detlef Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I might submit that the return of Elvis Dummervile was a primary change, but i do not wish to sidetrack the discussion too much. That might have just a bit to do with it. Oh, and Azz, I just did points allowed back to 2006. It's basically the same thing. This year and last year look worse for your argument, the 06, 08, and 09 are a bit better and 07 is a wash. Needless to say, I would think the average defensive rank of a top 10 rushing team would need to be better than 12 in either points or yards allowed over an extended period of time for your argument to hold any water. And that seems to have been the case one year out of the last 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (edited) no, that is the part of characterizing BB's argument that was somewhat accurate. yes, he has indeed pointed to "irrational ill-will" toward tebow. rightly so. the part that is a disingenuous and ridiculous mischaracterization is when you say his argument is that you are "haters with no good reason to think he's not going to make it". he (and I, and everyone else) has said a hundred times that there is a very good chance he will never turn into a long-term answer as an NFL QB. the reasons are obvious, tebow at this point is a very subpar passer. rather, BB's argument has been that those asserting he has NO chance at being an effective NFL QB are being shown to be wrong, and that there is at least some chance he will make it in this league as a QB for a number of years. there is a very wide gulf between "no reason to think he won't make it" and "zero chance he will ever make it". almost all of us in this discussion are ultimately somewhere between those two poles, and yet you are saying BB is aiming at the former criteria when he has clearly and repeatedly articulated the latter. which is why drumming up that strawman to argue against is just a lame way of ensuring that everyone in this thread just continues to talk past each other. I'm not the one derailing the thread by trying to even bringing bias into the equation (even though there's probably in actuality more blind bias for him than against him). BB is the one that has been using that to discount the doubter's reasoning, even though, as you've said, we all fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.... So when BB brings up bias, you say it's "rightly so", but when I bring up that I think that's a cop-out BS excuse for why people doubt Tebow, that's a strawman argument? (ETA: and whenever BB brings up that Tebow looked "terrible" he follows it with some excuse about the play-calling, or whatever reason he can find for why it's not ALL on Tebow that he's struggling, so don't give this, "you're making a strawman" argument BS. That is literally all Billy continues to do. The argument changes weekly so he can have his cake and eats it too, asking for others to change their stripes about Tebow while he concedes he hasn't looked that good). Edited November 18, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rydher Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 So serious.... Full disclosure. I'm a Gator fan so I AM biased toward Tebow. Here is the bottom line as a football fan and still watch it for entertainment. Before Tebow - I would go mow the lawn before I watched a Denver game. Now, you can't peel me off the couch. Very fun and enjoyable. Bottom line as a Fantasy Player. The guy produces numbers and helps win me games. Both of those are a win-win for me. I could care less about all the stats and number crunching you guys are doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (edited) Not sure whether that's true historically, but here's the breakdown this year:Top 10 teams in Rushing yardage with tier total D ranking in () Philly (13) Houston (1) Oakland (26) Denver (17) Minnesota (23) Buffalo (29) SF (11) Carolina (20) Dallas (9) KC (22) I'm not exactly seeing the correlation that should be there. ETA: Actually, it's not really true at all. Over the last 5 years (including this one) 2008 was really the only year where even half the top 10 rushing teams were in the top 10 for total D, and for the last 3 years (including this one) there's been as many or more teams in the bottom 1/3 of total D as the top 1/3 among the top 10 rushing offenses. ok first of all, you are pulling a bit of statistical chicanery here. you compare the top 10 (which is basically the top 30%) in rushing O, with the top 10 (or 30%) in total D, and then set the bar at 50% overlap to demonstrate no correlation. in any case, my argument was that running the ball effectively helps the defense. so let's take a look at inidividual games this season. let's say a good barometer for a very strong game running the ball is 200 yards in a game (I specifically mentioned the broncos' D's performance in the KC and oakland games, and they had over 200 yards rushing in each). so I'm going to isolate out the games where any team ran for 200 yards or more and put their rushing yards in the first column, and then in the next two columns put the opposing teams yards against and points against. I have no idea what this is going to show, but let's just look and see what it bears out... 236 335 13239 267 7222 148 7261 172 12234 439 24299 416 24244 258 10218 421 33 (this vs the GB packers)223 454 35213 272 3203 310 19294 265 7206 275 24224 543 29236 252 7 that is 15 games. average total yards against for those games is 322, average total points against is 17. overall for the season, the average yards per game per team is 347 and the average points per game is 22. overall I guess I would say the correlation is there, but a little weaker than I would have thought with respect