And for my 13,000 post

[cliaz]

Wow, how luck are you all that I have graced every-one's life with my witty humor and vastly superior knowledge on everything from football down to toenails for 13,000 posts? I mean, outside of your kids and spouses, I am the most loved person in your lives. I wanted to celebrate this milestone here at the huddle by really creating something cool. Now topping my 12,000 post thread was a daunting process and I spent many months working on this because, let’s be honest, I’m an attention whore and you all love this whore so you demand only the best from me. But in reality I wanted to do something that was intellectual, had a lot of critical thinking applied to it and something that would be interesting to read regardless of what your personal or professional interests are.

 

So finally I decided why not share some of the knowledge I have earned during my degree progression. For those of you who do not know what I went to school for - Bachelor of Science in Emergency Management with a focus on biological/nuclear/chemical hazards and contingency planning. I went through natural disasters and terrorism scenarios but nothing really jumped out at me. Either it has been played out in the media such as the earthquake and Tsunami in Japan or I figured most people wouldn’t be interested in how public policy like SARA Title III or the Superfund Act impact each of your daily lives. So finally, after sitting back one night watching reruns of The Walking Dead on my DVR it dawned on me (no pun intended) - why not present the tailgers here with a deadly pandemic influenza scenario on the same level as the 1918 Spanish flu and then walk you all through how it could play out in modern times starting from the global stage all the way down to your front door.

 

I mean, everyone loves a good pandemic, right? So, without further adieu for Milestone Post 13,000 I give you:

 

H5N1 Pandemic Influenza (Avian Flu) 2011

 

First, you must have a basic understanding of influenza viruses and specifically the Avian flu virus. There are 3 types/classes of influenza virus - Type A, B & C. Influenza A virus can infect both humans and animals. Birds can be infected with any type of influenza A virus while only certain strains of A viruses can infect humans and other animals (only humans can be infected by Type B & C). An influenza virus is round in shape and has all of these spikes coming off of the virus. These spikes are known as Glycoproteins and there are two in particular that are very important to understand - Haemagglutinin and Neuraminidase. There are many different types of Haemagglutinin and Neuraminidase and scientist have named them as H1, H2, H3 for Haemagglutinin and N1, N2, N3, ect for Neuraminidase. This is what gives us names for the different viruses - H1N1, ect.

 

The Haemagglutinin is what the virus uses to attach itself to a cell and after the virus is attached the H also is responsible for the fusion of a cell's endosomal membrane with the viral membrane allowing it to inject it's instructions for replication. Neuraminidase, at it's basic, is what the virus uses to push itself away from a cell. The higher the H number tends to mean the more aggressive (not sure if that is the right word) a virus will be within our bodies.

 

When exposed to a virus our bodies produce antibodies to fight the intruders and these antibodies are specific to that type of virus. When our bodies produce antibodies to fight off a virus they attach themselves to the Haemagglutinin which prevents the virus from being able to attack a cell. This slows down the virus’ invasion of our cells and allows for our other defensive cells to catch up and cleans our systems of the invaders. If you are expose to a new virus our bodies are slow to mount a response because our immune system doesn’t have the instructions for combating the new virus and needs time to mount an assault so we would be at the mercy of the full effects from a new virus subtype.

 

The virus that will be used for this post is known as H5N1or The Avain flu virus. It has the ability to mutate over time (which makes it dangerous) and there are two types of mutations: Antigenic Drift & Antigenic Shift. Antigenic Drift is the reason why we have annual flu vaccinations. It is a process where a virus slightly modifies its surface Glycoproteins and when this happens the immune system will be fooled by the slight change and will be unable to fully protect the body. Antigenic Shift is where a virus changes its surface proteins dramatically to produce a completely new virus. An Antigenic shift is only possible in influenza A virus. This is what would cause a pandemic.

 

The anatomy of a Pandemic:

What is a pandemic? According to Webster’s online:

 

[An epidemic] : occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population

 

Or:

 

"A pandemic is basically a global epidemic -- an epidemic that spreads to more than one continent," says Dan Epstein, a spokesman for the Pan American Health Organization, a regional office of the World Health Organization.”

 

Yes, these are both valid definitions of what pandemic means but what are some of the mechanics of the process? Well...

