Have we had any rookie drafts yet?

[byron2112]

always nice to see what other folks are thinking  in terms of draft position... I'm thinking Dynasty here..

[tazinib1]

[michaelredd9]

There have been a couple of hundred rookie-only drafts on MFL.  Here are the adp's so far: 2018 MFL Rookie-Only Adp's

 

[byron2112]

ah cool, thanks man.... I suspected MFL would have something just don't know how to get there..

[DMD]

Seven RBs to start that Rookie ADP. It is just heartwarming to see the position start to matter again. Last year was great for RBs

1.04	JAC	Fournette, Leonard
1.08	CAR	McCaffrey, Christian
2.09	MIN	Cook, Dalvin
2.16	CIN	Mixon, Joe
3.03	NO	Kamara, Alvin
3.22	KC	Hunt, Kareem

 

2016 less great

1.04	DAL	Elliott, Ezekiel
2.14	TEN	Henry, Derrick
3.10	MIA	Drake, Kenyan
3.27	SEA	Prosise, C.J.

 

2015 mostly not great but Gurley and David Johnson

 

1.10	STL	Gurley, Todd
1.15	SD	Gordon, Melvin
2.04	JAC	Yeldon, T.J.
2.22	DET	Abdullah, Ameer
3.09	ATL	Coleman, Tevin
3.13	CLE	Johnson, Duke
3.22	ARI	Johnson, David
3.31	WAS	Jones, Matt

 

Then 2014 was horrible

 

2.22	TEN	Sankey, Bishop
2.23	CIN	Hill, Jeremy
2.25	SF	Hyde, Carlos
3.05	TB	Sims, Charles
3.11	STL	Mason, Tre
3.30	CLE	West, Terrance

 

2013 horrible except for Bell

 

2.05	CIN	Bernard, Giovani
2.16	PIT	Bell, Le'Veon
2.26	DEN	Ball, Montee
2.29	GB	Lacy, Eddie
2.30	SEA	Michael, Christine
3.34	KC	Davis, Knile

 

2012 was a total whiff other than Martin having 2 decent years

 

1.03	CLE	Richardson, Trent
1.31	TB	Martin, Doug
1.32	NYG	Wilson, David
2.18	STL	Pead, Isaiah
2.29	SF	James, LaMichael
3.04	DEN	Hillman, Ronnie
3.21	BAL	Pierce, Bernard

 

 

Nice to see the position have so much promise but I wonder if it is true or that we are overvaluing based on the success of 2017?

 

 

[NAUgrad]

Wow look at some of those names.  Can't help but think that if some where taken by a different team, they might still be playing or at least more impactful.

[byron2112]

On 5/6/2018 at 4:32 PM, DMD said:

2015 mostly not great but Gurley and David Johnson

 

1.10	STL	Gurley, Todd
1.15	SD	Gordon, Melvin
2.04	JAC	Yeldon, T.J.
2.22	DET	Abdullah, Ameer
3.09	ATL	Coleman, Tevin
3.13	CLE	Johnson, Duke
3.22	ARI	Johnson, David
3.31	WAS	Jones, Matt

 

no love for Gordon?

 

Shaky first year, but he's produced allround since and he seems to have a nose for the endzone... if not impressively elite production, IMO he suffers some from the Chargers ongoing crappy line situation..

 

I think I read somewhere that he had the 3rd-4th most touches of any back last season... looks like he has no competition again this year.

 

maybe people are waiting for him to fall off and return to that rookie form...?

[DMD]

4 hours ago, byron2112 said:

no love for Gordon?

 

Shaky first year, but he's produced allround since and he seems to have a nose for the endzone... if not impressively elite production, IMO he suffers some from the Chargers ongoing crappy line situation..

 

I think I read somewhere that he had the 3rd-4th most touches of any back last season... looks like he has no competition again this year.

 

maybe people are waiting for him to fall off and return to that rookie form...?

