Bronco Billy Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 (edited) Adrian Peterson (MIN) - He's turned out to be the stud RB that many thought he would be when he entered the league last year. That said, he does have Chester Taylor, who performed very well when he had the opportunity, ready to steal carries. He doesn't have any meaningful passing game to support him (that hasn't stopped some other stud RBs from huge years, though), and possibly most importantly, the largest caveat on Peterson during the draft last year - his injury history - reared its ugly head as Peterson only posted double digit FF totals in 2 of the critical weeks 10-16 of the season. LaDainian Tomlinson - The reigning king of FF RBs, even in a "down" year last year he managed 1950 total yds, 60 catches, and 18 TDs and has missed only 1 game in his 7 year career. That said, he turns 29 on June 23rd of this year and has averaged 338 carries and 65 catches per year - over 400 touches per year for 7 years running. m While he has the body type to take this kind of work load, it's not unreasonable to ask how long his body can take this kind of workload before finally succumbing to the brutality of the game. Brian Westbrook - The latest of the scatbacks to go under-rated for years, he finally is getting his proper respect as a guy who amasses huge total yardage numbers week in & week out. He's superb in ppr leagues. But like the little guys who put up big yardage numbers, he also doesn't score as many TDs as owners would like and he's never played a 16 game season in his career. Those total yardage numbers being near or over 2000 yds is awfully hard to ignore when talking about the top FF RB though... Steven Jackson - Plainly a load, Jackson is without question the go-to guy in STL where he has shown that he can put up superb rushing & receiving numbers. He's almost like a Westbrook on steroids in his diverse skill set. The problem is that he also appears to be a large target and has shown a propensity like Peterson to getted dinged up. He appears to be every bit capable of putting up LT-type numbers, but can he stay on the field enough with his desire to take on the tough carries as much as anything else he does? Joseph Addai - The wildcard in the group. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong on him coming out in the draft and he has shown himself to be a perfect fit into the IND O. The issue with him? He seems to have the prototypical body to be a #1 RB, but Dungy insists on limiting his touches significantly and he just doesn't get enough work to fit into with upper 4 guys right now. Now if Dungy would let him increase his workload to 330-350 touches a game, he likely would rise to being at or near the top of the list. But Dungy loves his RBBC and it doesn't seem likely that he'll stop now. Then there are some longshot wildcards. Frank Gore is one - yeah, he'll be in a Martz throw-first O, but he'll get some catches and more importantly he ought to see some hugh running lanes as a 3 WR set forces the SS out of the box or even better for him forces nickle sets on opposing Ds. Larry Johnson has put up massive numbers in the past and appeared to be the heir apparent to being near the top spot to Holmes, but the O-line and passing game has fallen completely to pieces in KC - plus Edwards ran LJ into the ground 2 years ago and we all now know what that does to a RB the succesive year. Can the Chiefs rejuvenate their O-line and launch LJ back up the chart? Is there a new yound stud coming out of the ranks of what appears to be a very deep & talented 2008 RB class, or can someone step up out of nowhere and put a claim on the throne. It ought to make for some very interesting drafts this coming season. Who do you take first, and who do you move out of the top 5? Edited April 1, 2008 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Me personally, LT is #1. This reminds me a lot of how Priest was several years back. He started to become a gamble, and I just happened to draft him on the year he was down for the count. the big difference is their health. LT doesnt seem to miss much time at all... I think until LT shows otherwise, he is the safest #1 pick IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Nice analysis. But at 330-350 touches a game, I don't think Addai is going to finish the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Tomlinson Jackson Westbrook Peterson Addai Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted April 1, 2008 Author Share Posted April 1, 2008 Nice analysis. But at 330-350 touches a game, I don't think Addai is going to finish the season. There's a big difference between 330-350 carries & 330-350 touches a year. I don't think Addai could manage 330-350 carries without some health issues, but I hesitate to throw that down because I so miscalculated his ability already. But 340 touches? He could do that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 TomlinsonJackson Westbrook Peterson Addai I think one could shuffle around LT, SJax, Westbrook and AD to make the top 4. Addai, I believe, definitely does not belong in the upper echelon just yet. The only reason to put Addai at 5 is his team situation. If Addai were on the Niners, Chiefs, Skins, Bills, or Ravens... basically any team with an RB that could be ranked anywhere from 5 to 12... there would be no absolute reason to put him at 5 given his nagging injury issues. I think it's going to be another interesting year for RBs in 2008. I can see a couple more impact rookie RBs that could seriously jumble up any current list of RBs depending on who goes where. If a FF draft were to happen today (without the benefit of this year's rookies), it's enough to cause nauseau when looking at the RBs from 10 down... choices for a lower tier RB1 are not too savory at the moment. Just forget about a RB2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I think you have to at least mention Frank Gore here. In a redraft... LT Westbrook Gore AD Addai SJax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Score 1 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 I think you have to at least mention Frank Gore here. In a PPR redraft...absolutely...non PPR redraft with Mad Mike Martz runnning 49er's offensive show...not so sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 There's a big difference between 330-350 carries & 330-350 touches a year. I don't think Addai could manage 330-350 carries without some health issues, but I hesitate to throw that down because I so miscalculated his ability already. But 340 touches? He could do that... Considering he barely made it to 300 touches, I think it's fair to assume that 330-350 carries is beyond a reasonable workload for Addai. