i_am_the_swammi Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Was sitting here last night thinking about my #2 pick in a redraft league, and started to really analyze what could happen in KC this year. yes, it looks like LJ will be the next coming, but what could go wrong? I started to look at his TDs from last year, and surprisingly, more than half of his rushing TDs (13 out of 20) came from outside 5-yards. While this speaks volumes about his ability to take it to the house from anywhere, it also raises a flag that he is not the goalline hawk that Priest was from 1-2 yards out. In fact, I remember numerous occasions last year that, as an LJ owner, I was frustrated that he couldn't punch it in from the 1-yard line. With the heaviest workload of his career ahead of him (he has NEVER started 16 games in any season in his life), he could be an injury waiting to happen. And with Priest in the mix, is there a chance that Holmes becomes the goalline vulture in this offense? Just not totally sold on all the hype, especially in a new offensive scheme...he could be worth every penny, but I think he has a chance to be overvalued, esp. if he ends up losing 5-7 TDs around the goalline. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Was sitting here last night thinking about my #2 pick in a redraft league, and started to really analyze what could happen in KC this year. yes, it looks like LJ will be the next coming, but what could go wrong? I started to look at his TDs from last year, and surprisingly, more than half of his rushing TDs (13 out of 20) came from outside 5-yards. While this speaks volumes about his ability to take it to the house from anywhere, it also raises a flag that he is not the goalline hawk that Priest was from 1-2 yards out. In fact, I remember numerous occasions last year that, as an LJ owner, I was frustrated that he couldn't punch it in from the 1-yard line. With the heaviest workload of his career ahead of him (he has NEVER started 16 games in any season in his life), he could be an injury waiting to happen. And with Priest in the mix, is there a chance that Holmes becomes the goalline vulture in this offense? Just not totally sold on all the hype, especially in a new offensive scheme...he could be worth every penny, but I think he has a chance to be overvalued, esp. if he ends up losing 5-7 TDs around the goalline. Thoughts? My thoughts echo what you have said. If I had #1 overall, I would have to go with LT merely because he is worthy of it, and you know what youre getting with him. Same with SA. LJ makes a great #3 pick for me, but with proven players at 1 and 2 Im sticking with a for sure thing. If LJ duplicates his performance of last years last 9 games, then ya, I take him the following year #1, but right now he is 3rd in my book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyalboyd Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Anything is possible. But LJ is one of those backs you look at now with VERY low mileage put out their to run. Think about it he got the best of both worlds. Not a rookie, which out runs everyone based off pure talent. But can do that. Has the vision and power of a true vet by working out in the NFL weightlifting program 4 yrs now. And the mileage of a first yr rookie hit wise going into his second. So overall, this is worth noting considering LT and SA both have lots of mileage. But anyone is one hit away from being injured. But he dont have the dings that LT and SA has. So if you think about it like this SA Madden Cover. LT getting injured more and more as the yrs and mileage pile up on him. LJ has the best of both worlds and may now be the next great back like Faulk, Priest and LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 (edited) Anything is possible. But LJ is one of those backs you look at now with VERY low mileage put out their to run. Think about it he got the best of both worlds. Not a rookie, which out runs everyone based off pure talent. But can do that. Has the vision and power of a true vet by working out in the NFL weightlifting program 4 yrs now. And the mileage of a first yr rookie hit wise going into his second. So overall, this is worth noting considering LT and SA both have lots of mileage. But anyone is one hit away from being injured. But he dont have the dings that LT and SA has. So if you think about it like this SA Madden Cover. LT getting injured more and more as the yrs and mileage pile up on him. LJ has the best of both worlds and may now be the next great back like Faulk, Priest and LT. Yup, and trust me he can punch it into the EZ just the way Priest could. They run the same plays and LJ has even leaped over the top ala Holmes in a game last season. It's as if you all are trying to find ways to talk yourself out of taking him. Take LT, or SA before you take him, they are all three worthy of the #1 overall pick, I just am very confident that LJ will be the one on top at the end of the season. Only 168 more days of defending him until the season begins and we all find out what our rankings might end up like. Edited June 8, 2006 by Hat Trick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piranha Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I admit I agree. I would be a little nervous about taking LJ first overall this year. I'm actually hoping I get 2nd pick and LT falls to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 In 14 starts over the last 2 seasons, LJ has averaged 29PPG. That's more than 5 PPG higher than the next highest starting RB in either season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 LT has burned people the last 2 years when he was needed the most. Sure, he can carry you to the playoffs, but once there you're on your own.