 

Gurley and Johnson have been stellar. But Gordon has been good and even Duke Johnson gets some credit as well. For being the 15th overall pick, he's been mostly to expectations so yeah he should be considered.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Dynasty rookie draft (can draft vet FA) that started Monday, May 7th...half point per reception, 14 team league.

 

Round 1

1.01 RB - Barkley

1.02 RB - Guice

1.03 RB - Jones

1.04 RB - Michel

1.05 RB - Penny

1.06 RB - Chubb

1.07 RB - Freeman

1.08 RB - KJohnson

1.09 WR - Moore

1.10 WR - Sutton

1.11 WR - Ridley

1.12 WR - Kirk

1.13 WR - Gallup

1.14 QB - Rosen

 

Round 2

2.01 QB - Mayfield

2.02 QB - LJackson

2.03 WR - JWashington

2.04 RB - Hines

2.05 TE - Gesicki

2.06 TE - Goedert

2.07 WR - Pettis

2.08 QB - Darnold

2.09 WR - AMiller

2.10 RB - Ballage

2.11 QB - JAllen

2.12 TE - Hurst

2.13 TE - TBurton

2.14 WR - Coutee

Edited May 10, 2018 by ABearWithFurniture

[DMD]

Not a lot of love for the rookie WR this year. But deservedly.

[darin3]

25 minutes ago, DMD said:

Not a lot of love for the rookie WR this year. But deservedly.

 

DJ Moore - has some stud, WR1 qualities and goes to a decent situation.  Would prefer if the team threw the ball more.

 

Calvin Ridley - Roddy White 2.0?  Nice situation.  Impressive route runner will excel in this offense.

 

Michael Gallup - probably the easiest path to immediate impacts.  Lots to like here.

 

Anthony Miller - in a similar situation to Ridley, will likely be second in pecking order... but emerging offense and could draw the favor of the young QB over A-Rob.  Maybe.

 

Courtland Sutton - physical freak in a good situation... will just need a year (or two) to fully realize potential

 

James Washington - PIT knows how to draft WRs... departure of Bryant opens up a path but Brown/JuJu will command 75% of the targets, if not more... long term stash with college QB in line to succeed Big Ben

 

DJ Chark - pure speed guy in a crowded stable of WRs... not a fan

 

Dante Pettis - profiles well to Jimmy G's talents

 

Christian Kirk - oops, forgot quite possibly the best one... love the landing spot; gets to work under Fitz and eventually Rosen's #1 target

 

I see some decent options here.

Edited May 8, 2018 by darin3

[DMD]

And maybe they will pan out. At least a few of them. But it was considered a weak WR class and none were taken until 1.24.

 

First 2 rounds:

 

1.24    CAR    D.J. Moore
1.26    ATL    Calvin Ridley
2.08    DEN    Courtland Sutton
2.12    SF    Dante Pettis
2.15    ARI    Christian Kirk
2.19    CHI    Anthony Miller
2.28    PIT    James Washington
2.29    JAC    DJ Chark
 

2017 first 2 rounds from what considered a great WR class:

 

1.05	TEN	Davis, Corey
1.07	LAC	Williams, Mike
1.09	CIN	Ross, John
2.05	BUF	Jones, Zay
2.08	CAR	Samuel, Curtis
2.30	PIT	Smith-Schuster, JuJu

 

JuJu was the only one that hit so far.

 

2016 first 2 rounds:

 

1.15    CLE    Coleman, Corey
1.21    HOU    Fuller, Will
1.22    WAS    Doctson, Josh
1.23    MIN    Treadwell, Laquon
2.09    NYG    Shepard, Sterling
2.16    NO    Thomas, Michael
2.24    CIN    Boyd, Tyler

 

Thomas was a hit but played with Brees. Fuller does well so long as Watson plays. But the first two rounds of what were considered to be more talented draft classes has started slowly at the least. And in terms of expectations for rookie years, the trend is not good.