 

A pandemic doesn’t not equal a deadly, uber virus sweeping the global killing everyone in a few months. Think of the HIV virus and how slowly it progresses until a patient is considered to have aids...HIV is a pandemic...the same for Malaria even though it is a blood parasite.

 

A pandemic will come in waves, historically a primary wave followed up by a secondary and tertiary wave.

 

A pandemic outbreak in any given community will last about 6 to 8 weeks for each wave

 

Multiple waves of illness could occur with each wave lasting two to three months - historically, the largest waves have occurred in the fall and winter, but the seasonality of a pandemic cannot be predicted with certainty

 

The stages of a pandemic should occur sequentially, though they may overlap or occur so rapidly as to appears to be occurring simultaneously or being skipped.

 

Over the past 300 years of recorded history there have been 10 pandemics recorded; averaging 1 every 30 years. In the last century we have had 3 not including the 'Swine Flu' or H1N1 pandemic in 2009:

 

1918/1919 H1N1 Spanish Flu

-Overall infection rate of 25% to 50% (estimates)

-Estimated 40 million deaths in less than a year (548,000 in the US)

-Estimated that over the course of the pandemic, 100 million people were killed globally

-High mortality rate in younger age groups

 

1957/1958 H2N2 Asian Flu

-25-30% infection rate

-Estimated 2 million deaths (70,000 in the US)

 

1968/1969 H3N2 Hong Kong Flu

-20-25% infection rate

-Estimated 1 million deaths (34,000 in the US)

-No worst than the seasonal flu

 

 

Pandemic Scenario:

 

The following pandemic will begin in the early fall of 2011. This scenario has been developed from 3 live, table top exercises I participated in between 2008 and 2010 w/local, county, state and federal emergency management organizations and department of homeland security consultants as well as an H1N1 pandemic table top exercise at work and my course work and, of course, fictional and non-fictional literature. For the record, at the time this is posted I have NOT gone to see Cotangent.

 

Everyone reading this post lives in the town of DMDville in south eastern Texas with a population of 38,000 residents. As this post pulls back from the global stage down to the local stage, governmental response agencies will not be listed as it becomes too convoluted.

 

 

Inter-Pandemic Period: Weeks 1 - 6 (Sept 1 - Oct 7, 2011)

 

In Guangxi, China farmers from a remote village have found hundreds of dead or dying birds scattered over a 20 mile area and contact their regional government representative. The local government dispatches officials to investigate the situation but prevent the news from being reported in the state run media. Chinese local government does not issues any mandatory restrictions for buying, housing or selling of chickens or ducks as it has seen these dead bird flocks before in the past and nothing ever materialized from it. As the weeks progress more dead birds are found throughout the region including two dozen chickens at a local farm. After trying to handle the situation internally China contacts The World Health Organization (WHO) and expresses its concerns about the dead wild birds.

 

The WHO arrives in China and escorted to the region to collect samples and it is confirmed that what is killing the birds is a form of H5N1 (Asian strain); however, it doesn’t appear to be infectious to humans. The WHO set up a field office which is overseen by the Chinese government and begins gathering more data and tracking the progression of the spread of H5N1 within the geographic region. Of concern is that most of the birds found are migratory and heading south for the upcoming fall and winter months in the northern hemisphere. When the migratory birds fly south towards the Korean peninsula, Vietnam, Laos, ect the new subtype of H5N1 has a high probability of spreading among the indigenous bird populations in those countries. There is simply no way to properly contain the spread of the bird-to-bird transmission of H5N1 based on these findings. And because of the high rate of poor farmers and tribal groups in the remote parts of these countries, the chances are high of a wild bird infecting a chicken and a farmers/tribal leader either not see the danger, not appreciated the possible threat or ignoring the potential dangers of eating/slaughtering/trading infected birds or simply choose to ignore the signs.

 

The WHO raises it’s Pandemic Alert Phases from 1 (no new influenza virus/threats) to Phase 2: “No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.” The Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the US receives the alert and begins monitoring the situation while alerting The Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS in turn begins preliminary steps for monitoring the situation as it is related to homeland security issues (e.g. people arriving to the US from areas of the world like Asian and the Middle East) but keeps the news quite from the media and the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) is brought in to the loop.

