Dynasty rookie draft thread

[Jackass]

After 3 rounds, i think it's about time to start a rookie draft thread. Here's how i see it:

 

1. Ingram - cream will rise to the top. Bush may stick around in his role but i see Ingram getting the majority of the carries, at least by 2012.

2. A.J Green - i wouldn't argue too strongly against Jones here but everything i've read is that Green is an elite talent. Might take a couple years of patience while Dalton gets up to speed.

3. Jones - again, could put him 2nd since he's got a good qb. But Atlanta isn't exactly indianapolis and he is the 2nd receiver on the team. How many 2nd receivers become elite studs.

4. Thomas - best situation. ronnie brown and ricky will both be fazed out in a year or so.

5. Williams - could become the main guy in Zona. might take a year or two.

6. Leshoure - with Best still there, tough to see him becoming a stud.

 

 

i see a big drop off at this point.

7 Vareen doesn't excite me on NE in a RBBC.

8. I guess go Baldwin here.

9. Could make an argument for a QB but just a crapshoot. everyone will have a preference here but noone stands out to me.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

What, no Ponder and Rudolph???

[osu1322]

Ingram had talent but last year NlO had Thomas, Ivory, and Bush creating a 3 headed monster that varied from week to week who had the good game and the most carries. I see the same thing happending this year with Bush being let go or traded out of the mix.

 

Green is another great player but I'm uncertain about where he landed. Cinny is in turmoil right now and he may end up being forced to be a #1 or at least a #2 reciever if TO and Ocho.. um Johnson don't resign (which I don't think they will) Could put a lot of pressure on him to preform... I'm still not sold on Palmer either...

 

Jones landed in the best spot IMO. The falcons will want him to be a #2 and take pressure on Roddy White. He's another weapon for the team to use. I'm impressed with his athletic ablities but I'm not sold on him...

 

Thomas I don't know enough about to make any real judgement.... Although I can say that being a young RB in Mia is a good thing.

[Duchess Jack]

Thomas I don't know enough about to make any real judgement.... Although I can say that being a young RB in Mia is a good thing.

at 24, he's older than a lot of starting RBs in the league.

[Savage Beatings]

The Leshoure situation really sucks. Pre-draft I think he was the consensus #4 pick, but not anymore. After Ingram, Green, and Jones I'm not sure who warrants the next pick. Maybe Thomas now in Miami? But I know a lot of people had him pre-draft ranked as the 5th or 6th best RB in the draft. I think it probably has to be Ryan Williams now in Arizona.

Edited April 30, 2011 by Savage Beatings

[Duchess Jack]

The Leshoure situation really sucks.

no doubt. it has DeAngelo/JStew written all over it. I am also unhappy about ARZ taking Williams (speaking as a Beanie owner)

[Zooty]

Mostly agree so far

1- Ingram

2/3- Jones/Green

 

but 4,5 and 6 is still Williams, Leshoure and now Thomas. Reason being, I don't think Det would have taking Leshoure unless they are viewing best as more of a COP/3rd down guy. I don't see it so much as DWill/JStew but more as Reggie Bush/Anyone else

 

I'd still probably taking Williams and Leshoure before Thomas regardless of opportunity. The most talented player will play eventually

 

Then Baldwin, Hankerson, Vareen depending on my team's needs. After that I'd go to QB

[Savage Beatings]

Mark Ingram

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Ryan Williams

Daniel Thomas

Greg Little

 

...

 

Mike Leshoure

[Jackass]

Mostly agree so far

1- Ingram

2/3- Jones/Green

 

but 4,5 and 6 is still Williams, Leshoure and now Thomas. Reason being, I don't think Det would have taking Leshoure unless they are viewing best as more of a COP/3rd down guy. I don't see it so much as DWill/JStew but more as Reggie Bush/Anyone else

 

I'd still probably taking Williams and Leshoure before Thomas regardless of opportunity. The most talented player will play eventually

 

Then Baldwin, Hankerson, Vareen depending on my team's needs. After that I'd go to QB

 

 

I have the 1.04 in one league and after sleeping on it, i think you're right. i'm leaning towards williams. Best makes me more nervous than Wells or hightower and Miami could sign someone in free agency.

[osu1322]

Mark Ingram

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Ryan Williams

Daniel Thomas

Greg Little

 

...

 

Mike Leshoure

 

i love how u mention Greg Little... I still have no idea how good or bad he is but i know he's a Brown

[MikesVikes]

Ingram had talent but last year NlO had Thomas, Ivory, and Bush creating a 3 headed monster that varied from week to week who had the good game and the most carries. I see the same thing happending this year with Bush being let go or traded out of the mix.

 

Maybe the drafting of Ingram indicates that they don't want a 3 headed monster.

[muck]

Baldwin and Bowe could be quite interesting in KC.

