Who is the #1 redraft RB right now?

[Savage Beatings]

Here is my early top 10 (will probably change it up as the pre-season shakes out)...

 

1) L. Tomlinson

2) A. Peterson

3) S. Jackson

4) L. Johnson (makes me nervous here, but still...)

5) J. Addai

6) C. Portis

7) B. Westbrook (this far down because of injury history)

8) M. Lynch

9) F. Gore (faded last year, plus Martz in SF now)

10) R. Grant

 

Waiting in the wings to move up... McGahee, Barber, Bush, ???

[Bronco Billy]

BB -- Furd was giving you a little chit about your mis-type in the original post.

 

And rightfully so.

 

BB = moran

 

[Bronco Billy]

4) L. Johnson (makes me nervous here, but still...)

 

Yikes! No legit QB, no real passing threat, and a significantly depleted O-line that they are trying to piece-meal back together. Add to that a reduction of 2nd half work as KC has to pass to catch up in games, and I see a long fall for LJ from what he was a couple of years ago. He'll se at least 8 in the box a lot in the first half and shouldn't get enough 2nd half carries. Bad combination.

Edited April 14, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[Savage Beatings]

Yikes! No legit QB, no real assing threat, and a significantly depleted O-line that they are trying to piece-meal back together. Add to that a reduction of 2nd half work as KC has to pass to catch up in games, and I see a long fall for LJ from what he was a couple of years ago. He'll se at least 8 in the box a lot in the first half and shouldn't get enough 2nd half carries. Bad combination.

 

Well, I even note that this rank makes me nervous, and that it's an early ranking subject to changes... basically, if the team is looking good early on, then his talent warrants an early pick... if his supporting cast doesn't improve, then he slides down. For now, that's where I've got him sitting though.

[Atlanta Cracker]

If I had the #1 pick in a redraft at this moment, I'm taking LT. The biggest, most common fantasy curse is an injury to your 1st-round running back. Almost all of the top guys have some sort of injury concern...except LT. Yeah, he's 29. So? Historically, that's still about a year and a half before RBs fall off the productivity cliff. NEXT year is the year to avoid Tomlinson. This year, I'll still take the safe money.

 

 

I was just thinking that this year could easily pan out where people avoid LT in the first round being "cautious" and get burned hard. Then next year he's consensus #1 by a mile and lays an egg. I don't remember the exact years or #'s but kind of reminds me of Marshall Faulk's decline.

[keggerz]

Yikes! No legit QB, no real passing threat, and a significantly depleted O-line that they are trying to piece-meal back together. Add to that a reduction of 2nd half work as KC has to pass to catch up in games, and I see a long fall for LJ from what he was a couple of years ago. He'll se at least 8 in the box a lot in the first half and shouldn't get enough 2nd half carries. Bad combination.

fwiw, LJ fell to 24th overall(13th RB) in the ATAP veteran dynasty draft

[Avernus]

Here is my early top 10 (will probably change it up as the pre-season shakes out)...

 

1) L. Tomlinson

2) A. Peterson

3) S. Jackson

4) L. Johnson (makes me nervous here, but still...)

5) J. Addai

6) C. Portis

7) B. Westbrook (this far down because of injury history)

8) M. Lynch

9) F. Gore (faded last year, plus Martz in SF now)

10) R. Grant

 

Waiting in the wings to move up... McGahee, Barber, Bush, ???

 

I'm not sure LJ cracks my top 10...at best I'd move everyone up and put him 10th...and Portis after Westy at best, but a lot of people will put him that high and there's nothing wrong with that at all...

 

IMO of course....even though I'll be winning all my leagues this year

[rattsass]

I'm not sure LJ cracks my top 10...at best I'd move everyone up and put him 10th...and Portis after Westy at best, but a lot of people will put him that high and there's nothing wrong with that at all...

 

IMO of course....even though I'll be winning all my leagues this year

No way I would take LJ over Addai, that much I am sure of. I agree, LJ's value has taken a huge hit. I look for him to be a late first / early second rounder this year. Of course, things could change a lot between now and August.