to total yards against. it's a pretty strong correlation in points against, of 5 points per game or a 30% difference. regardless, I think this is mostly just simple common sense. a team that runs the ball effectively eats clock. that means the defense is fresher when they are out there, and they are out there for fewer plays (which, on average, means fewer yards and lower scores against). Edited November 18, 2011 by Azazello1313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 So serious.... Full disclosure. I'm a Gator fan so I AM biased toward Tebow. Here is the bottom line as a football fan and still watch it for entertainment. Before Tebow - I would go mow the lawn before I watched a Denver game. Now, you can't peel me off the couch. Very fun and enjoyable. Bottom line as a Fantasy Player. The guy produces numbers and helps win me games. Both of those are a win-win for me. I could care less about all the stats and number crunching you guys are doing. You should still mow the lawn. You have a good 2&1/2 hours to do as you like before watching Tebow becomes interesting, unless like me you just love watching the anticiapation build. Really appreciating how bad he sucks through the first 3/4+ makes the magic even more impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 You should still mow the lawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm not the one derailing the thread by trying to even bringing bias into the equation (even though there's probably in actuality more blind bias for him than against him). BB is the one that has been using that to discount the doubter's reasoning, even though, as you've said, we all fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.... So when BB brings up bias, you say it's "rightly so", but when I bring up that I think that's a cop-out BS excuse for why people doubt Tebow, that's a strawman argument? no. is your reading comprehension really this terrible? I specifically called your pointing to BB bringing up bias "the part of characterizing BB's argument that was somewhat accurate". the strawman part is where you say he is accusing tebow's detractors of being "haters with no good reason to think he's not going to make it". he is clearly and emphatically NOT saying that they have no good reason to think he's not going to make it. he himself has pointed to many good reasons why he may not make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I might submit that the return of Elvis Dummervile was a primary change, but i do not wish to sidetrack the discussion too much. he's made 8 out of 10 starts this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Like I said before - what will the odds need to be to take a money bet that Tebow becomes a SB winning QB? Would you throw me $20 to win $100? What exactly does that prove? Marino never won a SB either. So can we equate Marino's passing ability with Tebow's? Or would Tebow be a better passer than Marino if God intervenes and a Tebow lead team does win the SB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 ok first of all, you are pulling a bit of statistical chicanery here. you compare the top 10 (which is basically the top 30%) in rushing O, with the top 10 (or 30%) in total D, and then set the bar at 50% overlap to demonstrate no correlation. in any case, my argument was that running the ball effectively helps the defense. so let's take a look at inidividual games this season. let's say a good barometer for a very strong game running the ball is 200 yards in a game (I specifically mentioned the broncos' D's performance in the KC and oakland games, and they had over 200 yards rushing in each). so I'm going to isolate out the games where any team ran for 200 yards or more and put their rushing yards in the first column, and then in the next two columns put the opposing teams yards against and points against. I have no idea what this is going to show, but let's just look and see what it bears out... 236 335 13239 267 7222 148 7261 172 12234 439 24299 416 24244 258 10218 421 33 (this vs the GB packers)223 454 35213 272 3203 310 19294 265 7206 275 24224 543 29236 252 7 that is 15 games. average total yards against for those games is 322, average total points against is 17. overall for the season, the average yards per game per team is 347 and the average points per game is 22. overall I guess I would say the correlation is there, but a little weaker than I would have thought with respect to total yards against. it's a pretty strong correlation in points against, of 5 points per game or a 30% difference. regardless, I think this is mostly just simple common sense. a team that runs the ball effectively eats clock. that means the defense is fresher when they are out there, and they are out there for fewer plays (which, on average, means fewer yards and lower scores against). Illustrating that the top 10 rushing teams rank all over the board in terms of how good their Ds are (which BTW is true over a 10 year sample) is not "statistical chicanery". It's showing that there's no actual correlation between being a good running team and being statistically good on D. I would also say that 200 yards rushing is more than just a very strong game, it's a great game. An outlier to be sure. That's 50 yards more than all but the top 4 teams are averaging this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOUND33 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Tebow stinks. Let's start over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 no. is your reading comprehension really this terrible? I Yes, and intentionally so from what I've seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOUND33 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 