[Bronco Billy]

** - Full disclosure: I do not have a draft pick before 1.10 in any league, so I'm not blowing smoke to try to get anyone to drop

 

I'm not seeing the love for Ingram here. DMD and I have already had discussions on this and he's convinced that Ingram is a lock RB1. I'm not. Payton's teams are pass-first and RBBC. Even in Payton's first season when McAllister could have been a bell cow, and ineffective Bush still had 60% of the carries that McAllister did. Since Payton's first year, the Saints have never been in the top half of the league in rushing attempts and are usually in the bottom quarter of the league. Payton loves situational/specialty RBs, and even if Bush or Thomas leave there is still Ivory and Hamilton on the roster, who will get carries.

 

In MIA you have Thomas who looks to get the lion's share in a run-first O. Henne will be in his third year, and unless the Fins go after the very limited number of available FA QBs once the system opens up, the O figures to stay conservative. Even if MIA were to manage a trade for say, Orton, they're still going to run the ball a lot in their O. Thomas isn't quite as talented as Ingram, but the distance between them isn't as great as some think. Ingram got to play on a loaded team, Thomas was forced to put K-State on his back and all the Ds knew it and he still put up superb numbers. MIA is also going to improve their O-line with the addition of Pouncey.

 

Williams is going to a team that is dying to be run-first but doesn't have the capacity to do it. Now they are looking at Bulger at QB to save them. Seriously? How maany games do they expect to get out of him? The bonus to Williams is going to be that with the QB situation there that AZ will probably run the ball a ton, and Wells has shown that he is a bust. I like Williams to put up some decent numbers through sheer attrition, but the ypc numbers and rushing TDs may not look so hot in that O.

 

If you want a RB at 1.01 (which I would also disagree with this year unless you don't play ppr), I'd say Thomas is going to give you better returns when its all siad-and-done. That also means you can probably trade down to 1.03 or 1.04 and get him and acquire another draft pick while doing so.

 

As far as WRs, we've already discussed this a bit also. Green's potential QB play and team around him is going to be substantially less than what Jones' opportunity. Even though Jones is going to be the #2 target on his team, he also will see less attention from DBs because of White on the other side. Both CIN and ATL like to run the ball. We have seen what sketchy or worse QB play does to stud WRs - look at Fitz' production last year. With both Ochostinko and Owens likely gone, Green is the guy who opposing Ds will try to take away in the passing game, which is a tough gig for a young WR. Jones will have every chance to flourish while Green is going to get smothered. That may set Jones' developmental curve ahead of Green's. Plus Jones will be learning how to play the receiver position from White & Gonzo - both of whom are great athletes who know the ins-and-outs of the trade.

 

I like my first 5 in this order:

 

1) Thomas

2) Jones

3) Ingram

4) Green

5) Williams

 

After that, it's a crapshoot and I don't see any real superior edge in picking 1.06 vs 1.12.

[Duchess Jack]

hmmm, I have the 1.5 this year and am in an interesting spot because I have Beanie Wells and Roddy White which (imo) makes Jones and Williams a little more valuable.

[Zooty]

I have the 1.04 in one league and after sleeping on it, i think you're right. i'm leaning towards williams. Best makes me more nervous than Wells or hightower and Miami could sign someone in free agency.

or more likely add one in FA and bring back Williams or Brown

 

 

i love how u mention Greg Little... I still have no idea how good or bad he is but i know he's a Brown

:smokescreen: by Savage

 

 

 

hmmm, I have the 1.5 this year and am in an interesting spot because I have Beanie Wells and Roddy White which (imo) makes Jones and Williams a little more valuable.

IMO Jones is gone before 1.4

[Zooty]

** - Full disclosure: I do not have a draft pick before 1.10 in any league, so I'm not blowing smoke to try to get anyone to drop

 

I'm not seeing the love for Ingram here. DMD and I have already had discussions on this and he's convinced that Ingram is a lock RB1. I'm not. Payton's teams are pass-first and RBBC. Even in Payton's first season when McAllister could have been a bell cow, and ineffective Bush still had 60% of the carries that McAllister did. Since Payton's first year, the Saints have never been in the top half of the league in rushing attempts and are usually in the bottom quarter of the league. Payton loves situational/specialty RBs, and even if Bush or Thomas leave there is still Ivory and Hamilton on the roster, who will get carries.

 

In MIA you have Thomas who looks to get the lion's share in a run-first O. Henne will be in his third year, and unless the Fins go after the very limited number of available FA QBs once the system opens up, the O figures to stay conservative. Even if MIA were to manage a trade for say, Orton, they're still going to run the ball a lot in their O. Thomas isn't quite as talented as Ingram, but the distance between them isn't as great as some think. Ingram got to play on a loaded team, Thomas was forced to put K-State on his back and all the Ds knew it and he still put up superb numbers. MIA is also going to improve their O-line with the addition of Pouncey.

 

Williams is going to a team that is dying to be run-first but doesn't have the capacity to do it. Now they are looking at Bulger at QB to save them. Seriously? How maany games do they expect to get out of him? The bonus to Williams is going to be that with the QB situation there that AZ will probably run the ball a ton, and Wells has shown that he is a bust. I like Williams to put up some decent numbers through sheer attrition, but the ypc numbers and rushing TDs may not look so hot in that O.

