AJ Green

[anismith]

Is anyone else getting tired of AJ Green's production? I know it isn't his fault since there are a lot of mouths to feed in that defense. I needed to play him this week because of a bye, but I think I might bench him for a bit going forward unless my other receivers have terrible matchups.

[Shaft]

If you're unhappy, I would say trade him. He's a wide receiver's slugger/home run hitter. He's going big or very little. I learned that the hard way with him last year.

[Shorttynaz]

Is anyone else getting tired of AJ Green's production? I know it isn't his fault since there are a lot of mouths to feed in that defense. I needed to play him this week because of a bye, but I think I might bench him for a bit going forward unless my other receivers have terrible matchups.

Um.. Doesn't he play on offense?

[rajncajn]

If you're unhappy, I would say trade him. He's a wide receiver's slugger/home run hitter. He's going big or very little. I learned that the hard way with him last year.

Exactly why I traded him last year. Ended up being the week before he got hurt.

[Def.]

He's currently a top 10 WR in PPR, I'm failing to see the problem?

[stevegrab]

He's currently a top 10 WR in PPR, I'm failing to see the problem?

Mine is not a PPR league (6pt/TD, 1pt/10 rush/rec yds) and he is 5th overall But looking at his weekly scores rather streaky, many under 10, only 3 in double digits (in 8 games) and one moster week. 6-10-34-8-7-3-17-5. So his total and averarge are heavily skewed by one really big week, meaning he isn't doing that good most weeks.

 

Since I don't follow him much I didn't realize this either, over 1/3 of this total for the season came in one of his 8 games. This the problem with looking only at total points, or average per game, it masks things like one big game and lack of consistency. Not sure if others with similar scoring are less streaky.

[timeconsumer]

But is week-to-week consistency a good thing or a bad thing? I'd argue it's neither.

 

If you have a struggling team and you are an underdog each week, being consistent won't help you win. The guys getting their average is just another loss. You need some variance so if one or two guys have a big game you can score a win.

 

If you have a strong team, then you just need your players to do their thing and score you a decent amount of points per week as you walk all over your weaker opponents. Consistency is good in that case.

Edited November 6, 2015 by timeconsumer

[stevegrab]

Consistency from a stud player is a good thing in my view. Your WR2/3, RB3, flex player, TE, K, D many of those will be streaky already, so I'd prefer some consistency from the top scores (QB, RB1, WR1). I've had very good total/average scoring players befor that were streaky, and they kill your team. One week they blow up and you win by 20, other weeks they underperfom and you're losing by a few points.

[Def.]

Mine is not a PPR league (6pt/TD, 1pt/10 rush/rec yds) and he is 5th overall But looking at his weekly scores rather streaky, many under 10, only 3 in double digits (in 8 games) and one moster week. 6-10-34-8-7-3-17-5. So his total and averarge are heavily skewed by one really big week, meaning he isn't doing that good most weeks.

 

Since I don't follow him much I didn't realize this either, over 1/3 of this total for the season came in one of his 8 games. This the problem with looking only at total points, or average per game, it masks things like one big game and lack of consistency. Not sure if others with similar scoring are less streaky.

 

He's only scored less then double digits twice in ppr, one being last night and that was was just barely under. Seem's like a decent floor with a hell of a ceiling (as evidenced weeks 3 and 8) in that setup. Both PPR leagues I have him he's my #2 WR (Julio in one, Hopkins in the other) so it's not like I'm depending on him to carry the WR load.

[stevegrab]

 

He's only scored less then double digits twice in ppr, one being last night and that was was just barely under. Seem's like a decent floor with a hell of a ceiling (as evidenced weeks 3 and 8) in that setup. Both PPR leagues I have him he's my #2 WR (Julio in one, Hopkins in the other) so it's not like I'm depending on him to carry the WR load.

But all WR in PPR are scoring more, right, so more guys are in double digits? Yes I know he catches a lot of passes, so it skews a little in his favor.

 

Also not many teams have a guy like him as their WR2. That's probably why it bothers you less than most.

