First Draft of the Year

[DMD]

This was a 12 team draft with standard scoring and no reception points.

 

Always interesting to see where players are falling this year. Chris Johnson got no love here. Spiller is enjoying an alltime high draft spot.

 

 

Round 1

 

1.1 Peterson, A. RB (MIN

1.2 Foster, A. RB (HOU)

1.3 Rice, R. RB (BAL)

1.4 Martin, D. RB (TAM)

1.5 Charles, J. RB (KAN)

1.6 Rodgers, A. QB (GNB)

1.7 Richardson, T. RB (CLE)

1.8 Lynch, M. RB (SEA)

1.9 Johnson, C. WR (DET)

1.1 McCoy, L. RB (PHI)

1.11 Spiller, C. RB (BUF)

1.12 Brees, D. QB (NOR)

 

Round 2

 

2.1 Morris, A. RB (WAS)

2.2 Manning, P. QB (DEN)

2.3 Forte, M. RB (CHI)

2.4 Green, A. WR (CIN)

2.5 Marshall, B. WR (CHI)

2.6 Jones, J. WR (ATL)

2.7 Graham, J. TE (NOR)

2.8 Jackson, S. RB (ATL)

2.9 Bryant, D. WR (DAL)

2.1 Brady, T. QB (NWE)

2.11 Johnson, C. RB (TEN)

2.12 Thomas, D. WR (DEN)

 

Round 3

 

3.1 Jones-Drew, M. RB (JAC)

3.2 Fitzgerald, L. WR (ARI)

3.3 Gronkowski, R. TE (NWE)

3.4 Ridley, S. RB (NWE)

3.5 Jackson, V. WR (TAM)

3.6 Johnson, A. WR (HOU)

3.7 McFadden, D. RB (OAK)

3.8 Bush, R. RB (DET)

3.9 Ryan, M. QB (ATL)

3.1 White, R. WR (ATL)

3.11 Cobb, R. WR (GNB)

3.12 Cruz, V. WR (NYG)

 

Round 4

 

4.1 Harvin, P. WR (SEA)

4.2 Lacy, E. RB (GNB)

4.3 Luck, A. QB (IND)

4.4 Miller, L. RB (MIA)

4.5 Wilson, D. RB (NYG)

4.6 Crabtree, M. WR (SFO)

4.7 Gore, F. RB (SFO)

4.8 Murray, D. RB (DAL)

4.9 Bowe, D. WR (KAN)

4.1 Welker, W. WR (DEN)

4.11 Newton, C. QB (CAR)

4.12 Bell, L. RB (PIT)

[Gopher]

I don't know... If I'm picking 5th, I have a hard time pulling the trigger on Charles. Maybe it's just me, but I need more of a sure thing picking that early. Last season was his best, and he barely cracked the top ten as a RB... And that was only because he had a couple of huge games. I know his projections for this year are high, but I'm not buying into him any earlier than late first round. Even then, I'm nervous with him as my top pick.

[keggerz]

I don't know... If I'm picking 5th, I have a hard time pulling the trigger on Charles. Maybe it's just me, but I need more of a sure thing picking that early. Last season was his best, and he barely cracked the top ten as a RB... And that was only because he had a couple of huge games. I know his projections for this year are high, but I'm not buying into him any earlier than late first round. Even then, I'm nervous with him as my top pick.

 

I love Charles this year (not as much in non-ppr)...this is what I included when I posted an article to my blog about Alex Smith:

 

"Over the last four seasons Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have completed 22.8 percent of their passes (78.5/season) to running backs. From 2001-2004 — when the Eagles made it to four consecutive conference championships and one Super Bowl — Reid’s quarterbacks completed 31.6 percent of their passes (97.5/season) to running backs. Smith completed 7.6 percent of his passes to running backs in 2011 (34 total). In 2012 he completed 15.9 percent to running backs (23 total in his first 8 games started). That extrapolates to 46/season.

Full Impact — Fantasy: This is absolutely great news for Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues. Charles probably tops out carries wise at 250-275 but look for him to be in the neighborhood of 70 receptions. At this point Charles is in my top 3 at RB and I am giving strong consideration to moving him to number one overall. Dexter McCluster could also have sneaky value with Reid at the helm."

Edited May 10, 2013 by keggerz

[Gopher]

I love Charles this year (not as much in non-ppr)...this is what I included when I posted an article to my blog about Alex Smith:

 

"Over the last four seasons Andy Reid’s quarterbacks have completed 22.8 percent of their passes (78.5/season) to running backs. From 2001-2004 — when the Eagles made it to four consecutive conference championships and one Super Bowl — Reid’s quarterbacks completed 31.6 percent of their passes (97.5/season) to running backs. Smith completed 7.6 percent of his passes to running backs in 2011 (34 total). In 2012 he completed 15.9 percent to running backs (23 total in his first 8 games started). That extrapolates to 46/season.

Full Impact — Fantasy: This is absolutely great news for Jamaal Charles, especially in PPR leagues. Charles probably tops out carries wise at 250-275 but look for him to be in the neighborhood of 70 receptions. At this point Charles is in my top 3 at RB and I am giving strong consideration to moving him to number one overall. Dexter McCluster could also have sneaky value with Reid at the helm."

 

Yeah, I'm still skeptical. Maybe more because I wonder about his durability than anything else, though. You make some great points.

[euphy]

I have the second pick in a PPR league... and I am taking Doug Martin. He's a 3 down back who gets goal line carries.

[NAUgrad]

I was surprised to see P. Manning go so much higher than Tom Brady in the 2nd. I think Denver will work to run the ball more this season. Manning had an amazing year last year and I'm not sure he's going to be able to duplicate it this season. We will see. I expect a slight dip in TD's and potentially yards as well. Especially if the running game is working.