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted June 8, 2006 Author Share Posted June 8, 2006 In 14 starts over the last 2 seasons, LJ has averaged 29PPG. That's more than 5 PPG higher than the next highest starting RB in either season. Talent, and fresh legs, will do that. Any thoughts on whether he can sustain that pace while playing 16 games for the first time EVER?? Also, he did that without someone stealing carries (he started with Holmes hurt).....with Holmes suited up, he is surely going to see some action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 In 14 starts over the last 2 seasons, LJ has averaged 29PPG. That's more than 5 PPG higher than the next highest starting RB in either season. The numbers don't lie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AquaticRay Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Take LJ and then trade him. His value will never be much higher. I got Edge, McAllister and Moulds for him and Chris Henry. in one league. I already had R. Bush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Talent, and fresh legs, will do that. Any thoughts on whether he can sustain that pace while playing 16 games for the first time EVER?? Also, he did that without someone stealing carries (he started with Holmes hurt).....with Holmes suited up, he is surely going to see some action. Holmes in 8 games in 2004 averaged a little over 24 fantasy PPG, and then got hurt. I would think his legs would be considered 'fresh' for 8 games. There is no reason to think that the guy can;t do it. He hasn;t shown to be injury prone, he runs people over, and has produced better in the same system as someone a lot of people consider to be one of the greatest fantasy backs of all time. By all means, pass on him and let me take him!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 He has displyed enough talent already to warrant the #1 pick despite any question marks... because in reality EVERY player has question marks. No pick is a guarantee from season to season, but I think Johnson's risk/reward ratio is definitely worthy of the top ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted June 8, 2006 Author Share Posted June 8, 2006 Holmes in 8 games in 2004 averaged a little over 24 fantasy PPG, and then got hurt. That's kind of my point...KC demands so much from their RBs that it seems Holmes was nicked-up on a regular basis. Is the same thing going to happen to LJ? Or will KC finally "get it", and start using a quasi-RBBC (25-10 split), especially as the season wears on (towards the fantasy playoffs!) All this being said, I would probably take him at #2, even if he does lose carries (which I would welcome as an LJ owner to keep him fresh, just not at the goal-line).....just trying to play devil's advocate, and see if anyone else shares some of the same concerns I do. BTW, in my book, LT and SA also have their own issues to overcome, perhaps even moreso than LJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Return Of S&B Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Considering Herman rode Curtis Martin like no other back in the league the past 5-6 years (350-400 carries per year) I think he will do the same with Larry. He knows he has a young fresh workhorse in his backfield and I suspect he will hold nothing back in terms of giving Larry the ball. As for goal-line carries, I highly doubt Holmes will be back and anyone else on that team will be a threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizards Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Considering Herman rode Curtis Martin like no other back in the league the past 5-6 years (350-400 carries per year) I think he will do the same with Larry. He knows he has a young fresh workhorse in his backfield and I suspect he will hold nothing back in terms of giving Larry the ball. As for goal-line carries, I highly doubt Holmes will be back and anyone else on that team will be a threat. Ride'em LJ Fan....me....16 games from now I can tell you who will be number 1 in 2007's drafts/rankings, etc.....bet a sig line it's not LJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Return Of S&B Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Ride'em LJ Fan....me....16 games from now I can tell you who will be number 1 in 2007's