BB loves Tebow. Now let's end it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (edited) no. is your reading comprehension really this terrible? I specifically called your pointing to BB bringing up bias "the part of characterizing BB's argument that was somewhat accurate". the strawman part is where you say he is accusing tebow's detractors of being "haters with no good reason to think he's not going to make it". he is clearly and emphatically NOT saying that they have no good reason to think he's not going to make it. he himself has pointed to many good reasons why he may not make it. Okay, then please enlighten me with what he meant in response to caddyman's remarks here: That's the main point of the Tebow lack of confidence per say. It's nice that he is eeking out some wins against a mostly soft schedule. It always seems to be the argument with poor apssers that can run. See Mikie Vicky. We used to hear that even though he could not pass accurately, HE WAS A WINNER. To date he has won just one playoff game(i think). Tebow (or any strictly running QB) will never consistently win in the playoffs. All of the Tebow ball washers seem to want to cling to these few weak wins as something meaningful. For that matter, same goes for Andy Dalton. You have to win big games when they count to be considered a winner. So far, none of the QBs mentioned in this post have won anything close to a big game. Dalton has a chance becuase he can throw. The others...chances are slim. QUOTE (Bronco Billy @ 11/18/11 3:13pm) You don't like it because you can't stand Tebow? Fine. Keep changing the argument and moving the target so that you can continue get your rocks off by dimninishing Tebow, which by this thread as well as others on the front page is a very popular sport. But as a DEN fan, I'll gladly take what we are seeing now instead of the turds that the much better passer laid all over the field. Seriously, what other conclusion am I supposed to draw, when he keeps on bringing up things like irrational hate and responds to legitimate comments with "you don't like it because you can't stand Tebow?'. I'm still absolutely astonished how anyone who's followed this debate cannot plainly see that BB's continually pushes this idea that people who won't concede that Tebow could be good must have alterior motives. Okay, you got me. Yes, he doesn't do it every time to everyone, but he sure does it enough to detlef in particular to get called out on making BS excuses that are totally irrelevant to the opinion that he's responding to. Further, have you met Bronco Billy? And you're talking to me about reading comprehension? For a really smart guy, everyone here knows he will stubbornly twist any opinion that doesn't fall in line with his... But anyways, didn't mean to turn this into a pissing contest. It's just completely silly that that discrimination crap gets thrown around in a legitimate debate about Tebow's NFL skills (or lack thereof). Edited November 18, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Illustrating that the top 10 rushing teams rank all over the board in terms of how good their Ds are (which BTW is true over a 10 year sample) is not "statistical chicanery". It's showing that there's no actual correlation between being a good running team and being statistically good on D. I thought I was pretty clear on this. the statistical chicanery was comparing 30% with 30%, then setting the bar of determining correlation at 50% rather than 30%. I would also say that 200 yards rushing is more than just a very strong game, it's a great game. An outlier to be sure. That's 50 yards more than all but the top 4 teams are averaging this year. it's what the broncos are averaging since tebow took over (208 to be precise), so it seems like a pretty relevant barometer to the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddahj Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOUND33 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 bump Thanks. 9300 views. we've got a long way to go to 180,000. keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpfan1231 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What exactly does that prove? Marino never won a SB either. So can we equate Marino's passing ability with Tebow's? Or would Tebow be a better passer than Marino if God intervenes and a Tebow lead team does win the SB? It proves how confident in Tebow YOU really are? Easy to just continue to blow smoke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
untateve Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Trent Dilfer is a better QB than Dan Marino because Dilfer won a Superbowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caddyman Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Trent Dilfer is a better QB than Dan Marino because Dilfer won a Superbowl. Not the point we are making and you know it. Trent Dilfer was 10 times the QB Tebow ever will be. And that is sad. For Tebow and Bronco fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Denver's QB of the future is not on their roster yet...Nobody knows that better than the Bronco's management. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'canes2004 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Tebow plays to win and throws his body around on every play ...he isnot a great passer ( never will be ) and he does not have the natural skill of most of the other qb's in NFL , but he has a way to get others to play harder and believe and its working ...may not work forever but i did not think it would work at all so he may continue to surprise ...I think its a great story Yup, pretty much sums it up for me as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.