[whomper]

I needed a good night from him last night since Bye weeks and injuries left me thin at other spots. What a letdown

[gilthorp]

I needed a good night from him last night since Bye weeks and injuries left me thin at other spots. What a letdown

 

He goes from being fragile, to not producing, to exploding - he's great when he's at a high cycle, but not really a Top 10 guy when you look at the big picture. This year is worse since they are 8-0 now, and have the ability to pound the ball in what they call a "run first" offense.

[timeconsumer]

Since I'm bored at work I decided to see just how consistent (or inconsistent) AJ Green is this season compared to other WRs.

 

I used standard scoring data (since that is the OPs league). I looked at all fantasy points weeks 1-8 and calculated the standard deviation. I know it's pretty basic, but I don't feel like going too in-depth on this analysis, however it is somewhat revealing. The player with a higher standard deviation is less consistent than a player with a lower standard deviation.

 

AJ Green resulted in a standard deviation of 9.98, the highest (most inconsistent) in the league. Up there with him are Steve Smith (9.90), Odell Beckham (9.05), Martavis Bryant (8.73), Randall Cobb (8.40), and Julio Jones (8.35).

 

Of the top-25 receivers (because players that regularly score 0 points are the most consistent and rather irrelevant) the player with the lowest standard deviation (consistent) was Eric Decker (2.21). Up there with him was Brandon Marshall (3.41), Demaryius Thomas (3.9), Allen Hurns (4.5), and John Brown (4.8).

 

I'll let you draw your own conclusions from the data.

Edited November 6, 2015 by timeconsumer

[InTomWeTrust]

Since I'm bored at work I decided to see just how consistent (or inconsistent) AJ Green is this season compared to other WRs.

 

I used standard scoring data (since that is the OPs league). I looked at all fantasy points weeks 1-8 and calculated the standard deviation. I know it's pretty basic, but I don't feel like going too in-depth on this analysis, however it is somewhat revealing. The player with a higher standard deviation is less consistent than a player with a lower standard deviation.

 

AJ Green resulted in a standard deviation of 9.98, the highest (most inconsistent) in the league. Up there with him are Steve Smith (9.90), Odell Beckham (9.05), Martavis Bryant (8.73), Randall Cobb (8.40), and Julio Jones (8.35).

 

Of the top-25 receivers (because players that regularly score 0 points are the most consistent and rather irrelevant) the player with the lowest standard deviation (consistent) was Eric Decker (2.21). Up there with him was Brandon Marshall (3.41), Demaryius Thomas (3.9), Allen Hurns (4.5), and John Brown (4.8).

 

I'll let you draw your own conclusions from the data.

 

I just traded Beckham for Aj green in standard..

 

 

Im fine with that going into the playoffs and the primetime game next week for AJ and that bekcham has a bye week etc.

 

 

My other WR are

 

Julio, Martavis, Ty and Landry..

 

It was the eifert show last night, Aj will get his.

Edited November 6, 2015 by InTomWeTrust

[Shaft]

Since I'm bored at work I decided to see just how consistent (or inconsistent) AJ Green is this season compared to other WRs.

 

I used standard scoring data (since that is the OPs league). I looked at all fantasy points weeks 1-8 and calculated the standard deviation. I know it's pretty basic, but I don't feel like going too in-depth on this analysis, however it is somewhat revealing. The player with a higher standard deviation is less consistent than a player with a lower standard deviation.

 

AJ Green resulted in a standard deviation of 9.98, the highest (most inconsistent) in the league. Up there with him are Steve Smith (9.90), Odell Beckham (9.05), Martavis Bryant (8.73), Randall Cobb (8.40), and Julio Jones (8.35).

 

Of the top-25 receivers (because players that regularly score 0 points are the most consistent and rather irrelevant) the player with the lowest standard deviation (consistent) was Eric Decker (2.21). Up there with him was Brandon Marshall (3.41), Demaryius Thomas (3.9), Allen Hurns (4.5), and John Brown (4.8).

 

I'll let you draw your own conclusions from the data.

As a researcher I can appreciate and admire this simple, but important analysis. I lost with AJ in the playoffs last year because it was one of his quiet nights and he has a lot of those. His big games skew his average a lot. I didn't know Julio Jones was there, but a simple review of his games definitely support your findings. Like someone said, these players are great when you're an underdog and need high ceilings, but for a good team, I like the consistency that players like D. Thomas and B. Marshall bring.

