BeachBum Posted August 26, 2005 Share Posted August 26, 2005 (edited) I just finished a draft, and did the same, only from the 5 spot. These were very experienced drafters (well, very experienced in life, not sure about football acumen! The Huddle Old Timers league ) I think it went OK, but guess we'll see. 1.05 Manning 2.08 Tiki Barber (McAlister went pick ahead. With points for receptions, Barber was probably the better pick anyway. 3.05 Westbrook 4.08 Hines Ward (again PPR makes him look better) 5.05 Jason Witten, Dal TE (TE mandantory plus extra yardage points for TEs made it seem prudent to lock up a top 5 TE, before worrying about more WRs) 6.08 Duce Staley (hoping for a early season recovery, in case 1st 2 RBs suffer) 7.05 Eddie Kennison 8.08 New England Defense (early, but now have a top 2 QB, and top 5 at least TE and DEF) 9.05 Keyshawn Johnson Later added S. Moss and Toomer at WR, finished with C. Taylor, Frank Gore, and Mike Cloud for some prayer backup for RBs. Oh, and David Carr as bu QB, just in case Manning just doesn't have it this year! For comparison, LT team (1st pick) has A. Green, Javon Walker, Boldin, and Hasselbeck, Eric Johnson at TE; Culpepper team has L. Jordan, Bettis (!), Chad Johnson, (his 2nd pick), Colbert, and Shockey; Holmes team with S. Jackson and Marvin Harrison has Griese at QB; S. Alexander with CuMart, Joe Horn, Chambers, Trent Green, Doug Jolley at TE; Gonzalez is with Brady, Portis and McAlister, D. Branch, Reg Williams. All in all, my squad looks competitive with these, especially if my RBs get/stay well. Ah, but don't we all say that! Edited August 26, 2005 by BeachBum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
podunker Posted August 27, 2005 Author Share Posted August 27, 2005 1.05 Manning2.08 Tiki Barber (McAlister went pick ahead. With points for receptions, Barber was probably the better pick anyway. 3.05 Westbrook 4.08 Hines Ward (again PPR makes him look better) 5.05 Jason Witten, Dal TE (TE mandantory plus extra yardage points for TEs made it seem prudent to lock up a top 5 TE, before worrying about more WRs) 6.08 Duce Staley (hoping for a early season recovery, in case 1st 2 RBs suffer) 7.05 Eddie Kennison 8.08 New England Defense (early, but now have a top 2 QB, and top 5 at least TE and DEF) 9.05 Keyshawn Johnson Later added S. Moss and Toomer at WR, finished with C. Taylor, Frank Gore, and Mike Cloud for some prayer backup for RBs. Oh, and David Carr as bu QB, just in case Manning just doesn't have it this year! Wow, that looks like a great team to me. Especially in pts per reception. I would take that team right now in any ppr league I play in. Westbrook at 3.05 was a steal. Staley will be back, and Kennison and Key are always under rated. Moats would have been good backup for Westbrook. I think someone mentioned this earlier in this post, but it can't be said enough. Manning plays 16 games a year, he never gets hurt. That's proven year in and year out. Many of the top RB's don't play a full 16 games. I would be interested in knowing how many of the top 5 RB's in one year that played 16 games, come back following year and play 16 games. Maybe its higher than I think. Food for thought! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justin Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 I'll be thinking a lot about this over the next few days. I have the #3 in a 12 team league that doesn't really consist of any newbies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 last year Manning had the best scheduling(defensively) of any QB in the league. we all know he is a great QB without any help. what I am basically saying is he will not come close to last years stats and I am looking forward to seeing someone take him early in the draft and sliding all my picks up 1 spot. 950202[/snapback] This isn't exactly what I was thinking but since it's along the same lines I thought I'd credit Doc for at least being the only other person in this thread to bring this up. What seems to be taken for granted in every analysis of "Draft Manning Early" strategies is the idea that Manning will reproduce last year's numbers and blow away the entire QB field again. He's only been the #1 QB in FF