Savage Beatings Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 12 Team Re-draft (except for 1 player keeper). This coming season I can keep 1 player currently on my roster from last year as long as he was drafted later than rounds 1-4. I can only keep this 1 player for 1 year. And keeping him will cost me my 4th round pick this coming season. I have two strong candidates to choose from. Drew Brees Marques Colston Thos are my best guys that were drafted later than round 4 last year. I could also choose Ladell Betts, but I think both Brees and Colston will be more valuable than Betts. Tough call though... which one would you keep? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Do you have to keep a player? I'm not sure Iwould want to keep either for a 4th rounder. You should be able to get either, or comparable players at the 4th or even later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 11, 2007 Author Share Posted March 11, 2007 Do you have to keep a player? I'm not sure Iwould want to keep either for a 4th rounder. You should be able to get either, or comparable players at the 4th or even later. No I do not need to keep anyone. I'm not sure I agree with you though. I think both of those players will be potentially 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounders in this league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 IMO then, Colston of the two. QBs of similar caliber can definitely be had much later in most leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 IMO then, Colston of the two. QBs of similar caliber can definitely be had much later in most leagues. I have to agree with the logic here but I rarely draft a QB before th 5th rounds so I don't value them as much as other positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Either one of those guys figures to go in the 4th round or earlier, so trading a 4th round pick for either gives you at least equivalent value. As to which one to keep, I'd let the scoring system decide for me. If QBs get 6 pts/all TDs, I'd be sorely tempted to keep Brees. In a 4 pt/passing TD league, QBs are devalued somewhat, so I'd probably keep Colston. What are the chances of trading one for a draft pick & then keeping the other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Either one of those guys figures to go in the 4th round or earlier, so trading a 4th round pick for either gives you at least equivalent value. As to which one to keep, I'd let the scoring system decide for me. If QBs get 6 pts/all TDs, I'd be sorely tempted to keep Brees. In a 4 pt/passing TD league, QBs are devalued somewhat, so I'd probably keep Colston. What are the chances of trading one for a draft pick & then keeping the other? what do you think adding e johnson to the team is going to do to colstons #'s ? if healthy they now have a liget TE and with horn gone coston should be used more as a WR give up receptions (ppr leagues ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 11, 2007 Author Share Posted March 11, 2007 What are the chances of trading one for a draft pick & then keeping the other? Unfortunately zero chance of trading. Either you keep one of your guys or you don't. No other options. Couple of other points. This is not PPR league. And QB's only get 4 points per TD, but the really good QB's can still be the highest scorers... the question remains however, will Brees be as good this coming season as he was this last season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuke'em ttg Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 i thought Brees was the right answer........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted March 11, 2007 Share Posted March 11, 2007 Colston. Much higher value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I'd go Colston. Doubt Brees will have the same numbers but they should be good. And QBs can be had later in the draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Brees. He has become one of the best fantasy QB's. You can easily draft a WR comparable to Colston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Unfortunately zero chance of trading. Either you keep one of your guys or you don't. No other options. Couple of other points. This is not PPR league. And QB's only get 4 points per TD, but the really good QB's can still be the highest scorers... the question remains however, will Brees be as good this coming season as he was this last season? Brees ought to have a fine year, but at 4 pts/passing TD, how much separation is there between the #3 & the #10 QB? A top WR in a pass happy O is a good commodity for a 4th round pick, but WRs are devalued also with no ppr. That said, I'd say flip a coin with a lean to Colston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 That said, I'd say flip a coin with a lean to Colston. Yep, that's about where I'm at with it as well. Thanks for the input guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 If you had to guess, what does it seem like everyone else is doing? If WRs seem to be the flavor of everyone's keeper, I'd do the same and keep Colston given the premium on WRs, more bang for your buck so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Here is how the two compared to others at their position last season: QB's scored Manning - 441 Brees - 376 <----- Brady - 338 Palmer - 317 Bulger - 314 Kitna - 312 Vick - 304 Grossman - 290 Favre - 277 Rivers - 270 WR's scored Harrison - 224 Wayne - 221 Owens - 203 CJohnson - 187 Evans - 182 Walker - 181 Driver - 178 Holt - 178 Smith - 177 Burress - 176 RWilliams - 169 Colston - 166 <----- DJackson - 158 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 How many of those are keepable however? Maybe trim the list to show who could be kept, thus proving the bargain of keeping one or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) Brees ought to have a fine year, but at 4 pts/passing TD, how much separation is there between the #3 & the #10 QB? A top WR in a pass happy O is a good commodity for a 4th round pick, but WRs are devalued also with no ppr. Ask and you shall receive. Taking a 3-year average of fantasy points, using a generic system of 4-pt per pass TD, 6 pt all others and, 1 per 25 passing yards and 1 per 10 rush/rec. the #3 QB had a value of 51, the #10 QB a value of 7. (value is taking FF Pts scored and subtracting the lowest scoring starter from that total, in this case the #12 QB, the #36 WR, assuming 3 WRs start) In comparison, the #14 WR had a value of 50. So, if you perceive Colston to be a top 14 WR, based on historical stats, you should likely keep him over Brees. If you have him below the top 14, then it comes down to where you see Brees performing this season. (Note that based on the stats pulled from FLM and the generic scoring system I used, Manning scored 322 points, Brees 279, Harrison 201 and Colston 145, so obviously some difference in scoring system need to be considered) Edited March 12, 2007 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I'd keep Colston. A good QB can be found in the 6th and 7th rounds of a draft. Before his injury Colston was on target to be a top 5 WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Ask and you shall receive. Taking a 3-year average of fantasy points, using a generic system of 4-pt per pass TD, 6 pt all others and, 1 per 25 passing yards and 1 per 10 rush/rec. the #3 QB had a value of 51, the #10 QB a value of 7. (value is taking FF Pts scored and subtracting the lowest scoring starter from that total, in this case the #12 QB, the #36 WR, assuming 3 WRs start) In comparison, the #14 WR had a value of 50. So, if you perceive Colston to be a top 14 WR, based on historical stats, you should likely keep him over Brees. If you have him below the top 14, then it comes down to where you see Brees performing this season. (Note that based on the stats pulled from FLM and the generic scoring system I used, Manning scored 322 points, Brees 279, Harrison 201 and Colston 145, so obviously some difference in scoring system need to be considered) Dude... thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Dude... thanks! Have all this stuff pulled for an article I want to work on..... not that i have anywhere for it to go or know exactly what direction I want to go, but, I should be able to clearly show the affect of PPR on value across positions using the 3-year stats and the affect of going from 4 pt to 6 pt passing TDs on the overall value of QBs. (And also modifying the lineup requirements within a scoring system) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I'd keep Colston. A good QB can be found in the 6th and 7th rounds of a draft. Before his injury Colston was on target to be a top 5 WR. Agreed. Colston is my pick here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Seriously....name another QB that you can get that you would be comfortable drafting. Now name any # of WR's you could take. If you are very lucky you maybe could get Bulger, but even then I'm not comfortable. The bottom line is, a solid receiver is a lot easier to draft than a solid QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AquaticRay Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 I take Brees. Good WRs are more plentiful than top 3 QBS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 I take Brees. Good WRs are more plentiful than top 3 QBS I guess if you consider Brees a top 3 QB then. But, even so, looking strictly at "value" in a standard scoring system based on the last 3 years of stats, the #3 QB is equivalent to the #14WR. Guess if you are confident that Brees is the #3 (or better) QB and that Colston is below the top 14 in WRs, you may have a good point, otherwise, it is still a coin flip, and I lean Colston as good QBs generally can still be had in the 7th-8th round or later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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