[gilthorp]

I think the analysis is fun to do, but pretty much meaningless - you are finding high spike guys who will give you more when they give it to you, and flame out a become normal when they don't. When they give you more, you're going to reap the rewards more so than hoping you get more from others who don't.

 

Having more than one of these high spikers and they both hit on the same week, good night - game over. You win.

[timeconsumer]

I think the analysis is fun to do, but pretty much meaningless - you are finding high spike guys who will give you more when they give it to you, and flame out a become normal when they don't. When they give you more, you're going to reap the rewards more so than hoping you get more from others who don't.

 

Having more than one of these high spikers and they both hit on the same week, good night - game over. You win.

Pretty much why I ended it with "I'll let you draw your own conclusions from the data". I own AJ Green in my half-ppr league and I'm going to continue owning him. It takes more than a little variance to scare me away from a top-10 receiver. But everyone has a different strategy/style.

Edited November 6, 2015 by timeconsumer

[gilthorp]

Pretty much why I ended it with "I'll let you draw your own conclusions from the data". I own AJ Green in my half-ppr league and I'm going to continue owning him. It takes more than a little variance to scare me away from a top-10 receiver. But everyone has a different strategy/style.

 

It's really the only way to go in today's fantasy. Get middle of the road guys across your roster and in the past, you could wait on other teams to have off weeks - now, you are just a middle feeder.

 

You have to get a spike and in PPR, WR is the way to go, unless it's a 6 PTs for TD's Passed, then those QB's can be the ones that give you that bolster.

[Shaft]

I think the analysis is fun to do, but pretty much meaningless - you are finding high spike guys who will give you more when they give it to you, and flame out a become normal when they don't. When they give you more, you're going to reap the rewards more so than hoping you get more from others who don't.

 

Having more than one of these high spikers and they both hit on the same week, good night - game over. You win.

I don't think the analysis is meaningless if it is used effectively. It can help you appreciate guys like Mark Ingram, who is second amongst RBs in my league. He hardly ever puts up a BIG game, but he's a constant 10-15 points and he's second to Freeman. Analysis like these can help you appreciate players like him. I know his ranking is greatly influenced with some of the other big names going down, but if you can combine your roster with the AJs plus the Ingrams, you can put your team in a good position.

[doobwaa]

if your in a league where total points count toward a post season spot than who cares about consistency!

 

if you're not in that kind of league ...well .... yeah it sux

[gilthorp]

I don't think the analysis is meaningless if it is used effectively. It can help you appreciate guys like Mark Ingram, who is second amongst RBs in my league. He hardly ever puts up a BIG game, but he's a constant 10-15 points and he's second to Freeman. Analysis like these can help you appreciate players like him. I know his ranking is greatly influenced with some of the other big names going down, but if you can combine your roster with the AJs plus the Ingrams, you can put your team in a good position.

 

The deviation on high ceiling players will always be larger than the rest. Meaningless from that standpoint. You can look at position players that have the highest scores of the year, and they'll have the highest deviation.

 

Brees' deviation just spiked this weekend, Eli's totally did.

[Shaft]

 

The deviation on high ceiling players will always be larger than the rest. Meaningless from that standpoint. You can look at position players that have the highest scores of the year, and they'll have the highest deviation.

 

Brees' deviation just spiked this weekend, Eli's totally did.

I definitely agree with this viewpoint. I just think this analysis is valuable when drafting those mid-round players or picking up those undervalued players.

[popcrnchicken]

 

I just traded Beckham for Aj green in standard..

 

 

Im fine with that going into the playoffs and the primetime game next week for AJ and that bekcham has a bye week etc.

 

 

My other WR are

 

Julio, Martavis, Ty and Landry..

 

It was the eifert show last night, Aj will get his.

 

STOP THE PRESSES! Did you really trade Beckham to get A.J. Green? Collusion? Accident?

[colkurtz]

He's currently a top 10 WR in PPR, I'm failing to see the problem?

One monster game, one huge game, nothing over 15 points in the others including 2 single digit games. Top 10 statistically, but more of a wr2 and hard to rely on.

[flemingd]

 

STOP THE PRESSES! Did you really trade Beckham to get A.J. Green? Collusion? Accident?

omfg get bent

Edited November 7, 2015 by flemingd