The Irish Doggy Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wiegie, the market is down nearly 11% from the April highs. At it's lows in July, the market was down 14.5%. On top of all that, my initial forecast was dow 5k by year-end and it's not year-end yet - so how am I wrong? I have retracted my initial forecast and stated multiple times that dow 5k by year end probably won't happen but it certainly will soon enough. And by the end of this bear market, we will be at dow levels that nobody can fathom right now. So, my forecast is right on track, deflationary depression, market sinking - it's all happening and I was talking about it before anybody was. Meh. I just don't get it. I'm buying today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wiegie, the market is down nearly 11% from the April highs. At it's lows in July, the market was down 14.5%. On top of all that, my initial forecast was dow 5k by year-end and it's not year-end yet - so how am I wrong? I have retracted my initial forecast and stated multiple times that dow 5k by year end probably won't happen but it certainly will soon enough. And by the end of this bear market, we will be at dow levels that nobody can fathom right now. So, my forecast is right on track, deflationary depression, market sinking - it's all happening and I was talking about it before anybody was. deflation has only hit certain areas IE: housing market due to artificial lending rates and inflated prices....something had to give.. but there isn't deflation in everything, it's only correcting what was being manipulated and we'll see more deflation and hopefully avoid what I believe to be an inflationary depression which could follow... with the way our government works, they'll try and inflate their way out of debt by printing money and if deflation spreads to other areas, they'll likely print their way out of deflation and probably make things worse... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 deflation has only hit certain areas IE: housing market due to artificial lending rates and inflated prices....something had to give.. but there isn't deflation in everything, it's only correcting what was being manipulated and we'll see more deflation and hopefully avoid what I believe to be an inflationary depression which could follow... with the way our government works, they'll try and inflate their way out of debt by printing money and if deflation spreads to other areas, they'll likely print their way out of deflation and probably make things worse... Deflation will take some time to grab hold on everything. It's still early in this depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Meh. I just don't get it. I'm buying today. I upped my 401K contribution to the max allowable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wiegie, the market is down nearly 11% from the April highs. At it's lows in July, the market was down 14.5%. On top of all that, my initial forecast was dow 5k by year-end and it's not year-end yet - so how am I wrong? I have retracted my initial forecast and stated multiple times that dow 5k by year end probably won't happen but it certainly will soon enough. And by the end of this bear market, we will be at dow levels that nobody can fathom right now. So, my forecast is right on track, deflationary depression, market sinking - it's all happening and I was talking about it before anybody was. I believe the doomsday scenario I describe below has started. Don't say I didn't warn you guys. I would be heavy cash as much as possible. I sold all my stocks a few months back in anticipation of a HUGH drop. Don't be surprised if by training camp, the DOW is hovering around 6,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Brent, I will never say you didn't warn me...unlike that hippie wiegie that could've made one big all caps post or something before the market collapsed a couple of years ago that he claimed he knew was coming all along to let us all move our 401(k) and other monies out to save us a bundle. Yeah, I must've missed that forewarning post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wow, you're really digging. I've literally made hundreds of posts since this, retracting this call. I've stated several times that timing is the hardest predict but that direction and price are not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wow, you're really digging. I've literally made hundreds of posts since this, retracting this call. I've stated several times that timing is the hardest predict but that direction and price are not. You need to take any money you have left and see a psychiatrist asap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 I buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Wow, you're really digging. I've literally made hundreds of posts since this, retracting this call. So, what good is a prediction from you if you are going to retract it. How do we know that you aren't going to just retract every other prediction you make. About the only thing you have left going for you is the caveat that past performance is not necessarily indicatory of future results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 So, what good is a prediction from you if you are going to retract it. How do we know that you aren't going to just retract every other prediction you make. About the only thing you have left going for you is the caveat that past performance is not necessarily indicatory of future results. We're headed toward dow 5k and probably lower - it's that simple. I've remained consistent with that call. It might not happen this year as I initially predicted but it's going to happen sooner than anybody wants. You can nit pick about my timing but in the end, when we're sitting at dow 5k and in the midst of a deflationary depression, anyone who took my advice and got out of stocks and into cash will be in a very good position financially. That's all that matters in the end. Not whether I was right within a day or a month. It's silly that you keep trying to pin that on me when I have literally stated hundreds of times that timing is the hardest thing to predict. I'm done now - see you in another few months when the market is decidedly lower than it is today - 8500 range (dow) and probably lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Even though you say it's not important, it seems to me the fatal flaw in the EWT (admittedly the little that I understand it) is in the timing. There seems to be a constant re-analysis to figure out exactly which wave we are in. Alot of after the fact analysis and readjustment along the way, all the while trying to claim an I told you so mentality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 24, 2010 Share Posted August 24, 2010 Even though you say it's not important, it seems to me the fatal flaw in the EWT (admittedly the little that I understand it) is in the timing. There seems to be a constant re-analysis to figure out exactly which wave we are in. Alot of after the fact analysis and readjustment along the way, all the while trying to claim an I told you so mentality. http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=3145803 From what I can tell, it accounts for anything and everything, and no matter what happens, it can be justified by simply changing your claim on what part of the wave cycle you're on. For instance, The third wave is coming, but instead of last week being the beginning of the apex, it was a minor ripple oscillation and the third wave is still coming. It's full-proof really, like religion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 24, 2010 Author Share Posted August 24, 2010 Even though you say it's not important, it seems to me the fatal flaw in the EWT (admittedly the little that I understand it) is in the timing. There seems to be a constant re-analysis to figure out exactly which wave we are in. Alot of after the fact analysis and readjustment along the way, all the while trying to claim an I told you so mentality. Is there any market forecasting tool that does predict the timing of market turns? The timing doesn't really matter if you know the trend and where we are at within that trend. If you know we are in a counter-trend wave 2 within a bigger downward trend, why do you need to be able to know exactly when the next wave down (wave 3) will begin? While it would be great to time your trade to the day, it's not that important. Another reason why the timing doesn't matter is because you can closely determine what price each wave will reach because of the rules within the EWT and using fibonacci ratios. I've said all along that any market forecasting is only probablistic - there is never 100% certainty. It must be human nature to want the answer to everything, the EWT does not provide all the answers. It does, however, provide the most accurate roadmap for the market, imo. It's not something that should get people angry. I'm trying to help people see what I see - if you don't see it, that's fine but don't crucify me for it (not you particularly, grunge). To me, it's clear but I understand for most it is not. It's ok to have varrying opinions, it's not ok to make me out to be a bad guy when all I'm doing is providing analysis on the stock market. If I'm guilty of anything, it's being a little too ambitious in the timing of my call early on. I have since admitted such but it does not change my outlook on the market. In fact, the market is moving exactly as forecasted, just not as quickly as I initially thought. Do what you want with your investments, I truly wish most of you the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted August 25, 2010 Share Posted August 25, 2010 Happy, happy! Joy, joy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 I'm done now - see you in another few months when the market is decidedly lower than it is today - 8500 range (dow) and probably lower. :wave: hi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 My portfolio is pretty happy these days. Feeling good about pumping in extra $$$ over the summer the couple times we hit 1050 or less on the S&P 500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-04/w...-companies.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-04/w...-companies.html That is not very encouraging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 (edited) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-04/w...-companies.html That is not very encouraging. Per Whomper Edited October 5, 2010 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 :wave: hi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 That is not very encouraging. What did you expect from doomarc ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 What did you expect from doomarc ? What did you expect from Perch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 (edited) What did you expect from doomarc ? What did you expect from Perch? This is literally what I expected from you two. Edited October 5, 2010 by evil_gop_liars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 What did you expect from datruthmarc ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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