drafts/rankings, etc.....bet a sig line it's not LJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Never said he would be number 1, but I'm curious, what's your top-5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfv87 Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 He has displyed enough talent already to warrant the #1 pick despite any question marks... because in reality EVERY player has question marks. No pick is a guarantee from season to season, but I think Johnson's risk/reward ratio is definitely worthy of the top ranking. I agree here. Every Top RB is a slip away from an ACL, Larry I believe put up outrageous number in college for yards and CARRIES. I would have a hard time taking #1 but very well could. LT and SA would be in the mix also. (obviously) My decision would be that LJ really offers a chance to be unstoppable from a FF perspective. That would make him my #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizards Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 1--SA--no doubt, even with Hutch gone...how can you argue with 28 TD's??? 2--LT--believe with new QB (Rivers) even more opportunities here to shine/score... 3--LJ--let's see--Roaf is 36, Shields-35 in Sept.,Waters is 29, Welbourn is 30, Kennison is 33, Trent Green is 36 in Sept., Gonzo is 30, J. Dunn is 33, Dante Hall is 28....all LJ's team that surrounds him needs to stay healthy too to enjoy the supposedly great year he is going to have....IMO 3rd is over rating him as his supporting cast is going to be dinged, injured and on Geritol at times during the season....replacements downgrade his value...particularly at QB, WR and TE..... 4--Ronnie Brown---love the Williams departure for a year..believe Brown is in big this year.... 5--Tiki Barber---most undervalued FF player in NFL...IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Lemme tell ya'll how it's gonna go with Larry Johnson. Dude is soooo good, he'll score ya 15 points his bye week. Herm is ready to ride his stud to the play offs and if you've got the #1 pick, so should you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Take LJ and then trade him. His value will never be much higher. Right now, people's jaws are still on the floor when they "project" LJ's stats over 16 games. You get a lot of value with the "jaw-drop" factor. In reality, LJ's numbers will probably be very similar to LT's and SA's. That's why the #3 pick is the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 Ride'em LJ Fan....me....16 games from now I can tell you who will be number 1 in 2007's drafts/rankings, etc.....bet a sig line it's not LJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Okay, I'll bite. Sigline, whole offseason. I say the #1 RB back will NOT be Alexander You say LJ will not be the #1 RB. Standard scoring. 1 PPR 6 pts TD 1 pt per 10 yards Rush and Rec You game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 (edited) The numbers don't lie. Agreed..14 starts in 2 years does not tell you if he will be dependable or not. he would be my 3rd choice. then you add to it the fact that they have much lesser coaching this year and I think you find another concern. Edited June 8, 2006 by Doc Holliday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I think LJ is the real deal....the OL is great and he runs with a mean streak... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Row Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 I wouldnt tell people i made that deal. That deal sucks bad for you. You got a veteran plodder behind a ho-hum O-Line in James, you got a dinged up time-sharer for a bad team in Deuce McAllister, Moulds is beyond junk, and Chris Henry will be wearing prison orange by the end of the pre season. While Larry has some risk about him (aging offense, lost their FB, new coaching), that stuff you got for him is junk, nice trade Ouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted June 8, 2006 Share Posted June 8, 2006 3--LJ--let's see--Roaf is 36, Shields-35 in Sept.,Waters is 29, Welbourn is 30, Kennison is 33, Trent Green is 36 in Sept., Gonzo is 30, J. Dunn is 33, Dante Hall is 28....all LJ's team that surrounds him needs to stay healthy too to enjoy the supposedly great year he is going to have....IMO 3rd is over rating him as his supporting cast is going to be dinged, injured and on Geritol at times during the season....replacements downgrade his value...particularly at QB, WR and TE..... Good point, and one that I've made here before. KC's offense is geriatric and is going to crash big-time (think: 2003 Raiders) soon. It may not be this season, but it's going to be ugly when it happens. They have no legitimate backup for Trent, their young WRs are nothing special, and losing Roaf and Shields to retirement and/or injury will also hurt that running game. Even with the extra mileaga, I'd probably take SA over LJ simply because his supporting cast will be around longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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