 

If you want a RB at 1.01 (which I would also disagree with this year unless you don't play ppr), I'd say Thomas is going to give you better returns when its all siad-and-done. That also means you can probably trade down to 1.03 or 1.04 and get him and acquire another draft pick while doing so.

 

As far as WRs, we've already discussed this a bit also. Green's potential QB play and team around him is going to be substantially less than what Jones' opportunity. Even though Jones is going to be the #2 target on his team, he also will see less attention from DBs because of White on the other side. Both CIN and ATL like to run the ball. We have seen what sketchy or worse QB play does to stud WRs - look at Fitz' production last year. With both Ochostinko and Owens likely gone, Green is the guy who opposing Ds will try to take away in the passing game, which is a tough gig for a young WR. Jones will have every chance to flourish while Green is going to get smothered. That may set Jones' developmental curve ahead of Green's. Plus Jones will be learning how to play the receiver position from White & Gonzo - both of whom are great athletes who know the ins-and-outs of the trade.

 

I like my first 5 in this order:

 

1) Thomas

2) Jones

3) Ingram

4) Green

5) Williams

 

After that, it's a crapshoot and I don't see any real superior edge in picking 1.06 vs 1.12.

 

Jeez Detlef BB that was long

 

I'm not saying that Ingram should go 1.01 but should be top 3 with the 2 WRs. Payton also has not had a back as talented as Ingram hence the RBBC. In the long run of a dynasty he's the better pick IMO. Thomas may end up as a stopgap for a few years and be the best THIS year but over a career I expect Ingram to be better. JMHO

 

and for the record: I have 1.05 and 1.06 in one league and 1.05 in another (nothing before 1.12 in the rest) so I get what's left

Edited April 30, 2011 by Zooty

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

hmmm, I have the 1.5 this year and am in an interesting spot because I have Beanie Wells and Roddy White which (imo) makes Jones and Williams a little more valuable.

 

If the league ever gets its act together with a new CBA, maybe the Cards package Beanie in a trade for Kolb or Orton.

[jetsfan]

If the league ever gets its act together with a new CBA, maybe the Cards package Beanie in a trade for Kolb or Orton a six-pack of Hamm's if they're lucky.

 

fixed

Edited April 30, 2011 by jetsfan

[bostonsoxandy]

Vereen may have some decent fantasy value (as far as rookies atleast and especially in PPR) due to his pass-catching ability, reminds me a lot of Kevin Faulk and how Belichick used him. Probably could get him in later round in a rookie draft as well.

 

Also Randall Cobb (WR) for the Packers may have some value as a home-run threat and is being called the best return man in the draft class if that comes into effect in your league.

[Jackass]

Vereen may have some decent fantasy value (as far as rookies atleast and especially in PPR) due to his pass-catching ability, reminds me a lot of Kevin Faulk and how Belichick used him. Probably could get him in later round in a rookie draft as well.

 

Also Randall Cobb (WR) for the Packers may have some value as a home-run threat and is being called the best return man in the draft class if that comes into effect in your league.

 

As good as a player as Kevin Faulk was he never had any fantasy value. If that's the best case scenario, that's not really a selling point for me.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Maybe the drafting of Ingram indicates that they don't want a 3 headed monster.

 

or maybe the drafting of Ingram indicates they'd just like to add a RB that doesn't get hurt every 3 games...

[kpholmes]

Mostly agree so far

1- Ingram

2/3- Jones/Green

 

but 4,5 and 6 is still Williams, Leshoure and now Thomas. Reason being, I don't think Det would have taking Leshoure unless they are viewing best as more of a COP/3rd down guy. I don't see it so much as DWill/JStew but more as Reggie Bush/Anyone else

 

This.

 

Anyone who has ever watched Jahvid Best play at his highest ability knows that he needs 15 touches a game MAX.

Leshoure is there to pound the ball, Best will be the home run hitter.

[darin3]

As good as a player as Kevin Faulk was he never had any fantasy value. If that's the best case scenario, that's not really a selling point for me.

Since this thread is titled with "Dynasty", I have to disagree here. Faulk provided decent fill-in capabilities due to his pass-catching ability. That is, in most dynasty formats where pretty much every viable player is on a roster.

[Guest mrbass]

I'm really not going into how...as it would take a while to explain, but I've been blessed with multiple 1st round picks this year and a few next in my dynasty league and I'm locked on a couple players, but with Baldwin going to KC that changed a little of my thought process.

 

When going outside the top 6-7 picks ( none IDP Leagues) it gets tough on who to take and who to hope slides back to you.

 

I'm torn on if D Murray, for a team with a RB need should be taken at 7 or 8...Not Needing a future qb....

Edited April 30, 2011 by mrbass

[Jackass]

Since this thread is titled with "Dynasty", I have to disagree here. Faulk provided decent fill-in capabilities due to his pass-catching ability. That is, in most dynasty formats where pretty much every viable player is on a roster.

 

ok fine. it depends on league rules. in my league, there's often players on the waiver wire that can be had that would be of equal value. if your league is not like that, i suppose he has value. regardless that's not a very high ceiling for someone under consideration for a mid first round pick.