 

I think there is a case to be made for drafting Tomlinson first yet again. But I think the lure of the "new stud" will be in effect and I am thinking Peterson ends up going first in the majority of drafts.

 

Gun to my head, right now I would probably go Tomlinson, Peterson, Addai, SJax, Westbrook. But like I said, facts and opinions change a lot between now and the draft.

[Bronco Billy]

I'm surprised that MB III doesn't consistently crack the top 5.

 

What am I missing?

 

The likelihood that DAL doesn't consider him a featured RB and they draft a RB more talented than Julius Jones was to pair with him.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I'm surprised that MB III doesn't consistently crack the top 5.

 

What am I missing?

 

 

Just personal opinions, I guess. Most people expect the 'Boys to draft a RB pretty high that will take carries, keeping him from the top 5. I would think he would still be around 10 though.

 

I had the same thoughts on Maroney. There was a lot of man-love going around for him last season, then he got dinged in preseason, shared time, and missed a couple of games. After that his supporters are non-existant. Why? He's not any less talented now than last year. He's more seasoned. And I think he showed us his toughness and ability to run between the tackles late in the season and in the playoffs.

 

I'm not expecting top 5 numbers, but I think he's a fringe top 10 guy this year at worst--with potential to finish around top 5 if he gets the opportunities he was getting to end the year for a full season. With an aging Faulk and Morris, I expect we are going to see 250-300 touches this year for him (after 197 in '06 and 189 in '07)...

[MikesVikes]

Just personal opinions, I guess. Most people expect the 'Boys to draft a RB pretty high that will take carries, keeping him from the top 5. I would think he would still be around 10 though.

 

I had the same thoughts on Maroney. There was a lot of man-love going around for him last season, then he got dinged in preseason, shared time, and missed a couple of games. After that his supporters are non-existant. Why? He's not any less talented now than last year. He's more seasoned. And I think he showed us his toughness and ability to run between the tackles late in the season and in the playoffs.

 

I'm not expecting top 5 numbers, but I think he's a fringe top 10 guy this year at worst--with potential to finish around top 5 if he gets the opportunities he was getting to end the year for a full season. With an aging Faulk and Morris, I expect we are going to see 250-300 touches this year for him (after 197 in '06 and 189 in '07)...

 

I'd put MB III in or close to the top ten. As far as LJ goes, I wouldn't hesitate to have him on a roster as I think he could be a very decent value pick.

[kingfish247]

I'd put MB III in or close to the top ten. As far as LJ goes, I wouldn't hesitate to have him on a roster as I think he could be a very decent value pick.

+1

Yeah the Chiefs are in shambles at OL and QB but LJ's value as a feature runner can't be denied. There are just too few feature RBs left at this point to let LJ fall past the round 1/round 2 turn.

[Egret]

In the first round, you take the safest bet. LT has the history and is the safest bet. You don't win usually win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose it with your pick. Championships are made later in the draft.

[McBoog]

I was just thinking that this year could easily pan out where people avoid LT in the first round being "cautious" and get burned hard. Then next year he's consensus #1 by a mile and lays an egg. I don't remember the exact years or #'s but kind of reminds me of Marshall Faulk's decline.

 

Just where do you see a decline?

 

Last year there was a new coaching staff and a change in the philosophy of how the offense was run (not the offense itself). Once Turner finally got the buy in from the team added to the addition of Chambers, the O was rolling well and LT still fininshed as the top RB in FF.

 

To expect the same record breaking type season year after year is not rational.

 

Durability?

 

Last year, LT gets hurt in the playoffs with an injury that Faulk himself said he had earlier in his career and was not able to play on. It healed and he still shreadded Ds for a few more years before the decline started. LT misses ONE playoff game in his carreer and his durability comes into play? I think he has missed TWO games in his whole career. Yes, the age, number of touches and hits are piling up and it is worth keeping an eye on, but casting doubt at this point, IMO, is premature!

