My theory on Kevin Smith

[Trots]

Is it possible that the Lions gave the majority of work to Rudi in week 3, in order to gauge whether he still had anything left? They brought in a collection of stiffs and worked them out the prior week. My guess is that they have seen enough now to keep Rudi as the backup and Kevin Smith will resume his starting duties. There is no way that after 2 weeks, the Lions could change course and want Rudi Johnson as their starting RB. Then again, we are talking about the Lions.

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I do own Kevin Smith and expect decent numbers from him later in the year as the offense and the entire team are now relieved of the burden of one Mathew Millen.

[Savage Beatings]

I think it's all about the usual rookie problems with picking up blocks, etc. Especially now with Kitna injured, they are going to need to protect their next QB even more so. I bet they keep Rudi in as starter just for that reason alone.

[gsmayes]

As far as I can remember, Matt Millen hasn't thrown an interception or missed a block or tackle this year. There's hope for the future now that Millen is gone, but this team is still what it is, with or without Millen. The Lions should get slightly better, because they can't get any worse. But, there's an equal chance that the team quits on their lame duck coach. Anyway, I wouldn't want either running back for anything more than roster depth. Calvin Johnson is the only guy worth starting on this team.

[MrTed46]

Meh thinks Kevin Smith is done as the primary back this yr

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

i dunno how much input marinelli and the scouting department have had as far as personnel....but if smith was a millen guy...all ties are cut....not saying theyll completely abandon him.....but.....

[policyvote]

Well I think Smith is still the back for the future, but Johnson is clearly running with purpose, and has the benefit of the veteran savvy. They're pretty similar backs--north-south with wiggle, quick acceleration to a low top speed, etc. However, Johnson's a little bigger and has the vision and experience to run through smaller holes. I think if Marinelli had his druthers, each back would get 15+ carries a game, and they'd just roll two fresh power backs all game long. I think Marinelli would love to see this team win every game 24-7. Unfortunately until his defense holds up their end of the bargain, they're going to lose a lot of games 24-35.

 

For now, I'd expect a 65/35 split in favor of Rudi.

 

Peace

policy

[budlitebrad]

Rudi has been named the new starter, per Rotoworld.

[MrTed46]

Rudi has been named the new starter, per Rotoworld.

 

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit

 

Totally sucks as the only rookie RB I took a chance on was K SMith

[michaelman]

Link to that please?

[Square]

Link to that please?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...25104&id=50

[NYCDOG]

When I read (on this thread) that Rudi was named the starter, I rushed to my WW to see if he was available (which he was b/c someone dropped him this week for a bye week filler).

 

Then I looked at the Lions' remaining schedule and came to my senses. In the next 10 weeks, they face CHI twice, MIN twice, TEN, TB, CAR and JAX, Talk about brutal rushing schedule.

[Bill Swerski]

I'd say that Jason Mewes is holding him back.

[gsmayes]

My theory on Kevin Smith is that he isn't very good.

[Bananaman]

My theory on Kevin Smith is that he isn't very good.

Is that the consencous in Detroit? I own him but I havn't seen him play yet.

[Cowboyz1]

Is that the consencous in Detroit? I own him but I havn't seen him play yet.

 

 

I history tells us anything, it tells us that EX GM Millen has a difficult time drafting talent. I drafted Smith late figuring he was the last available rookie starting RB and deploying the blind squirrel theory to Millen's draft pick.

[gsmayes]

Is that the consencous in Detroit? I own him but I havn't seen him play yet.

 

I think the reaction to Kevin Smith has been a resounding meh. I heard on the radio yesterday from a Lions insider that he's still young and hasn't developed a "man's" body yet. In the 49ers game Rudi was by far the better runner; more explosive, hitting the hole decisively, finishing runs, etc. All I know is, in the year of the explosive rookie running back, the Lions ended up with a plodder instead of a game changer.

[chodan]

So does this mean hes droppable? A #2 RB in detroit is like #4 RB on a decent team. I'm very tempted to pick up Torain over this chump that cost me a 5th rd pick.

[MrTed46]

So does this mean hes droppable? A #2 RB in detroit is like #4 RB on a decent team. I'm very tempted to pick up Torain over this chump that cost me a 5th rd pick.

 

I might drop him for Duece

[Trots]

Bump

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What's the word on Kevin Smith these days? Firmly entrenched and ready for a decent season?

[Egret]

Bump

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What's the word on Kevin Smith these days? Firmly entrenched and ready for a decent season?

Yup. He'll be the man running the ball in Detroit this year. I went to training camp the other day. He got the goal line carries. The Lions also looked to be involving him in the passing game. Of course that was only one practice, so take it with a grain of salt. He was also the loudest player out there that I saw. He wasn't afraid to talk smack with the D.

[irish]

I think because Smith plays for the Lions that he's not getting the love he should be. He started off last year slowly because he was sharing in the beginning but he finished the year with almost a 1,000 yards rushing (975) and 8 rushing TDs on 238 carries. He was also targetted in the passing game 54 times and caught 39 of those passes for close to 300 more yards (286). So he totaled 1,262 yards, 39 receptions and 8 TDs. That's 213.1 fantasy points on the season which is an avg of 13.3 ppg. Not too shabby for a guy on an 0-16 team that was constantly playing from behind as Smith finished ranked as the 17th best fantasy RB in PPR leagues.

