Martz Math

[fpuma]

The idea that Mike Martz is going to have an immediate and monstrous impact on the Bears’ passing game isn’t just some random theory. It’s virtual fact.

 

Martz has previously taken over the offense of three NFL teams. Here are the results in the year before Martz vs. his first year with each franchise.

 

1. ST. LOUIS RAMS

1998 (BEFORE MARTZ)

- 22nd in passing offense at 192.9 yards per game.

- 5th in pass attempts with 556

- 28th in passing touchdowns with 12

 

1999 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)

- 1st in passing offense at 272.1 yards per game

- 19th in pass attempts at with 530

- 1st in passing touchdowns with 42

 

In 1999, Kurt Warner was the No. 1 fantasy QB. Marshall Faulk was the No. 2 fantasy RB. Isaac Bruce was the No. 6 WR and Az-Zahir Hakim was the No. 30 WR. A quote from Rams head coach Dick Vermeil: "I can't think, in my history of coaching, of any assistant who came into an NFL franchise and made the immediate impact that Mike Martz did."

 

2. DETROIT LIONS

2005 (BEFORE MARTZ)

- 26th in passing offense at 178.0 yards per game

- 14th in pass attempts with 520

- 26th in passing touchdowns with 15

 

2006 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)

- 7th in passing offense at 238.8 yards per game

- 2nd in pass attempts with 596

- 13th in passing touchdowns with 21

 

Jon Kitna threw for a career-high 4,208 yards in 2006. … TE Marcus Pollard led the Lions in receiving in 2005 with 46 catches. In 2006, he caught 12 passes all season. … Roy Williams scored 116.7 fantasy points in 2005. In 2006, he scored 173.0. … Kevin Jones caught 20 passes out of the backfield in 2005. In 2006, he caught 61 passes.

 

 

3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2007 (BEFORE MARTZ)

- 32nd in passing offense at 145.0 yards per game

- 22nd in pass attempts with 513

- 26th in passing touchdowns with 15

 

2008 (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)

- 13th in passing offense at 211.2 yards per game

- 18th in pass attempts with 509

- 13th in passing touchdowns with 21

 

Alex Smith was projected as a breakout candidate thanks to Martz in 2008, but missed the entire season with a shoulder injury. Martz managed to make the Niners’ passing game mediocre with J.T. O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill. … Vernon Davis caught 31 passes for 358 yards with two touchdowns under Martz in 2008. Last season, he caught 78 passes for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns.

 

 

4. CHICAGO BEARS

2009 (BEFORE MARTZ)

- 17th in passing offense at 217.1 yards per game

- 8th in pass attempts with 563

- 10th in passing touchdowns with 27

 

2010 CHICAGO BEARS (MARTZ’S FIRST YEAR)

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We’re not going out on a very far limb by saying that Jay Cutler is a bounce-back candidate. Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu and Johnny Knox are all value picks. Greg Olsen shouldn’t be on your radar. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are likely undervalued in PPR formats. Historical precedent with Mike Martz proves this.

 

From RotoWorld

[keggerz]

Three teams: (Stl, Det & SF) and in his first year 2 of those 3 threw the ball fewer times than they did the year prior...without Martz.

 

of the 3 teams:

2 saw their passing yards increase in the 60 yard range/game

1 saw their passing yards increase 79.20 yards/game(STL)

 

2 saw their TDs increase by 6 from 15 to 21 for both squads

1 saw thier TDs increase by 30 (STL)

 

so i guess it would be safe to guess that the Bears will probably increase their passing yards/game to approximately 277 yards/game

and TDs could end up at 33...so, 4400 passing yards and 33 TDs looks possible from Martz's track record....only problem is that would be more YPG than the Rams put up and just 9 fewer TDs...call me crazy but I don't see that type of talent on the Bears.

Edited June 9, 2010 by keggerz

[Pope Flick]

Three teams: (Stl, Det & SF) and in his first year 2 of those 3 threw the ball fewer times than they did the year prior...without Martz.

 

 

That fact really does underline the efficiency of his system: those 2 years they had fewer attempts their YPG average shot WAY WAY up, one to the tune of 60 yards per game(nearly 40% from the past year) and the other over 80. :whoa:

 

I predict a nice start to the Bears, then when the weather sets in trouble. Big time trouble.