 

 

[Caveman_Nick]

Just to build on what DMD said...strategically it’s harder to draft a WR,  because they are both harder to predict in terms of likely success AND they are also likely to need space on your taxi squad for longer than an RB.  For an early first round pick, i would need to feel like a WR was an AJ Green / Julio Jones kind of blue chip.  It seems easier to grab as much draft success as you can and then trade that into positional need.

[the lone star]

On 5/6/2018 at 2:58 PM, michaelredd9 said:

There have been a couple of hundred rookie-only drafts on MFL.  Here are the adp's so far: 2018 MFL Rookie-Only Adp's

 

 

Thanks for the share.

[the lone star]

23 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

My dynasty rookie draft that started last night has gone thru 1 round so far...half point per reception, 14 team league.

 

1.01 RB - Barkley

1.02 RB - Guice

1.03 RB - Jones

1.04 RB - Michel

1.05 RB - Penny

1.06 RB - Chubb

1.07 RB - Freeman

1.08 RB - KJohnson

1.09 WR - Moore

1.10 WR - Sutton

1.11 WR - Ridley

1.12 WR - Kirk

1.13 WR - Gallup

1.14 QB - Rosen

 

Nice. I like .5 PPR way more than full PPR.

[the lone star]

22 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

DJ Moore - has some stud, WR1 qualities and goes to a decent situation.  Would prefer if the team threw the ball more.

 

Calvin Ridley - Roddy White 2.0?  Nice situation.  Impressive route runner will excel in this offense.

 

Michael Gallup - probably the easiest path to immediate impacts.  Lots to like here.

 

Anthony Miller - in a similar situation to Ridley, will likely be second in pecking order... but emerging offense and could draw the favor of the young QB over A-Rob.  Maybe.

 

Courtland Sutton - physical freak in a good situation... will just need a year (or two) to fully realize potential

 

James Washington - PIT knows how to draft WRs... departure of Bryant opens up a path but Brown/JuJu will command 75% of the targets, if not more... long term stash with college QB in line to succeed Big Ben

 

DJ Chark - pure speed guy in a crowded stable of WRs... not a fan

 

Dante Pettis - profiles well to Jimmy G's talents

 

Christian Kirk - oops, forgot quite possibly the best one... love the landing spot; gets to work under Fitz and eventually Rosen's #1 target

 

I see some decent options here.

 

Good analysis. I like Washington's fit a lot. Pitt does draft WRs well, but can't forget about the Big Ben effect. He usually gets his WRs to produce.

 

Coates was a huge miss though. I didn't like his route tree coming out of college, so not too surprised by that one.

Edited May 9, 2018 by the lone star

[darin3]

Just now, the lone star said:

 

Good analysis. I like Washington's fit a lot. Pitt does draft WRs well, but can't forget about the Big Ben effect. He usually gets his WRs to produce.

 

We may not see Washington's full value until Big Ben is gone.

[the lone star]

Just now, darin3 said:

 

We may not see Washington's full value until Big Ben is gone.

 

Yeah, that's fair. It usually takes WRs a few years to realize their full potential, and ionno how many years Big Ben has left. Rudolph was a nice grab, but I also liked the QB they took last year. Dobbs looked solid in the preseason, but then again, that is the preseason.

[DMD]

30 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

We may not see Washington's full value until Big Ben is gone.

 

I loved the kid in the draft. I was hoping DAL took him. The #3 in PIT is sadly less appealing. But PIT should have a great trio.

[General Itals]

Rookie draft occurring now in a league with two 16 team conferences.  I'm Red Headed Step Child in the AFC.

 

http://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=18410&O=17

[Big John]

On 5/6/2018 at 2:58 PM, michaelredd9 said:

There have been a couple of hundred rookie-only drafts on MFL.  Here are the adp's so far: 2018 MFL Rookie-Only Adp's

 

I took a look at this again and it now shows Guice over Barkley.

