Jules_Winfield Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 I am in a 12 man league that gives 6 points per touchdown. Does Duante crack the first round? Second?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 I always wait on a QB, almost always. If it were there late in the 2nd that'd be about the only way I'd take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 I'm working on a little something that delves into this a bit (more on that at a later date) Assuming otherwise standard scoring (1 pt. per 25 passing, 1 per 10 rush/rec, 6 for rush/rec TD, etc.), last year was an anomaly year for QB qith the top 2 QBs (Manning & Culpepper) both scoring 100 points more than the #1 and #2 QB had scored in each of the previous two seasons. Now, looking at the average scoring by position for the last 3 years, and using 6 pts fopr TD passes, and figuring based on a 12 team league starting 1 QB, 2 RB and 3 WR, the #1 scoring QB is the 5th overall in value and the #2 QB is the 6th overall in value. Now, the numbers appear to be skewed a bit for the QB due to the extremely good year last year by Manning and Culpepper, who both scored 100 pts. more than the #3 QB, where as in the 2 seasons prior, it was only about a 20 point differential between QB2 and QB3. What I am getting at is, as Cpep seems ot be the consensus #2 QB, historically that position is about the 6th most valuable player in the league, but, looking at the mocks conducted so far this year, in the 2 12-teamers official Huddle mocks, he was taken at the 2.08 and the 2.04 picks. So,in value, he would crack the first round, in practice he is going early to mid 2nd round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 What my esteemed colleague, BigCountry, fails to mention, is that you can not parallel a QB's value when the best WR in the league is no longer a part of the equation. In short, I agree 100% with Clubfoothead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 What my esteemed colleague, BigCountry, fails to mention, is that you can not parallel a QB's value when the best WR in the league is no longer a part of the equation. In short, I agree 100% with Clubfoothead. 873836[/snapback] I merely was showing what the historical data says for the 2nd ranked QB (note the Cpep must actually finish #2 in QB scoring to fit this mold), showed where he went in mocks. What I did not do is give my personal opinion. Personally, I do not take him until beginning of the third. The loss of Moss and the loss of Smith giving a consistent ground threat hurt a lot more than the addition of Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson. Even so, I have a history of not going QB until much later in drafts, having waited as long as the 8th or 9th round before grabbing my first QB and have doen fairly well at that (mainly due to some "sleeper" QB picks panning out for me) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 They had MRob. I think you mean Travis Taylor. Either way, I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chires Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 2nd Round. I think he's the third best QB (assuming TO plays for Phily) behind Manning and McNabb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGameTime Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 I'll just say I think Cpapper is still a top 3 QB with or without Moss! Yes, Moss is a veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyy! big loss! Just keep in mind how he played last year when Moss went down????? He still looked "Pretty Damm Not Too Shabby" to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 What my esteemed colleague, BigCountry, fails to mention, is that you can not parallel a QB's value when the best WR in the league is no longer a part of the equation. In short, I agree 100% with Clubfoothead. 873836[/snapback] What you fail to recognize is that in the three games that Moss was totally out, CPeps QB rating averaged more than 8 points higher than it was with Moss. I think everyone is about to find out, that CPep was a hell of a lot more important to what little success the Viqueens had than was Moss. I would take Moss in the late part of the 1st round with the 10th, 11th or 12th pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 What you fail to recognize is that in the three games that Moss was totally out, CPeps QB rating averaged more than 8 points higher than it was with Moss. I think everyone is about to find out, that CPep was a hell of a lot more important to what little success the Viqueens had than was Moss. 874073[/snapback] OK, two points: First, QB rating don't mean dickdeedoo in terms of fantasy value. Now if you tell me that his average fantasy points where higher over those 3 games, I'd be interested. That being said, even if they were higher, the next qestion would be if he can sustain that level for an entire season without Moss. My guess is no, which is why I think you have to drop him down in the rankings. JMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 OK, two points: First, QB rating don't mean dickdeedoo in terms of fantasy value. Now if you tell me that his average fantasy points where higher over those 3 games, I'd be interested. That being said, even if they were higher, the next qestion would be if he can sustain that level for an entire season without Moss. My guess is no, which is why I think you have to drop him down in the rankings. JMHO. 874598[/snapback] He averaged approximately 30% fewer fantasy points with Moss out of the Line-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 He averaged approximately 30% fewer fantasy points with Moss out of the Line-up. 874633[/snapback] So, as usual, I'm right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 So, as usual, I'm right. 874639[/snapback] If leaching onto my nutsack is what gets you there, I'm a sharing guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 If leaching onto my nutsack is what gets you there, I'm a sharing guy 874663[/snapback] He's gonna be top 5, but his performance will be down. You'll lose that bet, to a Vikes fan, I can take some comfort in that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 If leaching onto my nutsack is what gets you there, I'm a sharing guy 874663[/snapback] Somebody in that thread really knows their $hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Scorp Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 (edited) Well, I have Culpepper ranked in MY top five ! I think the fact that All TD's are 6 points works against Culpepper slightly as I think he will run a little more this year than last. However, he still has some good receivers in Burleson and Taylor (whom I think will have a breakout year now that Duante is throwing him the ball). If Williamson can stretch the defense a little...lookout. I do not like to take QB's early, especially in a 12 team league. You give up too much at RB. 3rd round at earliest. Edited July 12, 2005 by T-Scorp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenokee Posted July 12, 2005 Share Posted July 12, 2005 Doesnt this all come down to a value issue? Alot of people tier players to assist them in this regard. With all TD's worth 6 points, QB's will be the highest scoring position within any league. So shouldn't an owner look at the fact that landing a Tier 1 type player (QB) over say a mid Tier 2 player (RB) have some merit in the drafting process? I subscribe to the RB theory (as do alot of owners), but I'm beginning to wonder if walking away with a top RB, QB and possibly TE through 3 rounds would not offset the scoring difference of the RB theory. Yeah, your RB corps would be shallow unless you hit on a sleeper, and WR's depth would be hurting as well (can you say waiver wire?), but you've secured 3 top notch players. The point difference in the K and DEF positions are pretty much a wash. That accounts for 5 starting slots out of 9 (1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE,K,DEF type line-up). Figure most owners have 2-3 non-stud type players in their starting roster on a weekly basis, that accounts for 7-8 starting slots. Now we get back to the point advantage you would gain by having those top tier players you drafted in rounds 1-3 (RB,QB,TE). Over the course of a season, the points generated by these players could offset the shortcomings you have in the RB/WR department. Just some thoughts that came back to mind after reading this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted July 13, 2005 Share Posted July 13, 2005 Would be surprised if he made the first round ... Manning maybe, but would assume most will be put off by the loss of Moss, and going RB anyway. I would rather keep on the RB train and get a top 10 RB as my #1Rb and a good QB, than a #1-2 QB with a 10-20 RB anchoring my team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime9287 Posted July 14, 2005 Share Posted July 14, 2005 2nd Round. I think he's the third best QB (assuming TO plays for Phily) behind Manning and McNabb 874009[/snapback] Agreed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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