passing TD's worth 6 pts. where would you draft pmanning?

[cdj7k]

i am in a league where all touchdowns are worth 6 points. so that has always added value to the qb position. i think since after the big 3 it is such a crap shoot for the next 6-8 runningbacks as far as how they will produce it could be worth the early draft pick for a known quantity like manning who will handle the ball a ton. how many of us especially two years ago were dead meat the week we played a peyton manning team plus any bum the guy had on his roster. unless you had a tomlinson, holmes, or alexander you were usually done unless someone unexpected on your team exploded. when you are in the middle of the draft that is what you usually end up with when you follow the conventional wisdom.

 

when you dont get a difference maker, you are usually just over or under .500 for the year. i think he can carry a team better than oneof the other available runningbacks on a week in and week out basis when you get 6 points per td. you do lose 2 points for int's and fumbles.

 

what do you think? thanks

[TecmoBeast]

late second when the sure-thing RBs are gone

[Robash]

i wont draft him high, there were two QB's that outscored him last year in most leagues and a few that were right behind him. id say let someone else take a hit at rb and go with another tier 1 or tier 2 qb

[Furd]

Big John will be along shortly to help you out.

[Grits and Shins]

I find it odd that this question has never been asked before ...

[Duchess Jack]

Its all reletive. The only thing that 6pt TDs do is make scrambling QBs a little less valuable compaired to their pocket passing counter parts.

 

Whatever the case - a middle of the line QB will always perform more closely to an Elite QB than a middle of the line RB will to an elite RB.

 

Thusly, early on - RBs win out every time

[Bonedaddies]

You can't win without RB's in any format, in my league we have 6 pt's for QB TD's AND 1 pt for every 10 yards passing, manning goes number 7-9 each year and has only won the league once in the past 5 years.

 

QB's this year look like the RB's, once you get to #4 or #5 it's all a crap shoot. there are some great names, but many are injured and "may be ready for the opener" Dante, Brees, Palmer....the rest seem to be getting too old or are rooks.

 

another thing to keep in mind is RBBC, seems most teams are going, or have gone to; 2 backs, 30 carries a game will be a thing of the past shortly.

[buckeyejim]

QB's no earlier then the 3rd round. No matter which QB it is.

[Big Country]

Do a search.. this exact same question has been addressed several times, at least once in the last couple of weeks, and there is a detailed article written by David Dorey going onto the affect of 6 point passing TDs on an overall scoring system.

 

To put it in it's most basic form, 6 point passing TDs do almost nothing for the overall value of QBs in a league, it does little more than add to the total points they are likely to score.

[jetsman2806]

it would depend on the amount of teams in the league 10-12 teams i would grab him in the late 1st if he reach's me, 14+ its not worth it to grab a QB before the 3rd, cause u will get screwed on the backs and wrs.

[tomfin2000]

I'm repeating myself here (hence Grits and Shins' comment), but last year our 12 team league went from 4 points for a passing TD to 6 points. This caused a bigger run than usual on QBs. In fact, 8 QBs (Manning, Culpepper, McNabb, Bulger, Farve, Vick, Collins, Green) were already off the board by the middle of the fourth round.

 

I waited until the 5th round to take my QB (Hasselbeck). Another guy also waited until the 5th round to take his (Brady).

 

Guess which two teams played for the championship?

Edited July 6, 2006 by tomfin2000

[suppasonic]

I would take manning no earlier than the 4th in most common formats.

[cdj7k]

hey guys, i agree for the most part. i should have mentioned that this is a 10 team league. that does make a difference as far as depth.

 

i have not drafted a QB before the 4th round in the past and, really, am not planning on it this year. i just think you are setting up the guys who pick 1-3 in the first with a very nice turn around with their 2nd and 3rd picks. they can start another run at a different position and you are chasing them every round.

 

the solid rb's will get you their 10 to 12 td's a year and that is a safe team, but i dont think unless you gamble a little bit, you are going to be there at the end. whether that is at QB or WR or TE. if you dont look for the guy who can put you over the top 2 or 3 games a year with his production, you are ringing your hands every week hoping SOMEBODY on your team scores that extra TD to get you by.

 

i am just thinking that when you draft, you have to get at least one difference maker to go along with your overall good draft. the guy who will carry your team on his back some weeks. and i am just thinking this year after the first 6 backs or so, even if they are a full time starter, there is no sure fire thing.

 

4 years ago i was at the end of the draft on the turn around and drafted s alexander and d mcallistar when they were ranked around 7 or 8 each. they consistently scored about 22-26 points a week between them. it just seemed that only one of them would put td's up on a given week. you get a guy who is putting up about 90-100 yds a week, but doesnt score a td and maybe lays a fumble or two down and you arent getting much for that high pick. that team was competitive, but not a team that could get it done on a regular basis.

 

all that to say is i hate to see these teams that draft a LJ or LT or SA get a pmanning and gates or some other 1st tier player on the comeback and you set there waiting for the crumbs again. that team has 2 or 3 players that can strike big. yours has no big threats.

 

and i know you guys have played for 2 or 3 times longer than i have and that is cool. i have had success in my leagues over the last 4 years as well. and i know full well the first and second round will not win me another championship alone, but i am just looking at the young runningbacks this year who are in the top ten ratings and it reminds me a little of mcgahee last year. are they worth the risk as opposed to a more proven player at another position.