 

Summary of Federal Response for Phase 2:

 

The Federal Government Pandemic Response Stage remains at 0 - New domestic animal outbreak in at-risk country

 

CDC is notified of the incident

 

CDC notifies DHS

 

CDC begins contacting major pharmaceutical corporations regarding their levels of anti-viral medication production and stock piles

 

CDC & DHS begin reviewing US stockpiles of anti-viral medications

 

DHS adds the incident to the national security briefing for the President

 

DHS activates monitoring procedures for immigration and international travel entry points and issues travel advisories for the region

 

DHS alerts FEMA and FEMA begins preliminary monitoring steps

 

DHS places this on the President’s daily national security briefing

 

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services is alerted as well and beings dialog and coordination with the CDC and DHS

 

 

Pandemic Alert Period: Weeks 7 - 9 (Oct 8 - Oct 31 )

 

Reports coming out of Yuhhan, China are that a dozen workers from a local farmers market have fallen ill with high fevers and breathing problems. Several family members of these workers are also reporting minor flu like symptoms. The WHO along with Chinese medical advisers travel to the region and begin treating the sick, searching the surrounding area for dead birds and collecting samples for testing. It is confirmed that the farmers did not eat potentially infected chickens or wild fowl but have been handling live stock. Further investigation reveals that the family members of the farmers neither ate or handled infected chickens but because of the close proximity to the chickens that these family members live around it is believed they contracted it directly from the animals. At this point there is no direct evidence that there has been a human-to-human transfer of the new H5N1 virus but the possibility exists due to family members becoming ill.

 

The test results show that the individuals handling the birds and those where it couldn’t be definitively proven that they did not touch any birds have H5N1 virus but it doesn’t appear that it is transmittable via human-to-human at this time. Chinese officials begin filtering the news coming out of the regions to downplay the concerns within their country. China sends out a notification to a few of the surrounding countries that it shares a border with but, again, filters the news of the situation. China is then contacted by some of these surrounding countries inquiring for a status on what China has done up to this point. China continues to downplay the situation with its neighbors; however the WHO is following all proper protocol for reporting and the situation eventually makes mainstream international news.

 

The WHO raises its Pandemic Alert Phase to 3: “Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.” The area is quarantined as best as can be given the location and resources. Farmers throughout the Yuhhan and Guangxi regions are ordered by the Chinese government to destroy all live stock birds. Local farmers markets are also ordered closed until further notice which cripples the poorer communities within the two regions. Farmers are cutoff from selling their crops and livestock which leads to some communities to hold off destroying their chickens as they may need these birds to sustain them while they are barred from going to market.

 

North Korea relies on some of the agriculture from those regions to feed its northern population. North Korea expresses its concerns over this in its usual fashion by sending troops to both the DMZ and specific areas along the Chinese border - stating that it is doing so to protect its population from these migrating fowl. North Korean soldiers are ordered to shoot all birds flying overhead. China is not happy with the response from Korean nor is South Korea, the USA and the UN. However, at this point, they are doing exactly what they said they were going to do and shoot down every bird they see in the sky. Tension on the Korean peninsula are running high at this point.

 

Summary of Federal Response for Phase 3:

 

The Federal Government Pandemic Response Stage moves to 1 - Suspected human outbreak overseas

 

CDC situation update: summary of weekly FluView report captures this new animal-to-human jump of H5N1

Link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/summary.htm

 

CDC reviews the National Inventory of Core Capabilities for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and response

Link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/n...apabilities.pdf

 

CDC notifies DHS of the change in status

 

CDC situation update: summary of weekly FluView report captures this new animal-to-human jump of H5N1

Link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/summary.htm

 

CDC reviews the National Inventory of Core Capabilities for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and response

Link: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/n...apabilities.pdf

 

DHS updates the incident to the national security briefing for the President

 

DHS activates further monitoring procedures for immigration and international travel entry points and updates applicable stakeholders of the change in status

 

DHS activates the National Strategy for Pandemic Flu

 

DHS begins activating the alert teams for the National Critical Infrastructure Pandemic Plan

Link: http://www.flu.gov/professional/pdf/cikrpa...luenzaguide.pdf

 

DHS alerts FEMA and FEMA begins reviewing and auditing contingency plans, supply stocks and federal grant monies/funding for supplies needed at the county/parish and local level

 

DHS/FEMA/CDC begin alerting the following:

 

DHS = State level Homeland Security Agencies & Governors

FEMA = State level emergency management organizations & SERC commissions

CDC = State level Department of Healths

 