once, last year. If he comes back down to earth and back to the pack only slightly then you can get much better value out of your QB between rounds 5 & 7 and in doing this get much better starters at RB, WR and TE. I am just as intrigued by the "Draft Manning Early" phenomenon. So much so, in fact, I will be watching intently to see who takes him and how high he is taken in my local redraft. What I know for sure is that he will be gone before I pick at 10 and it will make that pick that much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 I just finished a draft, and did the same, only from the 5 spot. These were very experienced drafters (well, very experienced in life, not sure about football acumen! The Huddle Old Timers league ) I think it went OK, but guess we'll see. 2.08 Tiki Barber (McAlister went pick ahead. With points for receptions, Barber was probably the better pick anyway. 950287[/snapback] How did Deuce last until 2.07 in an experienced drafters league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 How did Deuce last until 2.07 in an experienced drafters league? 951267[/snapback] Gotta be a 10 team. Manning avereraged nearly 8 points a game above his previous career avg last year in our league's scoring system. What makes him such a strong pick has always been he gets sacked once a game and doesn't get hurt. I'm picking 3rd and have been back and forth on this: put Manning with a backfield of say, CMart+S Jackson? Or grab SAlex/Edge and put them with CMart, then Cjohnson/JWalker in the 3rd and grab Green or Bulger in the 4th. Tough stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianfl Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 I used the stategy in one league (12 teams) picking 4th. After I took Manning, I was able to come back with A.Green/T.Bell and picked up Anderson later. Picked S. Smith in the 4th. Also got D. Foster, A.Lelie, Burress, C.Rogers, M.Bennett, Heap. I think I have enough talent surrounding Manning to make a run. That is all you can really ask for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Pimp Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 The more people show their lineups after taking Manning anywhere from 2-4, the better it is starting to look. I think if you take him early, you can definitely still put together a pretty good lineup. That said, I think I have decided against taking Manning at the 2 spot (I already get to keep Kevin Jones as my 4th round) simply because he won't put up the season he did last year and the difference between him in the 1st and Green/Bulger in the 4th or 5th isn't worth it. Then again was last season a fluke, or a sign of things to come? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Skins Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 Overall, this thread was extremely helpful - I got the 6th pick in my local in a few hours, and although I'm not going Manning, the post as a whole just solidified various thoughts of mine. I'm going RB-WR-RB-QB for a potential and targeted big four of: Dom Davis (unless Edge falls, which he might), Chad Johnson, JJ Arrington, Bulger. Thanks all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Skins Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 Overall, this thread was extremely helpful - I got the 6th pick in my local in a few hours, and although I'm not going Manning, the post as a whole just solidified various thoughts of mine. I'm going RB-WR-RB-QB for a potential and targeted big four of: Dom Davis (unless Edge falls, which he might), Chad Johnson, JJ Arrington, Bulger. Thanks all. 951494[/snapback] Clarification - make that, I'm not going Manning, b/c I doubt he'll fall to me at 6. But if he does, I will be very intrigued after all this, and may just give it a shot... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeachBum Posted August 28, 2005 Share Posted August 28, 2005 How did Deuce last until 2.07 in an experienced drafters league? 