Bronco Billy Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 (edited) Last season, Larry Johnson put up 416 rushes, the most in the history of the NFL in a season. In the past 25 years, players have met or exceeded 370 rushes 25 times - including Johnson last year. The season after having that many carries the RB performed significantly worse almost every time. Only one of the RBs, Eric Dickerson in 1983, actually gained rushing yardage the following season, gaining 295 more yards in 1984 - but he had 4 less rushing TDs. Every time a RB hit or exceeded 370 carries, he had less TDs the following year. Only Dickerson in '83, Walter Payton in '84, and Tomlinson in '02 didn't have their rushing yardage totals drop at least 227 yds the following year. Only Dickerson in '84, John Riggins in '83, James Wilder in '85, & Ricky Williams in '03 didn't see their rushes drop by at least 50 carries. The average drop for the 23 (Ricky Williams in '03 isn't counted since he didn't play in '04) events is: 3 less games played, 118 fewer carries, 652 fewer rushing yards, and 7 fewer rushing TDs. Lest anyone think these numbers are skewed dramatically because players didn't play the next season, Williams is the only one who didn't play the following season. If you single out the following seasons where player played in at least 15 games, there are 12 events, (8) 16 game seasons and (4) 15 game seasons. Of those 12 seasons, rushes dropped an average of 55 rushes in the season, rushing yards dropped by an average of 312 yds, and rushing TDs dropped by an average of 6. So, if history has shown us anything in the past 25 years, it's that if a RB is run into the ground in a year, the following year he'll have a dramatic drop in his production. There's a 33% chance he'll miss at least 1/4th of the season, and even if he plays all the games that his production will drop significantly. You have been warned... ******************************************************** Raw data: Player/year -- Rushes that year -- fewer games next year -- fewer rushes next year -- fewer rush yards next year -- fewer rush TDs next year Player/year Rushes - gms - rushes - ru yds - ru TDsS Alexander '05 370 6 118 984 20C Martin '04 371 4 151 962 7R Williams '03 392 4 152 1060 7J Lewis '03 387 0 -10 481 7R Williams '02 383 DNP L Tomlinson '02 372 0 59 38 1E George '00 403 0 88 570 9E James '00 387 10 236 1047 10J Anderson '98 410 14 391 1787 14T Davis '98 392 12 325 1797 19J Bettis '97 375 0 59 480 4E Smith '95 377 1 50 569 13B Foster '92 390 7 213 979 3E Smith '92 373 2 90 227 9C Okoye '89 370 1 125 675 5E Dickerson '88 370 1 74 348 7E Dickerson '86 404 4 121 533 5G Riggs '85 397 0 54 392 1M Allen '85 380 3 172 1000 6J Wilder '84 407 0 42 244 3W Payton '84 381 0 56 133 2E Dickerson '84 379 2 87 871 2E Dickerson '83 390 0 11 -295 4J Riggins '83 375 1 48 108 10 ** - a negative number indicates a gain over the previous year Edited March 9, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I posted this info last year about Shaun Alexander.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 9, 2007 Author Share Posted March 9, 2007 I posted this info last year about Shaun Alexander.... You must be a smart man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
untateve Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I posted this info last year about Shaun Alexander.... wish I had seen it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 wish I had seen it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 This is good info ...but let me ask which) in a standard scoring league would you take before LJ ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 9, 2007 Author Share Posted March 9, 2007 (edited) This is good info ...but let me ask which) in a standard scoring league would you take before LJ ?? I remember seeing that question being asked last year about Alexander, with the question marks regarding the top 3 RBs drafted being focused on Johnson due to his upright running style & the losses on the O-line. I also remember a few of us putting forth that Johnson would be just fine & that Alexander should have been the one with the question marks due to the loss of Hutchinson & his workload the previous year. What you do with the information is up to you - but there were a lot more warning signs about Alexander last year than there were about Johnson, IMO. This year the top 3 RBs drafted ought to be LT, LJ, & Jackson. Now the buyer beware label has shifted on to Johnson. If you have the #1 or #2 pick, red flags ought to be going up on Johnson & you ought to be considering LT & Jackson. If you have the #3 pick, you're hoping that Jackson is there for you, but if it's Johnson that's left, you're in quite a dilemma. Johnson figures to see his production drop significantly - it might be time to shop that pick & gain extra picks. That so many good RBs have had such a power outage after such a rigorous season isn't simply a statistical anomoly. Virtually no RBs return to that kind of production after seeing so much work the season before - and Johnson saw more work last year than any RB in NFL history. Edited March 9, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 LJ is more likely to score less next year because the Chiefs are gonna be terrible. I don't think the rushing attempt correlation in this case will matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I remember seeing that question being asked last year about Alexander, with the question marks regarding the top 3 RBs drafted being focused on Johnson due to his upright running style & the losses on the O-line. I also remember a few of us putting forth that Johnson would be just fine & that Alexander should have been the one with the question marks due to the loss of Hutchinson & his workload the previous year. What you do with the information is up to you - but there were a lot more warning signs about Alexander last year than there were about Johnson, IMO. This year the top 3 RBs drafted ought to be LT, LJ, & Jackson. Now the buyer beware label has shifted on to Johnson. If you have the #1 or #2 pick, red flags ought to be going up on Johnson & you ought to be considering LT & Jackson. If you have the #3 pick, you're hoping that Jackson is there for you, but if it's Johnson that's left, you're in quite a dilemma. Johnson figures to see his production drop significantly - it might be time to shop that pick & gain extra picks. That so many good RBs have had such a power outage after such a rigorous season isn't simply a statistical anomoly. Virtually no RBs return to that kind of production after seeing so much work the season before - and Johnson saw more work last year than any RB in NFL history. I agree with your top 3 ...I would have sjax behind tomlinson and then LJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 