Travel advisories are issued for the regions infected with this new virus

 

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services is brought in to begin consultation with DHS, CDC, FEMA and other federal agencies

 

Pandemic Alert Period: Weeks 10 - 14 (Nov 1 - Nov 26)

 

The communities around the farmers markets throughout the Yuhhan and Guangxi regions begin reporting incidents where individuals that have not handled or eaten chickens are becoming symptomatic; however, the fevers are running dangerously high compared to the original infected group. After 2 weeks the WHO has confirmation that this new virus subtype has begun claiming the lives of the young and old and those with compromised immune systems. Out of the estimated 85 people that have contracted the new H5N1 subtype through possible human vector, 17 have died. China further loosens it’s media grip and allows for a more detailed yet filtered version of events to be reported on through its state run media. The WHO continues to press China for more openness with its reports but China refuses.

 

Reports begin coming in from South Korea, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Kazakhstain and India that similar dead bird flocks were discovered and dozens of local farmers and market workers are turning up sick with the same symptoms as the second group from China (the sub-type with the high fever which claimed the lives of 17 people). The WHO send in teams to investigate and discover that there are limited human-to-human infection occurring but they are contained to the local region. The WHO raises it’s alert to Pandemic Alert Phase 4: "Small clusters(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans."

 

Brazil, Peru, and Southern Mexico begin reporting ‘epidemic’ of a flu bug. This is unusual since during this period it is late spring/early summer time in the southern hemisphere and therefore a low flu risk. People are reporting to hospitals with high fevers and severe respiratory infections. The WHO is dispatched to the South and Central American countries to collect samples and begin investigating the situations. After a week It is confirmed by WHO that these individuals have been inflected with the human-to-human strain of the new virus subtype. With assistance from the US, UN and WHO an extensive investigation begins to determine how this H5N1 subtype managed to jump continents. While it was a foregone conclusion as to how crossed the ocean, it is determined specifically that a buyer for a healthy/organic super market chain in the US traveled to Thailand, South Korea, India, Brazil, Chili and Peru on business recently. Documentation shows that on his return trip from Asia the buyer flew in to Peru and over to Brazil for business then flew from South America to Mexico, arrived in LA for a layover then flew to Tennessee and drove back up to Chicago.

 

Another week passes by and the reports coming from South and Central America is that there is a fatality rate of 20% from this virus - mainly contained to the young, elderly and those with compromised immune systems. However, what throws up the red flags is that of the 20% that have died from this new virus, 7% are between the ages of 16 and 30 - traditionally the healthier demography of a population that normally recover from a flu faster and with less severe symptoms. The WHO begins working with each of the countries medical communities to begin medical surveillance and screening. During this period the WHO is able to provide more accurate data on the infection rate. At this point, this new virus is on the same level as the flu outbreak of 1958 with an inflection rate of roughly 36% but the mortality rate is much higher. The symptoms of this human-to-human transmittable H5N1 virus are ranging from conjunctivitis, fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches to severe respiratory illness such as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and viral pneumonia and in the more moderate to severe cases - accompanied by nausea, diarrhea, severe vomiting and hemoptysis (coughing up blood or blood-stained sputum from the bronchi, larynx, trachea or lungs). People who die from the complications of this virus tend to have had an average temperature of 103*.

 

 

Summary of Federal & State Response for Phase 4

 

The Federal Government Pandemic Response Stage moves to 2 - Confirmed human outbreak overseas

 

CDC activates it's Pandemic Influenza contingency plans and Pandemic Severity Index

 

CDC begins coordinating the disbursement of anti-virtual medication to critical groups (e.g. national guard, federal and government leaders, US military and emergency first responders)

 

DHS activate the Continuity of Government for Pandemic Influenza and Devolution of Authority

 

State Governments begin activating their Continuity of Operations for Pandemic Influenza

 

National Guard are placed on alert

 

US military is placed on alert with some being stationed along the Canadian and Mexico border

 

FEMA begins coordinating with CDC/DHS and state officials for deployment of temporary housing for the quarantined or for the spill over from hospitals

 

FEMA/CDC/State commissions begin working with hospitals to review and prepare for activating their mass care/casualty plans

 

Significant media coverage occurs in the presumed US infected zones where this buyer had traveled through.