951267[/snapback] Sorry, been in too many drafts lately. The McAlister thing was in another league, where I took Dillon after Deuce. In this draft it was Portis who had 'fallen' to second round, and I was kinda glad when he went before Barber. The 1st 2 rounds: 1.01 1 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB Mon Aug 22 12:26:41 p.m. ET 2005 1.02 2 Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Mon Aug 22 12:26:41 p.m. ET 2005 1.03 3 Holmes, Priest KCC RB Mon Aug 22 12:36:33 p.m. ET 2005 1.04 4 James, Edgerrin IND RB Mon Aug 22 12:36:33 p.m. ET 2005 1.05 5 Manning, Peyton IND QB Mon Aug 22 12:36:33 p.m. ET 2005 1.06 6 Davis, Domanick HOU RB Mon Aug 22 12:36:33 p.m. ET 2005 1.07 7 McAllister, Deuce NOS RB Mon Aug 22 6:48:12 p.m. ET 2005 1.08 8 McGahee, Willis BUF RB Mon Aug 22 6:54:01 p.m. ET 2005 1.09 9 Dillon, Corey NEP RB Mon Aug 22 6:54:01 p.m. ET 2005 1.10 10 Moss, Randy OAK WR Mon Aug 22 7:12:51 p.m. ET 2005 1.11 11 Jones, Kevin DET RB Mon Aug 22 7:19:24 p.m. ET 2005 1.12 12 Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB Mon Aug 22 7:19:24 p.m. ET 2005 2.01 13 Johnson, Chad CIN WR Mon Aug 22 7:21:19 p.m. ET 2005 2.02 14 Lewis, Jamal BAL RB Mon Aug 22 7:32:32 p.m. ET 2005 2.03 15 Jones, Julius DAL RB Mon Aug 22 7:44:56 p.m. ET 2005 2.04 16 Owens, Terrell PHI WR Mon Aug 22 8:17:50 p.m. ET 2005 2.05 17 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB Mon Aug 22 8:31:40 p.m. ET 2005 2.06 18 Portis, Clinton WAS RB Mon Aug 22 8:31:40 p.m. ET 2005 2.07 19 Holt, Torry STL WR Mon Aug 22 8:33:17 p.m. ET 2005 2.08 20 Barber, Tiki NYG RB Mon Aug 22 8:33:17 p.m. ET 2005 2.09 21 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Mon Aug 22 8:33:17 p.m. ET 2005 2.10 22 Harrison, Marvin IND WR Mon Aug 22 8:41:12 p.m. ET 2005 2.11 23 Martin, Curtis NYJ RB Mon Aug 22 9:21:47 p.m. ET 2005 2.12 24 Green, Ahman GBP RB Mon Aug 22 9:23:14 p.m. ET 2005 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butkus Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 After discovering on Friday night that I would be drafting 1st in my 12-man, redraft league I executed the Peyton Manning Strategy and here are my results so those who have left to draft and are considering taking Manning can have some feel for what they might expect from the 1 slot. Keep in mind my league rewards QBs, RBs and WR/TE's the same amount for TDs (6 pts for TD less than 14 yds, 9 pts for TD 15-34 yds, 12 pts for TD longer than 34 yards - HUGE edge to QB's!!) 1.01 - Manning 2.12 - C. Martin 3.01 - S. Jackson 4.12 - D. Foster 5.01 - A Boldin 6.12 - L. Coles 7.01 - I. Bruce 8.12 - E. Moulds 9.01 - M. Anderson 10.12 - E. Shelton etc, etc So you can see that tasking Manning kind of pigeonholes you into getting #14-20 RB's and WR's and you will need to get a bit lucky and have some guys emerge. I would have never selected Manning in ANY of my other leagues, but with the scoring in this league rewarding 12 points for a 35 yd TD pass (vs. the same 12 points for a 35 yrd TD reception or run), I just couldn't pass on Manning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcoltfan Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 I see #18 as League MVP again. The pass defenses he faced last year were MUCH better than the ones he gets to face this year. Will he throw 49 TD's? Probably not. Is he a lock for 35+? YES. Most people are guessing in the 38-42 range. I think the schedule makers screwed the colts last year and paid them back this year. Things really fall nicely. Just check it out. After a brutal road win AT Baltimore things get easier. Boller will not have enough to keep up with #18. Jamal should have a great game. Colts can score more and FASTER. No homerism here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scourge Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 I ended up with Manning at 1.05 in a 10 team league. Here was my team afterwards. 1.05 Manning 2.06 Rudi 3.05 C-Mart 4.06 R. Wayne 5.05 Steve Smith 6.06 Ronnie Brown 7.05 Mike Anderson 8.06 Randy McMichael 9.05 Lee Evans I also got good value down the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhoops Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 I ended up with Manning at 1.05 in a 10 team league. Here was my team afterwards. 