Edited May 20, 2013 by NAUgrad

[darin3]

I was surprised to see P. Manning go so much higher than Tom Brady in the 2nd. I think Denver will work to run the ball more this season. Manning had an amazing year last year and I'm not sure he's going to be able to duplicate it this season. We will see. I expect a slight dip in TD's and potentially yards as well. Especially if the running game is working.

 

 

DEN was #9 in rushing attempts in 2012. Sure, because they had a more prolific offense they were able to run more plays, and thus, more run plays.... but still...

 

They added a big-time weapon in Wes Welker. Thomas/Decker have another off-season under their belt with Manning.

 

Is the addition of Montee Ball *really* going to change the run game?

 

I'd expect Manning's numbers to remain about the same - maybe a little bit of a bump with the familiarity in place as well as the extra weapon.

[irish]

I love Charles this year as well and am in a bit of a quandry. I'm in a league where we can keep 3 players for any length of time and I have Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Julio Jones, Dem. Thomas and Andre Johnson.

 

I can try to trade away the 3 that I'm not keeping but all I can get is the equivalent of 3rd round picks for them and most, if not all, of them are worth 1st and 2nd round prices.

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by irish

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Cam Newton in the 4th? After Ryan and Luck?

[Pope Flick]

Mark it: CJ Spiller at 11 is criminal. He'll be in the top tier conversation in 2014, after 2013.

 

That's what you draft for!

[Chief Dick]

Cam Newton in the 4th? After Ryan and Luck?

 

 

I agree.

[Chief Dick]

Cam Newton in the 4th? After Ryan and Luck?

 

 

I disagree.

[boltnlava]

This year will be the yardstick for the next few. Good luck to all including me...lol.

[Tripleshot]

Cam Newton played very well after his attitude adjustment early on last season. I expect a better fantasy year for him than Ryan. I know Ryan has much better weapons, but it seems he should be able to score more fantasy points with all that help, but he doesn't.

 

MoJo in the third I consider a steal. Methinks he'll get overlooked in many a draft this year.

 

Spiller in the first scares me. He's a terrific talent and therefore his ceiling is high, but I worry about his durability. I don't think he can handle the amount of touches it would take for him to be an elite back, so I consider him somewhat of a gamble taking him so high.

 

Gronk in the third is too high for my comfort zone as well. Injury prone players scare me unless I get them with later round flyers. Gronk's money when he plays. When...

[Thews40]

Kinda surprised Aaron Hernandez didn't go. With Welker out of the mix, it should increase the big TE's... if they can stay healthy.

[osu1322]

The number 6 slot took Rogers, Graham, Andre Jonhson, and Gore. This is the way all the experts were telling you to draft last year cause there were so many question marks at the QB position. This year with so many break out rookies QB is crazy deep this year and I'm talking about 12 man leagues that will have Eli Manning, Romo and Big Ben as their backups.... All of which are serviceable QBs but didn't have an explosive year last year.

 

Pick 9 went WR, WR, QB, RB and his starting RB is Miller, L. RB (MIA)...I understand he has the top couple WR but I think he lost out on getting a quality RB like McCoy, Spiller, and Morris.

 

It's drafts like this that make believe RB, RB is the way to go

[NAUgrad]

 

DEN was #9 in rushing attempts in 2012. Sure, because they had a more prolific offense they were able to run more plays, and thus, more run plays.... but still...

 

They added a big-time weapon in Wes Welker. Thomas/Decker have another off-season under their belt with Manning.

 

Is the addition of Montee Ball *really* going to change the run game?

 

I'd expect Manning's numbers to remain about the same - maybe a little bit of a bump with the familiarity in place as well as the extra weapon.

 

 

Great point. Didn't know they were #9 in rushing attempts. I do expect a little bit of a bump up in overall rushing yardage and TD's as one of Denver's issues last year was inside the red zone and goal line rushing TD's. I think they can improve on this quite a bit which will lower Manning's total TD's. Perhaps his yardage stays about the same, but if the running game is working then his yardage may dip a little as well.

 

I see your point and you could be right. I just think most of the off season moves were done to help the run game. I know Welker will help the pass game, but I think he actually helps bump the run game up more. 3 WR's constantly on the field means there are fewer options to stop the run.

[BA Baracus]

When I look at the first two rounds of a draft, my main goal is not to be the guy with the player that is most likely to be a bust by year end. To me, Spiller is that player. He is small, has injury history, and plays on a bad team. I can't have that many strikes against my first round pick.

[MTSuper7]

 

DEN was #9 in rushing attempts in 2012. Sure, because they had a more prolific offense they were able to run more plays, and thus, more run plays.... but still...

 

They added a big-time weapon in Wes Welker. Thomas/Decker have another off-season under their belt with Manning.

 

Is the addition of Montee Ball *really* going to change the run game?

 

I'd expect Manning's numbers to remain about the same - maybe a little bit of a bump with the familiarity in place as well as the extra weapon.

 

 

Speaking of Montee Ball, since he didn't go in the first four rounds, I'd say he is a bargain wherever he did end up going. Maybe I'm wrong, but the kid looks like he might be leaned on quite a bit. Of course, a lot depends on Moreno's health (which looks like poo poo right now). Still, locking in on the primary RB for Denver would be worth better than a 5th rounder I'd guess. So perhaps we just don't know enough about that backfield to say that Ball will be that guy?

[DMD]

Ball went 5.06 in that mock. I would guess he won't be that low in many if any mocks. He has a ton of upside in DEN, particularly when DEN releases McGahee (who hasn't even shown for OTAs) as expected.