I'm a big fan of letting someone else take on the players that have demonstrated a difficult time staying healthy. Until he can play a full year, he's a risky pick.

[Rovers]

I'm a big fan of letting someone else take on the players that have demonstrated a difficult time staying healthy. Until he can play a full year, he's a risky pick.

 

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Agreed, but we, or I, arent talking about him as a #1 pick, either. The risk on a #2 QB makes Pennington a worthwhile risk, even given his injury history (which is one year healthy, followed by two years of unrelated significant injuries). #2 QB's with upside, and some risk really isn't sticking yer neck out very far. That is like saying a 4th WR who has upside with an injury history is a bad pick.... like a certain Detroit WR this year. Sure, taking Taylor as a #2 RB would be silly, but this is not that. We are talking about a back up with up side.

[Jackass]

I've just read for the gazillionth time that Pennington doesn't have any arm strength.  How many tds did he throw to Randy at Marshall?  50 a year?

 

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I'm guessing the db's in Marshall's conference didn't put up much of a fight

[spain]

I've just read for the gazillionth time that Pennington doesn't have any arm strength.  How many tds did he throw to Randy at Marshall?  50 a year?

 

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Pennington grew up in Knoxville and desperately wanted to play for the Vols. But because of arm strength concerns, Phil Fulmer wouldnt give him a scholarship. Pennington was invited to walk on at Tennessee, but he declined. He went on to have a very productive career at Marshall.

 

I was high on Pennington going into last season. But thankfully didnt have him in any of my leagues. If last year is any indication of future fantasy performance, then he isnt worth drafting. However, lets hope last year was an abbarration. I heard his shoulder was never really healthy last year. is that true Rovers?

[Rovers]

Pennington grew up in Knoxville and desperately wanted to play for the Vols.  But because of arm strength concerns, Phil Fulmer wouldnt give him a scholarship.  Pennington was invited to walk on at Tennessee, but he declined.  He went on to have a very productive career at Marshall. 

 

I was high on Pennington going into last season.  But thankfully didnt have him in any of my leagues.  If last year is any indication of future fantasy performance, then he isnt worth drafting.  However, lets hope last year was an abbarration.  I heard his shoulder was never really healthy last year.  is that true Rovers?

 

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It certainly wasn't healthy after the injury, but his comments about it feeling better than it has in years, if it is to be believed, is revealing. I had this same surgery, and the dern thing hurt YEARS before I got to the point if not being able to lift my arm. My GUESS is that he had some damage in there before he completely tore it, as did I. So, yeah, there is a chance, a reasonable one, that his arm strength will be better than it has been in years. Bottom line, the second to last pre season game should tell us FF'ers what we need to know. Until then, it's just guessing.

[spain]

It certainly wasn't healthy after the injury, but his comments about it feeling better than it has in years, if it is to be believed, is revealing. I had this same surgery, and the dern thing hurt YEARS before I got to the point if not being able to lift my arm. My GUESS is that he had some damage in there before he completely tore it, as did I. So, yeah, there is a chance, a reasonable one, that his arm strength will be better than it has been in years. Bottom line, the second to last pre season game should tell us FF'ers what we need to know. Until then, it's just guessing.

 

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Thanks Rovers! I tend to agree that the shoulder was bothering him last year but should be improved this year. But how much is the question...

[Rovers]

I got curious, and took a look at Pennington's numbers last year, before the injury, and after. He played in 7 games before the shoulder injury, and 7games afterwards, including 2 playoff games. He got injured in week 8, so that game along with the next 3 he missed aren't included. Here is what I came up with:

 

The first stat is pre-injury, the second stat is post injury.

ATT/Comp: 199/137, 220/142

TD's: 8 pass, 1 rush- 9 pass

INT's: 2-7

Comp%: 68%, 63%

Yards/ATT: 7.6-6.77

Yards/Comp: 11-10.4

Yards passing: 1512-1491

 

I think it's important to note that before the injury, the Jets were 6-1, while after the injury they went 3-4. Pennington, especially in Paul Hackett's offense, didn't have to throw much in those first seven games, where the Jets were holding a lead most of the time. However, in those last seven games, with the Jets often playing from behind, Pennington didn't throw much more than he did in the first 7 games. His numbers were down across the board in ctitical stats like INT's, Y/Comp, Y/Att and completion %. There is no doubt he just couldn't get enough on the ball, even on short range passes. Edwards later admitted the had to cut down on the number of pass play calls, Pennington just couldn't throw well enough.

 

The comments that Pennigton has made leads me to believe he has had some damage in his throwing shoulder for some time. He said his shoulder feels better than it has in years now. Based on the actual amount of damage they say they found during surgery supports this.... his shoulder was pretty bad. It's amazing to me that he played at all in those last seven games.

 

I'll be going to Jets opening day of camp on July 29, and I'll show up there a few more times after that. Since I've seen Pennington throw up close before, I should get a good idea of how healthy he is. You never know what drills they might be doing on a given day, so several visits are the only way to gauge how certain players are looking, including Martin and some of our rookies, along with guys like Coles and McGraw. For instance, last year Martin blew me away.... he had an explosiveness I hadn't seen in several years. I didn't do it last year, but this year I'll file a report after each practice I attend. (I was a shy newbie last year).

[1stimer]

I'm guessing the db's in Marshall's conference didn't put up much of a fight

 

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I recall a friend telling me that Moss jumped right over a defender in college once ... not sure if it is true, but while the MAC isn't exactly the worst conference in college football, it certainly ain't the best.

[Rovers]

Didn't McNair come out of that conference?

[Big John]

Didn't McNair come out of that conference?

 

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Alcorn State - SWAC (Southwestern Athelic Conference)

Edited July 14, 2005 by Big John

[The Irish Doggy]

I'm not touching Penny this year. Hasn't stayed healthy at all. I know rotator cuff surgery from personal experience too. It took 2 years before I felt normal. Even with advanced training facilities, I'm skeptical that 6 months is far enough removed to be truely healthy. Plus he has a miserable passing schedule.

 

Its all risk and downside this year, IMO.

 

I wouldn't even make him my #2.

[Bill Swerski]

Agreed, but we, or I, arent talking about him as a #1 pick, either. The risk on a #2 QB makes Pennington a worthwhile risk, even given his injury history (which is one year healthy, followed by two years of unrelated significant injuries). #2 QB's with upside, and some risk really isn't sticking yer neck out very far. That is like saying a 4th WR who has upside with an injury history is a bad pick.... like a certain Detroit WR this year. Sure, taking Taylor as a #2 RB would be silly, but this is not that. We are talking about a back up with up side.

 

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IMO, Pennington's worth the risk as a #1 QB in the middle rounds. I'll gladly take him in the 7th.

[yo mama]

IMO, Pennington's worth the risk as a #1 QB in the middle rounds.  I'll gladly take him in the 7th.

 

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I tend to agree. However, I'd only do this if I thought I could follow that pick up with a quality back up (maybe Brees or Griese) in the 8th or 9th. Because I don't want to be going into the season with a risky starter like Pennington and not have a very solid back up.

[Rovers]

I'll know once camp starts.... trust me on this one. If he looks like chit, I'll say so. If he has some zip on throws of 45 yards, I'll report that too. I think the tougher schedule will actually help Pennigton's fantasy numbers, although it isn't good for my team. If he doesnt throw for something near 3500 yards this year, the Jets are in trouble.