[bushwacked]

This is exactly why I didn't understand the "Martz sucks" sentiment when it comes to fantasy football. The track record speaks for itself.

[Pope Flick]

This is exactly why I didn't understand the "Martz sucks" sentiment when it comes to fantasy football. The track record speaks for itself.

 

 

 

+1. I had Warner in 2001. EVERY TIME it was third and 1 I'd yell, "Go Deep!" and they would. He's ridiculous.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

The only thing Cutler owners should be worried about is whether he'll be available in the fantasy playoffs. The one thing those statistics don't really account for is the absolute beating that the Martz system inflicts on its QBs.

[Avernus]

The only thing Cutler owners should be worried about is whether he'll be available in the fantasy playoffs. The one thing those statistics don't really account for is the absolute beating that the Martz system inflicts on its QBs.

 

 

not to mention the Bears OL is bad...and the play in some serious elements in Chicago....

[Gonkis]

The Blackhawks lift the cup, Lebron with a chance to be a Bull... the rest of the sport watching world does NOT need a good Bears team.

[Seahawks21]

Say what you want but the guy made JT O'Sullivan a viable fantasy option at QB for half a season.

[MikesVikes]

The idea that Mike Martz is going to have an immediate and monstrous impact on the Bears’ passing game isn’t just some random theory. It’s virtual fact.

 

This is where they lost me.

[DMD]

While I would expect some rise in passing with Martz there (and no credible ground game anyway), I think the hype of Martz is getting ahead of the reality. I think the person writing that article was trying to prove a point rather than see what really happened. Martz in STL is not even worth considering since he was stocked with great players and was the head coach and played indoors in the softest division in the NFC.

 

His time in DET seemed like a slam dunk for a good offense playing indoors but that did not happen. Kitna did throw for 4208 yards and 21 TDs with 22 INT. But 592 yards and seven TDs came in the final two meaningless games. Kitna only had three other games with 2 or more TDs. He had four games with none.

 

He was also in DET in 2007 when Kitna passed for 4068 yards but only 18 TD and 26 turnovers. And that was with Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams and Shaun McDonald. There were yards and average scores. Less so if you get dinged for turnovers.

 

Comparing Martz in SF to the previous year is meaning less too since the 49ers were a joke with four different QBs starting in the year because of injuries. In 2008, Martz used O'Sullivan who had been the back up in DET and at midseason went with Shaun Hill. Isaac Bruce led all receivers with 835 yards and 7 TDs and the next best only had 546 yards and 3 scores. The 49ers only rushed in seven touchdowns all year.

 

Now Martz is in CHI back outside. His final four games this year will be NE, @MIN, NYJ and @GB. Only MIN is inside and the others could all have wind/weather. He has Cutler who is his best QB since his STL days. But the WR in CHI are nothing that special. None of them had more than 757 yards or five scores last year. Olsen (612-8 TD) had a decent year but connecting the previous Martz dots says he is dead this year (notable that Martz did nothing with Vernon Davis who became a stud after Martz was gone).

 

I do think CHI will throw more this year but they already had 555 attempts last season. How much more will they? What I see is Cutler probably breaking 4000 yards as many of his QBs do, but with probably no more htan the 27 TDs he had last year and at least that many turnovers. And Martz has not made any WR better than a WR2 since leaving STL.

 

Martz still carries the credit of STL too much in my view. That was years ago. Now he is a known factor with an offensive system that has been long ago figured out. He'll pass more, even against reason and that should help attempts some and yardage but the rest - scores, wins, etc. may not be that much better if at all.

[bpwallace49]

DMD I agree with you on the WR front, but I think Cutler (depending if he doesnt get killed) could very easily add in around 5-8 more TDs based on the receiving skills of Chester and Forte (when used right) and the relative poor rush blocking for Chicago. I think the Martz factor will drop Olsen, have a slight uptick for the Rbs and WRs, but the real beneficiary is Cutler who moves up into top 8-10 range for Qbs . . IF (and they are two big "ifs") Cutler doesnt get badly injured and he can control his turnovers.

[bushwacked]

We can't take anything from Martz in St. Louis because they were stacked ? That's fair enough.

 

We can't take anything from Martz in Detroit even with Kitna having his two highest career passing yardage in consecutive years, by a longshot compared to the rest of his career? Kitna didn't throw enough TDs; because all Jon Kitna did during his whole career before Martz got there was throw for TDs?