[michaelredd9]

12 minutes ago, Big John said:

I took a look at this again and it now shows Guice over Barkley.

 

And Barkley's adp is 9.44.  His adp in "rookie-only" should be less than 2.  Something isn't right.  Maybe a glitch in their software.  They had something weird going on with the "full redraft" adp's a couple of weeks ago.  I did a screenshot of it:

#	PLAYER	AVG. PICK	MIN. PICK	MAX. PICK	# DRAFTS SELECTED IN
1.	Johnson, David ARI RB	8.03	2	118	165
2.	Allen, Keenan LAC WR	17.56	3	40	165
3.	Adams, Davante GBP WR	19.80	9	45	167
4.	Cooper, Amari OAK WR	26.56	11	68	164
5.	Wentz, Carson PHI QB	32.67	1	124	165
6.	Robinson, Allen CHI WR	35.09	8	80	166
7.	Gordon, Josh CLE WR	50.05	2	127	167
8.	Newton, Cam CAR QB	53.58	1	123	166
9.	Kupp, Cooper LAR WR	69.23	7	146	161
10.	Tate, Golden DET WR	73.51	24	198	166
11.	Penny, Rashaad FA RB	81.49	17	185	105
12.	McKinnon, Jerick SFO RB	82.39	10	193	165
13.	Agholor, Nelson PHI WR	90.95	8	267	164
14.	Collins, Alex BAL RB	93.04	28	191	160
15.	Ridley, Calvin FA WR	98.12	10	220	104
16.	Kittle, George SFO TE	113.62	36	343	157
17.	Johnson, Kerryon FA RB	115.61	12	248	103
18.	Kirk, Christian FA WR	122.07	7	278	99
19.	Brown, Zach WAS LB	133.18	45	284	11
20.	Jones, Chandler ARI LB	135.75	12	272	12

[Big Country]

15 hours ago, Big John said:

I took a look at this again and it now shows Guice over Barkley.

 

Tweak the filter a little to "Exclude Mock Drafts" and I also chose "Starting After May 1" and it seems to be much more normal - Barkley is top rookie with ADP of 1.13 and Guice is #2 with ADP of 3.15. Next 4 guys ADP are all between 5.7 and 7.3 which shows just how much of a jumble it is right now with no clear cut 3rd guy, etc.

 

With the default setting, even though it says rookie only drafts, the max picks are out of whack - Barkley has a max pick of 721 and most of the others have max picks in the mid 300s.

 

Not necessarily anything wrong in their data, as not everyone uses the draft the same way or takes the time to properly setup their draft/league so that it can be filtered, etc. for these things.

[michaelredd9]

MFL has also done away with "Public League" adps.  They even erased the "Public League" adp results from previous years, too.  It is unfortunate because the "Public League" adps is the adp list that I have always found to be most accurate.  The "Public League" drafts are from the MFL10s, MFL25s, etc.  So they are pay leagues that have have set rules that are pretty generic.  If you look at the names of the leagues in the "Full Redrafts" adp list, about a quarter or a third of them have the word "dynasty" in their league name.  That many dynasty leagues is definitely change the results.  I guess it's time to look for a new adp list.

 

[stevegrab]

5 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

MFL has also done away with "Public League" adps.  They even erased the "Public League" adp results from previous years, too.  It is unfortunate because the "Public League" adps is the adp list that I have always found to be most accurate.  The "Public League" drafts are from the MFL10s, MFL25s, etc.  So they are pay leagues that have have set rules that are pretty generic.  If you look at the names of the leagues in the "Full Redrafts" adp list, about a quarter or a third of them have the word "dynasty" in their league name.  That many dynasty leagues is definitely change the results.  I guess it's time to look for a new adp list.

 

 

I suspect you're looking for one that lets you see similar information. I had a couple bookmarked, not sure how much I was using them recently, recall doing an online search for a new source myself.

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

 

antsports.com was another one I had, but when I looked that link went to home page and nothing here about ADP