 

i am in five leagues and some have keepers so it will all end up different anyway, but i think it is not a huge risk to take a manning for his upside in the second and grab your 2nd running back in the third, especially in a 10 team league which i should have stated earlier and i apologize for that, but even in a 12 team league. i would not consider it in a 14 team league at all. most folks won their league last year because of a late round pick of LJ. so you can win from anywhere in your draft if you draft right.

 

dig in and critic. adios, cdj7k

[Big Country]

No critics here.

 

But, look at it this way.

 

Take a best guess estimate on how much the RBs, if you were to go that way, would score on any given week. Given you are talking 10th pick, you are likely looking at an RB that can average 80-90 yards and game and get you say 1/2 TD a game (about 1200-1400 yards and 8-10 TDs a year). THen you could get a Brady or Hasselbeck type QB if you are so inclined to pick a QB early that will give you say 3500 yards and 25 TDs a year. FOr ease of discussion we'll say both strategies have you taking WRs last.

 

Compare that to taking Manning early (let's say 4000 yards and 30 TDs), one of the above mentioned RBs, and then an RB after that, which by that point you are looking at maybe 800-1000 yards and 5-7 TDs, and that is being generous given that you have added risk for most RBs in that range such as threat to lose the starting job or at the very least splitting carries, etc.

 

So, you can either have 2 solid, fairly dependable backs and a dependable QB, or you can have a dependable QB that will slightly outperform the QB you can get later, one fairly dependable RB and a bug question mark at RB, which is generally the hardest position to fill via free agency.

 

If you want to look for a difference maker at that swing spot and are set on not going RB-RB, then I would suggest that going for your top WR is more likely to get you a player that will set himself apart from a player at the same position that you can get later on, whilst Manning is less likely to set himself apart from a QB that can be had later.

 

So, as I say in every thread that asks the what should I do question, it al ldepends on who makes it to you at your pick. However, if you were to build a strategy heading into the draft, I can say looking to Manning at the 10/11 spot would not be very high on my list of wise strategical decisions, unless you firmly believe he is in store for another 4500+ yard season with 40+ TDs. I personally don't see that happening (would love it to as I have him in my local keeper).

[cdj7k]

big C, i agree with what you are saying. my main point with this years top 15-20 backs is alot of them are unproven to get that many yards and td's. but i agree the margin of difference with qb's is minimal normally. and with the wr's being fairly deep this year i will probably continue on the 2 runningbacks in the first 2 rounds as a plan with flexibility. i think the second runningback is just more of a crap shoot than usual. cdj7k

[Big Country]

big C, i agree with what you are saying. my main point with this years top 15-20 backs is alot of them are unproven to get that many yards and td's. but i agree the margin of difference with qb's is minimal normally. and with the wr's being fairly deep this year i will probably continue on the 2 runningbacks in the first 2 rounds as a plan with flexibility. i think the second runningback is just more of a crap shoot than usual. cdj7k

 

 

I think either runningback is a crap shoot there, but, they are a much safer creap shoot than later RBs, while IMO, they same can not be said about the other positions. QB scoring is traditionally very flat, even at the top, and this year, WRS seem to be a bigger clusterf@#$ than usual, with a solid 8-10 guys that have the potential to be a top WR, thus lessening the overall value of the position in the early rounds.

[tomfin2000]

If you want to look for a difference maker at that swing spot and are set on not going RB-RB, then I would suggest that going for your top WR is more likely to get you a player that will set himself apart from a player at the same position that you can get later on, whilst Manning is less likely to set himself apart from a QB that can be had later.

 

That's my take on it as well. I agree 100% that you need to get an impact player that can win games for you almost single-handedly at the swing spot, but I think the best RB available and a stud WR are the way to go. If you look at Manning's history, 2004 was an aberation. He's rarely thrown for 30 TDs or more.

 

If you need further proof, go look up Marino's stats. Aside from his record breaking seasons, he rarely threw for more than 30 TDs either.

 

Like Big Country said, there just isn't enough separation between the top 10 to 12 QBs. I won't deny that Manning is No. 1, but not by enough of a margin to spend the rest of your draft playing catch-up after you pass on RBs and WRs. You'll get most of your players at the end of runs instead of the beginning and that rarely ever works out.

[Zooty]

Mid to late second. I have about 12 RBs, 6-8 WRs and Gates (in TE mandatory leagues) ahead of him. I rank him around 24th overall and I play in mostly 6 pt leagues

 

but I wouldn't take him myself till mid 3rd FWIW

Edited July 6, 2006 by Zooty

[Avernus]

I like to see new and refreshing topics here at the huddle...

 

I just wanted to add that....this is like a breath of fresh ......umm

[cdj7k]

[cdj7k]

 

i felt that , too

[wildbluefan]

i have same scoring in my league (all TDs worth 6 pts), and have #6 pick . I will have to consider Manning there in first round, but still probably won't pull the trigger there ! Lest we forget, Manning had 28 TDs last year, certainly a huge drop-off from previous year ! Also, more importantly, EDGE was great in pass protection, so Manning figures to be under more intense pressure this year ! I just talked myself out of Manning in first round !!!!LOL