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 in a redraft I think LT is still basically the no-brainer pick, for me at least. depending on the keeper setup (contract length, etc.) I would consider peterson, but LT still get consideration as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 AD LT Westbrook McFadden Barber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Its between LT and AD for a standard redraft. AD is the most explosive offensive weapon in the league from what I saw last year. He plain makes defenses look silly. Now, I'd grab LT just because of the amazing history, but it would not be a surprise to see AD with the most points at year end. I think Westbrook will continue as a very productive yardage back, but the injury history makes it too risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Perhaps this isn't exactly in keeping with the thread, but considering Fragile Freddy's age and history, MJD could be a top-dog next year. Same with MBIII if the 'boys don't draft another back or he is made the feature guy. LT scares me now. At 29, I feel like he's "due" for some kind of injury. A/P needs to show me another year before I'd put my first-pick eggs in that basket. Westy is truly a points monster, but will he be on the field when you need him? SJax might be my guy, but I'd hesitate to invest the #1 overall in him. I'd want him at a little value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 AD LT Westbrook McFadden Barber How can a non NFL player (McFadden) be in your top 5 for a redraft? Not only has he not done anything to show he can actually play in the NFL, but you dont even know where he will land! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 If I had the #1 overall redraft pick, I just don't think I would ever use it on Westbrook. Talented yes, but too risky IMO. The others mentioned I would all consider... probably going with Adrian Peterson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 How can a non NFL player (McFadden) be in your top 5 for a redraft? Not only has he not done anything to show he can actually play in the NFL, but you dont even know where he will land! pretty much... I mean...McFadden inside your top 15 is even a hugh risk...at this point anyways...unless he falls to New England where he can get enough receiving yds to justify a top 10 ranking even in a non-PPR league....just for the yardage and the home run threat alone.. and right now I have trouble putting LT #1 because I am just waiting for the wheels to fall off one of these years but it just doesn't seem to happen... people kept saying (even in my local) that LT had a bad year last year, even after the 1st month and I looked at his fantasy numbers and he averaged over 30 pts a game.... I might put Westy #2, but his knees have cried wolf so many times that I'm too scared to put him in my top 3 right now..... I think it goes like this in a redraft LT AD SJax Westy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 How can a non NFL player (McFadden) be in your top 5 for a redraft? Not only has he not done anything to show he can actually play in the NFL, but you dont even know where he will land! Sure we do. He is going to be a Raider, will be used heavily, and is going to be a huge success. Yes, he has done plenty to show that he can actually play in the NFL. Pass on him if you want, but it is going to leave you with an eerily similar feeling if you passed on Peterson last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Sure we do. He is going to be a Raider, will be used heavily, and is going to be a huge success. Yes, he has done plenty to show that he can actually play in the NFL. Pass on him if you want, but it is going to leave you with an eerily similar feeling if you passed on Peterson last year. Ok dude. Ive seen your arguments before, and Im not touching this one. Let me know if you have any openings in any leagues you're in where I can draft right after you if you draft #4. You take McFadden, and Ill take the next guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Do I smell a bet on the horizon?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 So, sounds like the #5 spot is the one to covet in the upcoming season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturphy Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Do I smell a bet on the horizon?? Step right up y'all! Seahawks is giving away money this year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Gun to the head response is LT. I'd be very tempted to roll the dice with Peterson at #1 or #2. I don't imagine him lasting past #3. I might go with Jackson @ #2.....Westbrook, maybe @ #4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peepinmofo Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 Do I smell a bet on the horizon?? If the bet is McFadden finishes in the top 5 of RBs, then absolutely you have a bet. Top 5 fantasy, or top 5 NFL? Whats the bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted April 1, 2008 Share Posted April 1, 2008 If the bet is McFadden finishes in the top 5 of RBs, then absolutely you have a bet. Top 5 fantasy, or top 5 NFL? Whats the bet? I'll bet he won't be 1/5th the RB Ray Rice will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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