 

There has not bee a more consistant FF performer in the last five years and until you actually see the decline start, I don't think it is smart to try to forecast it. LT takes care of himself better than 99% of The League players and will be fine for the coming season. Some may say that he does not have Turner behind him this year and he will wear down faster. The reality is that Turner was used less last year than he was in LTs amazing previous year. The injury was not one from being tired/worn down, it came from a hit and twist on the knee, one that probably would have injured anyone. Remember the immediate pain from the hit caused him to fumble, a rarity for LT. This as much as anything told me that it was not "just a ding" when it happened.

 

Based on Turner now having the team for a second year, buy-in from the team from game one, a mid-season tweak to the O-line that worked, the history of consistancy and the fact there is not a proven #2 behind him (more playing time?), I think you have to consider him still the safest number 1 out there and ride that horse until he proves that he can't be ridden any longer. Remember, you need him to get through the NFL regular season, not the NFL playoffs.

[Guest Chappy]

Just where do you see a decline?

 

Last year there was a new coaching staff and a change in the philosophy of how the offense was run (not the offense itself). Once Turner finally got the buy in from the team added to the addition of Chambers, the O was rolling well and LT still fininshed as the top RB in FF.

 

To expect the same record breaking type season year after year is not rational.

 

Durability?

 

Last year, LT gets hurt in the playoffs with an injury that Faulk himself said he had earlier in his career and was not able to play on. It healed and he still shreadded Ds for a few more years before the decline started. LT misses ONE playoff game in his carreer and his durability comes into play? I think he has missed TWO games in his whole career. Yes, the age, number of touches and hits are piling up and it is worth keeping an eye on, but casting doubt at this point, IMO, is premature!

 

There has not bee a more consistant FF performer in the last five years and until you actually see the decline start, I don't think it is smart to try to forecast it. LT takes care of himself better than 99% of The League players and will be fine for the coming season. Some may say that he does not have Turner behind him this year and he will wear down faster. The reality is that Turner was used less last year than he was in LTs amazing previous year. The injury was not one from being tired/worn down, it came from a hit and twist on the knee, one that probably would have injured anyone. Remember the immediate pain from the hit caused him to fumble, a rarity for LT. This as much as anything told me that it was not "just a ding" when it happened.

 

Based on Turner now having the team for a second year, buy-in from the team from game one, a mid-season tweak to the O-line that worked, the history of consistancy and the fact there is not a proven #2 behind him (more playing time?), I think you have to consider him still the safest number 1 out there and ride that horse until he proves that he can't be ridden any longer. Remember, you need him to get through the NFL regular season, not the NFL playoffs.

 

I have LT as the #1 overall pick in any type of league because he's the complete package. By complete package I don't just mean skill-set, it also includes injury history (being solid) and history of being very consistently productive. However, when it comes to PPR leagues, I believe the statement above is incorrect as Westbrook finished as the #1 RB overall by a little over 4 points. However, take away PPR and LT was the best by about 25 points. Other than Westy (and I feel he won't have another year like last year) I honestly feel that the only RBs that can compete with LT for the #1 overall RB spot are SJax and ADP.

[NAUgrad]

Just personal opinions, I guess. Most people expect the 'Boys to draft a RB pretty high that will take carries, keeping him from the top 5. I would think he would still be around 10 though.

 

I had the same thoughts on Maroney. There was a lot of man-love going around for him last season, then he got dinged in preseason, shared time, and missed a couple of games. After that his supporters are non-existant. Why? He's not any less talented now than last year. He's more seasoned. And I think he showed us his toughness and ability to run between the tackles late in the season and in the playoffs.

 

I'm not expecting top 5 numbers, but I think he's a fringe top 10 guy this year at worst--with potential to finish around top 5 if he gets the opportunities he was getting to end the year for a full season. With an aging Faulk and Morris, I expect we are going to see 250-300 touches this year for him (after 197 in '06 and 189 in '07)...

