Marauders11 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent in November as employers cut the smallest number of jobs since the recession began. Anyone else think that maybe this is because everyone is already laid off, and the businesses that are struggling are already operating with bare bones staffing. 15 million out of work, who's left to get cut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 When I first saw this report I really though it was good news and the first real sign that the economy might be turning around. I then realized this was probably due to nothing more than seasonal hiring by retail stores and more than likely come January any gains that have been made will be lost and it would not be surprising if additional jobs are lost as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimm74 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 When I first saw this report I really though it was good news and the first real sign that the economy might be turning around. I then realized this was probably due to nothing more than seasonal hiring by retail stores and more than likely come January any gains that have been made will be lost and it would not be surprising if additional jobs are lost as well. I am 95% sure that number was the seasonal adjusted and revising up the last two numbers was nice. Do not get me wrong 10% unemployment holy stuff....But the trajectory is improving...and in these times we all better find little victories to make us happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Unemployment fell by 0.2% only because the civilian labor force shrunk in November by 98,000 people. This means more people are becoming discouraged and giving up looking for jobs. When you combine both short and long-term discouraged workers who aren't included in the labor force along with those who are underemployed with part-time jobs, real unemployment in the U.S. today is nearly 22%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duchess Jack Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 22% sounds silly. That is practically 1 in 4 people and I don't know a single person who is not working. Can anybody else on this board say that one in every four of their friends or family members is not working? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 22% sounds silly. That is practically 1 in 4 people and I don't know a single person who is not working. Can anybody else on this board say that one in every four of their friends or family members is not working? That includes underemployed too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marauders11 Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 22% sounds silly. That is practically 1 in 4 people and I don't know a single person who is not working. Can anybody else on this board say that one in every four of their friends or family members is not working? well up until about 3 weeks ago I'd be right with you. In the past 3 weeks I lost my job, and 2 of my closest friends also got news that they were being laid off- 1 right away and 1 starting January 1st. Also my sister-in-law has been out of work for almost a year, and my wife's Aunt lost her's about 6 months ago. My wife also talks to all of the Mom's at the local elementary school when she picks our girls up in the afternoon, and every week there is at least one new lay off story- so many husband's out of work it's not funny. It seems to be getting worse not better at all. By the way this is the first time in my adult life that I've ever been out of work (since I was 16), and the first time I was ever dismissed from a job for any reason. I'll tell you what it's pretty darned scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duchess Jack Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 wow. I am sorry about that. Its odd how people can be so insolated from things while others are right in the thick of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 The November report was an "outlier" and "almost looked fabricated," according to Shedlock, an investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management Looking beyond the November jobs data, Shedlock says the odds of the unemployment rate coming down anytime soon are remote. Even based on generous assumptions of 150,000 new jobs per month, no double-dip recession and a declining participation rate as Baby Boomers retire, "the best I can do is suggest the unemployment rate will be over 10% all the way through 2015 and never dip below 8% all the way out through the end of 2020," Mish says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 22% sounds silly. That is practically 1 in 4 people and I don't know a single person who is not working. Can anybody else on this board say that one in every four of their friends or family members is not working? Most of them have gone back to Mexico and Guatemala, I'm being serious. Check with any hispanic friends you have that were in the construction industry, you'll quickly find that these numbers could well be a reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Most of them have gone back to Mexico and Guatemala, I'm being serious. Check with any hispanic friends you have that were in the construction industry, you'll quickly find that these numbers could well be a reality. +1 they are actually leaving the country due to not finding any work or money after the unemployment check runs out.... they are actually buying certain items here and going back home... besides that, there are alot of people who are not unemployed and have taken a step down into retail sales and jobs similar to that... so while people may be working, they may no longer be able to afford the house they live in because they likely bought it with the income they made when working a real job.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Let me clarify a few points: 1) The unemployment numbers are seasonally adjusted, so Christmas doesn't really have anything to do with these current numbers. 2) The BLS estimate for "U-6 unemployment" (which includes discouraged workers and other under-employed workers) is 17.2% not 22%. 3) People leaving the country due to an inability to find work would cause the unemployment numbers to go down, not up. 4) While I agree that the November numbers are likely an aberation and that unemployment rates are going to continue to go up over the next few months, I think the the guy that dmarc quoted is completely talking out of his ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Let me clarify a few points: 1) The unemployment numbers are seasonally adjusted, so Christmas doesn't really have anything to do with these current numbers. 2) The BLS estimate for "U-6 unemployment" (which includes discouraged workers and other under-employed workers) is 17.2% not 22%. 3) People leaving the country due to an inability to find work would cause the unemployment numbers to go down, not up. 4) While I agree that the November numbers are likely an aberation and that unemployment rates are going to continue to go up over the next few months, I think the the guy that dmarc quoted is completely talking out of his ass. Just in response to #3, that is if it could be documented that they had left, correct? For instance, we recently had to dissolve one of our crews, comprised mainly of Mexicans and Ecuadorians, about a month ago. These people would be counted in the unemployment stats, but many have returned homw and I seriously doubt that they reported they were moving back to their countyr of origin, much that I doubt that they reported they had arrived from their country of origin (just so you know, yes we do make all of our employees supply documents proving they are here legally, but I am doubting that 100% of them were here legally). So these people would be counted in the quarterly unemployment, but in fact are not in the country and have no intention of going back to work here in the US. Also, i guess in the bigger picture, what I am suggesting is that we do not necessarilly know that one and four are unemployed because it is largely in a group that we do not traditionally associate with. Thus, the reality of the unemployment level in this country may be quite a bit higher than the average middle class American realizes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 well up until about 3 weeks ago I'd be right with you. In the past 3 weeks I lost my job, and 2 of my closest friends also got news that they were being laid off- 1 right away and 1 starting January 1st. Also my sister-in-law has been out of work for almost a year, and my wife's Aunt lost her's about 6 months ago. My wife also talks to all of the Mom's at the local elementary school when she picks our girls up in the afternoon, and every week there is at least one new lay off story- so many husband's out of work it's not funny. It seems to be getting worse not better at all. By the way this is the first time in my adult life that I've ever been out of work (since I was 16), and the first time I was ever dismissed from a job for any reason. I'll tell you what it's pretty darned scary. Sorry bro. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I just saved or created 2.3 Million jobs. You're welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I just saved or created 2.3 Million jobs. You're welcome. Trust me...I've had several dozen of Savage's jobs. They are spectacular....and real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 I just saved or created 2.3 Million jobs. You're welcome. By wearing a condom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Trust me...I've had several dozen of Savage's jobs. They are spectacular....and real. Is it true he only offers two kinds of jobs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Just in response to #3, that is if it could be documented that they had left, correct? For instance, we recently had to dissolve one of our crews, comprised mainly of Mexicans and Ecuadorians, about a month ago. These people would be counted in the unemployment stats, but many have returned homw and I seriously doubt that they reported they were moving back to their countyr of origin, much that I doubt that they reported they had arrived from their country of origin (just so you know, yes we do make all of our employees supply documents proving they are here legally, but I am doubting that 100% of them were here legally). So these people would be counted in the quarterly unemployment, but in fact are not in the country and have no intention of going back to work here in the US. no, they wouldn't be included the BLS estimates the unemployment rate by conducting phone surveys of workers; if you aren't in the country, you obviously are not going to be participating in the survey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/busines...eonM7vHZCklg3aP thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 JOHN CRUDELE = ladysparrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Is it true he only offers two kinds of jobs? Perhaps. The only complaint about all of the jobs that I saved or created is that they don't last very long... oh and most Americans don't want them for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Trust me...I've had several dozen of Savage's jobs. They are spectacular....and real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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