1.05 Manning 2.06 Rudi 3.05 C-Mart 4.06 R. Wayne 5.05 Steve Smith 6.06 Ronnie Brown 7.05 Mike Anderson 8.06 Randy McMichael 9.05 Lee Evans I also got good value down the line. 954337[/snapback] same here Scourge, we have similar teams, although WR went quick for some reason. My Manning draft, long time local, 10 team serpentine, redraft, standard scoring, passing TD's are 4 pnts. Start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, D (_) indicates draft round, had 5th pick QB: Manning (1), Warner (12) RB: Portis (2), A.Green (3), C.Martin (4), Benson (13), Suggs (15) WR: S.Smith (5), Driver (6), TJ Housh (7), T.Williamson (10), McCardell (16) TE: McMichael (7), B.Watson (14) K:Akers (11) D: NE (8), Colts (17) really suprised that Martin dropped that far almost took him where I took Green, had to take him over D.Bennett, Ward. Burelson went just ahead of me so I took Smith. Lelie went before me so I took Driver. If Benson can step into the starting role and Suggs gets healthy my RB are sweet. I may need to trade some for a WR upgrade. WR went fast, some have 6 on their team. I figured a 10 team league was worth a shot. After LT and Alexander it went Holmes, DDavis, Manning, McGahee, Edge, McAllister, J.Lewis, JJones, Dillon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted August 29, 2005 Share Posted August 29, 2005 What seems to be taken for granted in every analysis of "Draft Manning Early" strategies is the idea that Manning will reproduce last year's numbers and blow away the entire QB field again. He's only been the #1 QB in FF once, last year. If he comes back down to earth and back to the pack only slightly then you can get much better value out of your QB between rounds 5 & 7 and in doing this get much better starters at RB, WR and TE. 951247[/snapback] Finally I don't believe the hype. Manning is the best starting QB in the game right now. Manning is money in the bank. The thing is throw out last year and that money totaled 27.8. Yep going into last season Manning averaged 27.8 TDs a season with his career high being 33 passing TDs 5 seasons ago. 2001 through 2003 Manning threw for 26, 27 and 29 TDs. Then last year he threw for 20 more TD passes than the year before. 48 or more passing TD seasons come along every 20 years. You should have told me to take him with the 1st pick last year not this year. Since 1983, the QB leading the NFL in TD passes has thrown, on average 34.86 TDs. In the previous 21 years the NFL leader in TD passes has thrown for 40 or more TDs 3 times. Marino in '84 (48), Marnio in '86 (44) and Warner in '99 (41). Only one QB has done it twice and none have done it in back-to-back years. Manning sure could be the first in '05 but I'm not betting MY 1st round pick on it happening. Not when to just throw for 40 would be 5 more TD passes than the NFL leader has averaged over the last 22 years. 917673[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justin Posted August 31, 2005 Share Posted August 31, 2005 bump - my draft is today and I'm still deciding between Peyton & Edge at the #3 overall (standard scoring league - passing TD's=4, others=6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted August 31, 2005 Share Posted August 31, 2005 bump - my draft is today and I'm still deciding between Peyton & Edge at the #3 overall (standard scoring league - passing TD's=4, others=6) 958946[/snapback] Take Manning. RB's are deep this year. Edge has peak and valley years even when he's healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJOLIRPH Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 I went same way in a new redraft league 10 teams 1st = Manning 2nd = Lewis 3rd= K Jones 4th= Walker 5th = Burlson 6th= S Jackson From the 3rd pick slot, and BTW 13rds only max of 3 RB and 3WR per team or I could have got Arrington in the 8th. These guys have no idea of drafting value. They're not newbies leagues been around for 8+yrs. Last years winner went CPep thenn Bell at #2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted September 1, 2005 Share Posted September 1, 2005 I took Foster, L. Coles, and Heap with my next three picks and picked up Staley in the ninth. 948307[/snapback] I'd have trouble sleeping at night with those guys... I see a 7th place finish in your immediate future... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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