 

He was also in DET in 2007 when Kitna passed for 4068 yards but only 18 TD and 26 turnovers. And that was with Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams and Shaun McDonald. There were yards and average scores. Less so if you get dinged for turnovers.

 

That's a decent 2007 WR core; young stud, Roy + depth with a career journeyman in Kitna. In 2006 when Megatron wasn't there, Mike Furrey caught 98 balls, 1000+ yards, and 6 TDs; Roy Williams caught 82 1300+ yards and 7 TDs. I think those are two performances you have to consider moving forward.

 

We can't take anything away from Martz in San Fran's substantially improved passing offense from 2007-08 because in 2007 they were a joke, and in 2008 they had O'Sullivan and an aged Issac Bruce as their leaders in the passing game, but it was still underwhelming compared to teams that actually had some talent? Hmmmm.....

 

Passing attempts, passing yardage, and receptions will almost assuredly go up for Chicago next year. Cutler is the most talented QB Martz has had since St. Louis. Will Martz roll Olsen into a virtual WR instead of minimizing the TE position in the passing game? ....What about Aromashodu or Knox? What might Hester or Bennet do?

 

Will they all be insignificant?

Edited June 12, 2010 by bushwacked

[tazinib1]

Johnny Knox = PPR stud.

[piratesownninjas]

This is exactly why I didn't understand the "Martz sucks" sentiment when it comes to fantasy football. The track record speaks for itself.

I think in the fantasy world it's more geared towards Martz and his runningbacks.

[Dcat]

THe big loser in all this is Greg Olsen. TEs in a Martz offense have not been viable fantasy options.

[Bronco Billy]

Wow. A ton of naysaying and attempting to discredit Martz and his impact on offenses. It's kind of fun to watch people twist themselves in knots as they try to dismiss the production that Martz got with the Det passing game & Kitna/O'Sullivan and the group of journeymen/roster fodder that were the SF QBs.

 

It's especially amusing when they do this with his stint in STL. Who exactly was Kurt Warner when the 1999 season started? Oh, that's right, he was a no-name reserve QB who had thrown a career 11 passes (completing 4) for all of 39 yds in the NFL and had a resume that included playing in the AFL and bagging groceries to make money after getting cut by GB.

 

None of the guys listed above, included Warner, had any of the credibility of a passer as Cutler owns - with a 4526 yd season under his belt - one of 13 QBs in NFL history to have thrown for 4500 yards or more in a season. People knock Cutler for bad decisions, but always want to forget that he's still in his learning curve as a QB, and that because he has such great faith in his arm that he'll make immature mistakes of trying to fit balls in even though the situation is bad. But there is no denying the strength of his arm, or the fact that he can take a significant beating and bounce back under center. Cutler is a QB who is almost tailor made for a Martz system - to get back into the pocket quickly and go through a quick progression over 4 to 5 passing options. He's damned smart, he's big enough and strong enough to take some hits, and he can create with his feet when he has to.

 

As to CHI's WRs, if anything could be said of them last year, it was that they were so young. Hester was the veteran of the bunch getting meaningful playing time, and he's still yet to prove that he has what it takes to be a primary WR. In the meantime we saw flashes of NFL starting ability from Knox, Bennett, and even Aromashodu - none of whom have more than 2 years of NFL experience on their resumes. You don't think an extra year won't help those guys?

 

Denounce the Martz effect all you want. Go ahead - ignore what he brings to a passing offense because you can contrive all sorts of excuses. The only guy I see taking a hit on the CHI O is Olsen. Martz doesn't utilize TEs well. But as far as QBs and WRs - well, Martz has made chicken salad out of chicken#### several times already - including Warner in STL. And as to RBs, you'll see some lessening of rushing attempts, but in exchange you'll get a lot wider running lanes with LBs deeper off the LoS, and you'll get dumps to the RBs in the flats and underneath routes - and both Forte and Taylor have shown they are good receivers out of the backfield. Forte ought to thrive as the running lanes get opened wider and LBs are a step later to meet him in the hole, and with getting the ball in space on circle and dig routes (where nobody in the back 7/8 wants to see him when he's got a head of steam).

 

Dismiss them and let your competition draft them at your peril...

Edited June 14, 2010 by Bronco Billy