 

In Smith's first 8 games last season, he only had double digit carries 4 times and even in those games never had 20 carries (16 was his high through week 9). From week 10 on, Smith didn't have one-single digit carry game for the rest of the season and 6 out of 8 of those games were games in which he had at least 20 carries or more. The 2 games he didn't get 20 carries were against Tampa Bay (16) and Tennessee (12). Smith also scored 5 TDs in his final 8 games to just 3 TDs in his first 8 and finished off the year with 3 straight games of scoring a TD.

 

For the final 8 games of the season, Smith had 169 carries (21 carries per game) for 670 yards (84 yards per game) and 5 TDs. He had lower receiving totals in the 2nd half- 15 receptions (2 receptions per game) for 131 yards (16 re-yards per game) compared to 24 receptions (3 receptions per game) for 162 yards (20 re-yards per game) in the 1st half. No receiving TDs all year.

 

So now if we take Smith's 2nd half averages and extrapolate them over a full season you'd get- 338 carries for 1,340 yards and 10 rushing TDs. To go with 40 receptions 288 receiving yards and maybe throw in a receiving TD. That would total out to 1,628 total yards, 10-11 TDs and 40 receptions (378 total touches) = 262.8 - 268.8 fantasy points on the year or 16.4-16.8 fantasy points per game. Totals like that would've ranked him as the 10th best RB on the year last year.

 

Now are those totals high? Sure. But can Smith hit those marks? Maybe. I have him projected out to slightly less numbers than those numbers but still have him ranked as my 14th best RB in PPR with 1,120 ru-yards 9 ruTDs, 40 rec for 290 re-yards and 1 reTD = 1,410 total yards, 40 receptions and 10 total TDs. In a PPR format that would place him at 241 fantasy points on the year or a 15.1 per week avg.

[gilthorp]

Is there a place where I can see all your projections? You have projections on every player and instead of putting them all in seperate posts, it sure would be nice to have them in one place.

[Egret]

I think because Smith plays for the Lions that he's not getting the love he should be. He started off last year slowly because he was sharing in the beginning but he finished the year with almost a 1,000 yards rushing (975) and 8 rushing TDs on 238 carries. He was also targetted in the passing game 54 times and caught 39 of those passes for close to 300 more yards (286). So he totaled 1,262 yards, 39 receptions and 8 TDs. That's 213.1 fantasy points on the season which is an avg of 13.3 ppg. Not too shabby for a guy on an 0-16 team that was constantly playing from behind as Smith finished ranked as the 17th best fantasy RB in PPR leagues.

 

In Smith's first 8 games last season, he only had double digit carries 4 times and even in those games never had 20 carries (16 was his high through week 9). From week 10 on, Smith didn't have one-single digit carry game for the rest of the season and 6 out of 8 of those games were games in which he had at least 20 carries or more. The 2 games he didn't get 20 carries were against Tampa Bay (16) and Tennessee (12). Smith also scored 5 TDs in his final 8 games to just 3 TDs in his first 8 and finished off the year with 3 straight games of scoring a TD.

 

For the final 8 games of the season, Smith had 169 carries (21 carries per game) for 670 yards (84 yards per game) and 5 TDs. He had lower receiving totals in the 2nd half- 15 receptions (2 receptions per game) for 131 yards (16 re-yards per game) compared to 24 receptions (3 receptions per game) for 162 yards (20 re-yards per game) in the 1st half. No receiving TDs all year.

 

So now if we take Smith's 2nd half averages and extrapolate them over a full season you'd get- 338 carries for 1,340 yards and 10 rushing TDs. To go with 40 receptions 288 receiving yards and maybe throw in a receiving TD. That would total out to 1,628 total yards, 10-11 TDs and 40 receptions (378 total touches) = 262.8 - 268.8 fantasy points on the year or 16.4-16.8 fantasy points per game. Totals like that would've ranked him as the 10th best RB on the year last year.

 

Now are those totals high? Sure. But can Smith hit those marks? Maybe. I have him projected out to slightly less numbers than those numbers but still have him ranked as my 14th best RB in PPR with 1,120 ru-yards 9 ruTDs, 40 rec for 290 re-yards and 1 reTD = 1,410 total yards, 40 receptions and 10 total TDs. In a PPR format that would place him at 241 fantasy points on the year or a 15.1 per week avg.

He had a bonehead for a coach last year. The coach started Rudi Johnson ahead of him. Smith was not involved in the passing game. I'd be careful basing everything on last years numbers and not basing it on how the offense is changing this year.

[irish]

He had a bonehead for a coach last year. The coach started Rudi Johnson ahead of him. Smith was not involved in the passing game. I'd be careful basing everything on last years numbers and not basing it on how the offense is changing this year.

 

All I'm saying is that he'll be much more involved and to say that he'll have 21 carries and 2-3 receptions a game average is not really getting too crazy and IMO very attainable. You said it yourself, he had a bonehead coach who didn't use him properly, especially in the passing game and he still ranked 17th in PPR last year. I'm basing my projections and rankings on what his potential could be as a centerpiece in that offense.

[Brentastic]

Is there a place where I can see all your projections? You have projections on every player and instead of putting them all in seperate posts, it sure would be nice to have them in one place.