I for one thought Maroney was going to be a stud last year. The problem wasn't that he was hurt or missed a few games. The problem was that they never gave him the ball. I expect that to continue this year as they believe that Brady can win any game without anyone else. Maroney will probably average less than 13 carries a game, thus he is not a top 10 prospect. Until I see that change. He stays mid teens if not lower in my mind.

[yo mama]

Gun to my head, right now I would probably go Tomlinson, Peterson, Addai, SJax, Westbrook. But like I said, facts and opinions change a lot between now and the draft.

Yup, that's my top 5.

[Reverand2Cent]

LT all the way baby he had a down year last year and it was still great i look for him to elevate his game this year ...if it can be A.P will not make it through the first 5 games

[Swiss Cheezhead]

McBoog -- I don't think AC was saying the decline has already started; I think he was saying that the hypothetical decline (a year away) would remind him of what went on with Faulk.

 

So, you can step away from your LT shrine and come back to rational discussion now.

[McBoog]

McBoog -- I don't think AC was saying the decline has already started; I think he was saying that the hypothetical decline (a year away) would remind him of what went on with Faulk.

 

So, you can step away from your LT shrine and come back to rational discussion now.

 

 

 

Ummm, I got that. But, why would you predict an incredible year followed by a sudden downfall? There have been no indications that his body is falling apart yet.

 

What about my post said anything that was not rational? Was I insulting in any way?

 

I still think he is the safest #1 and will be for a few more years.

[MrTed46]

I am not high on SJax this year. That team is getting worst and worst...I really think people are going to be disappointed.

 

I know LJ is having team problems as well but I think he will get his #s because of the TDs he will get..just a hunch.

 

I put Portis above both of them this year.

[peepinmofo]

I am not high on SJax this year. That team is getting worst and worst...I really think people are going to be disappointed.

 

I know LJ is having team problems as well but I think he will get his #s because of the TDs he will get..just a hunch.

 

I put Portis above both of them this year.

SJax disappointed with injuries last year, but when he played, he was good behind a horrid OL. No way does he disappoint unless he gets hurt. Just my thoughts... While I like Portis, I think he is a tier below SJax, especially if they draft Jake Long....

[i_am_the_swammi]

I am not high on SJax this year. That team is getting worst and worst...I really think people are going to be disappointed.

 

Totally disagree.

 

the whole offensive unit was nicked and dinged last year (Bulger, SJax & Holt, as well as the ENTIRE OL). That lack of continuity hurt the run-blocking, for sure. My biggest fear with Sjax is the Rams defense. They still haven't fixed some major holes, and they are destined to be playing 2nd-half catch-up football yet again, unless they get some major helop between now and August.

 

Like the end of last year, I see alot of 70-80 yard 1st halves for SJax, followed by 20-30 yard 2nd halves. Still top-5 production since he will get 12-14 TDs....and if the Rams can fix their defensive woes (or at least score enough to play from ahead), they SJax could very well end up the top RB overall this year.

 

he is a beast.

[MrTed46]

Totally disagree.

 

the whole offensive unit was nicked and dinged last year (Bulger, SJax & Holt, as well as the ENTIRE OL). That lack of continuity hurt the run-blocking, for sure. My biggest fear with Sjax is the Rams defense. They still haven't fixed some major holes, and they are destined to be playing 2nd-half catch-up football yet again, unless they get some major helop between now and August.

 

Like the end of last year, I see alot of 70-80 yard 1st halves for SJax, followed by 20-30 yard 2nd halves. Still top-5 production since he will get 12-14 TDs....and if the Rams can fix their defensive woes (or at least score enough to play from ahead), they SJax could very well end up the top RB overall this year.

 

he is a beast.

 

Now that I think about it your right the Oline was all hurt...maybe I am wrong or maybe I am biased as I drafted SJax for first time in a re-draft league last yr.

 

I tend to be wrong more than I am right.

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I tend to be wrong more than I am right.

 

 

Don't hear that around here often! Ever actually.

 

Reminds me of Seinfeld: "If every instinct you've ever had was wrong.....then the opposite...would have to be right....."

Edited April 17, 2008 by ROYALWITCHEESE