You must be a smart man. Well, duh. However, just to further underscore your point, look at how many times a player has bounced back from 400 carries. None the following year. I don't blame someone for taking a risk on LJ, but I'd damn well better have his backup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Had LT 2 years in a row in our auction league but 3d is almost guaranteed not to happen as he'll be overpriced this year (as our owners often seem to think last year = this year). So will LJ and Jackson, probably.......so I like SA as a hopefully (and relatively) "cheap" option to bounce back for a nice year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 LJ is more likely to score less next year because the Chiefs are gonna be terrible. I don't think the rushing attempt correlation in this case will matter. Agreed that this will likely be the most significant factor. LJ's going to see 8 men in the box quite a bit this season. While 400-carry seasons aren't good for any RB, I'd say that its impact on LJ would be less than many of the other backs listed in the first post. Guys like Terrell Davis and Eddie George not only had significantly more carries in their NFL careers than LJ at the time that they experienced their drop-offs in production, but they also had a ton of playoff carries IN ADDITION to their 350+ carry seasons. Terrell Davis had a whopping 951 total carries from the beginning of the '97 season through SB 33. Yikes! No wonder his knee gave out the following season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 (edited) I'm picking LJ second. Actually, I'll pick Peyton ahead of him if it's a league that scores 6 points for a passing td. I want nothing to do with SJax. He is big Veronica in my book, regardless of last year. LJ is a beast. LJ has about 2,000 carries left in him. Although the stats dispute I agree with this. Not sure what a veronica is but im not ready to make SJAX a stud yet. The fact that he doesnt split carries might get him there though..Hes talented but I have also seen the Rams misuse him and him dissapear a lot. Edited March 11, 2007 by whomper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 I'm a little leery of Jackson too, but he showed a lot last year and ignoring a full season injury-free makes no sense. Might take him as my #1, although I think he'll also be overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 While 400-carry seasons aren't good for any RB, I'd say that its impact on LJ would be less than many of the other backs listed in the first post. Guys like Terrell Davis and Eddie George not only had significantly more carries in their NFL careers than LJ at the time that they experienced their drop-offs in production, but they also had a ton of playoff carries IN ADDITION to their 350+ carry seasons. Terrell Davis had a whopping 951 total carries from the beginning of the '97 season through SB 33. Yikes! No wonder his knee gave out the following season. Exactly what I was gonne point out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House of Pain Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Does anyone else remember BB's RB stats/projections ??? I'll clue you in.....For 4 years, all the research he did was quite painful, it hurt anyone who took it !!!! I am in a league with BB and he did trade LJ/Priest, so at least he is backing up the bullyshat he preaches this time around. BTW, Jay, tell the wife I said Hi......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 11, 2007 Author Share Posted March 11, 2007 Does anyone else remember BB's RB stats/projections ??? I'll clue you in.....For 4 years, all the research he did was quite painful, it hurt anyone who took it !!!! I am in a league with BB and he did trade LJ/Priest, so at least he is backing up the bullyshat he preaches this time around. BTW, Jay, tell the wife I said Hi......... & tell the wife whatever you want the next time you see her... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chavez Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 No wonder his knee gave out the following season. His knee gave out because somebody's helmet rammed into the side of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Does anyone else remember BB's RB stats/projections ??? I'll clue you in.....For 4 years, all the research he did was quite painful, it hurt anyone who took it !!!! I am in a league with BB and he did trade LJ/Priest, so at least he is backing up the bullyshat he preaches this time around. BTW, Jay, tell the wife I said Hi......... shut up sasquatch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 shut up sasquatch. Sasquach is I Like Soup's younger, but bigger brother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) I love the denial. "Hell, it happened 23 other times out of 23 times in the past 25 years, but it won't happen this time with Larry Johnson, despite some of the incredible studs on the list above." Okay, so if you are walking down the street 23 days in a row & the old lady next door comes out & kicks you in the nuts every single one of those days - don't you start wearing a cup on day 24? Edited March 12, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I don't see LJ repeating this year either right now. Avg. plummeted last year and his production was less than last year with 80 more carries. While BB presents a nice theory it's not the only way you can come to this conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) I love the denial. "Hell, it happened 23 other times out of 23 times in the past 25 years, but it won't happen this time with Larry Johnson, despite some of the incredible studs on the list above." Okay, so if you are walking down the street 23 days in a row & the old lady next door comes out & kicks you in the nuts every single one of those days - don't you start wearing a cup on day 24? No, since I'm not stupid enough or weak enough to allow it to get that far in the first place. Was it the baseball uni that got her attention BB? Edit: really my take on this is "who cares" - OK so he won't go 2000+/20+....he might "only" go 1600-1700 and TDs somewhere in the teens. I think I could live with it as I really doubt he'll just crash n burn outright. Edited March 12, 2007 by BeeR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I agree with your top 3 ...I would have sjax behind tomlinson and then LJ Keeper league inaugral draft, 1.01 picks LT 1.02 picks SJax. Would you still take LJ @ 1.03? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Keeper league inaugral draft, 1.01 picks LT 1.02 picks SJax. Would you still take LJ @ 1.03? Given the data above, I'd try to trade down & pick up additional and/or higher picks later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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