 

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) activates its Part 1, the HHS Strategic Plan for public health and medical support in the event of a pandemic

 

The national response plan (NPR) is activate and the National Incident Management System (NIMS) system put in place at the federal level

 

18 of the major, international airports in the US begin flu screening using a passive surveillance system (visual inspection). With 18 of these airports activating their passive surveillance procedures, an estimate 85% of all international travel to the US is being covered.

 

 

From this point on, this milestone post will primarily focus on the US:

 

Pandemic Alert Period: Weeks 15 - 17 (Nov 27 - Dec 9)

 

As the media begins ramping up the coverage of the new flu bug H5N1, the general population still underestimates the severity of the situation and many go about their daily lives as normal. Children, historical the best method for passing the flu virus around, going into school where teachers, administrators, janitors and others employed by school districts have the potential to become infected. Garbage pickups are still occurring, people go to the drug store to fill prescriptions, families go out grocery shopping, fall time sports gatherings are still happening, people go out to bars, families go out to dinner and so on. Since no reports of infection has been reported on in the US, the concern from the general population is minor at best.

 

It has been 1 week since the WHO released its data on the new virus spread in South and Central America. Reports begin coming in suggested human-to-human infections in communities within Southern California. The CDC, WHO, FEMA, HHS and DHS send representatives into the area to assist with collecting samples and investigate the situation with the State and local medical community. It is confirmed that a community close to the Mexican border has a 30% infection rate with the H5N1 subtype but no fatalities at this time and it is believed that either drug runners or illegal immigrants may be responsible for bringing the virus over. The traditional media and social media explode with chatter about locking down the southern border; however, even if the military deployed 1 solider for every 10 feet of southern border it would still not prevent this new virus from continuing to entering the US - it is already here. FEMA releases a media statement describing how a pandemic is a unique focusing event compared to other disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and even terrorist attacks. All other forms of disasters (both man-made and natural) impact buildings, national infrastructure, cars, roads, ect. Although pandemic influenza will not directly affect the physical infrastructure, a pandemic will ultimately threaten all operations by its impact on an organization’s human capital. The health threat to personnel is the primary threat to maintaining essential missions and services during a pandemic.

 

After another week, the regions of Chicago, LA, Vegas, along the major highway connection Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio along with New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania begin reporting increases in hospital and out patient visits for flu like symptoms. Officials from the federal government and the WHO receive confirmation from area hospitals that these patients have the human-to-human H5N1 virus. From these reports it appears that there are less than 5% that are showing moderate to severe symptoms associated with this new H5N1 subtype. The USDA dispatches teams to the farming communities in these areas to begin testing the livestock and water fowl for the bird-to-bird strain discovered in China. The test results show no bird-to-bird H5N1 virus in the birds and there are no reports of dead birds. However, the USDA requests that all chickens and farm fowl be quarantined to the farms for now. Several major manufacturing planets (such as the Purdue chicken plant on Maryland’s eastern shore) are immediately impacted by this quarantine. FEMA releases its public pandemic information aimed at reducing the spread of the virus through social dispersal in the work environment, alternative operating facility measures but most importantly, good personal hygiene (e.g. washing hands, carrying hand disinfectant, covering your mouth when you cough, etc). Even with this information being circulated, the US medical surveillance begins showing the pattern of infection cropping up and spreading through the communities near where the US business man traveled. The Governor of each state with an active infection requests the President to declare their state a disaster so they can take on more federal aid.

 

The DHS along with some of the border states are reporting an influx of illegals attempting to gain entry into the US (presumably to outrun the infection in the south). In Arizona a Mexican family of 7 is caught in the desert with high fever and in very poor condition. The father is coughing up blood and the children are very weak. It is officially reported that the South and Central American virus is showing up at our borders now with the refugee population. The federal government issues a declaration of emergency and attempts to fully shut down the border. The Hispanic population in the southern states begin attempting to protest about the situation and request the US to bring their family members over to the US to protect them. When crowds gather out in public they are shut down as quickly as possible in an effort to control the spread of the virus. This does not go over well in the national media but for the most part it is agreed that these are necessary steps.

 

This officially marks the start of the primary pandemic wave within the US.

 

Clinical disease attack rates are reported at 33% with the highest among school-aged children (estimated at upwards of 40% for this group). Among working adults, an average of 20% is recorded during a community level outbreak. Individuals infected that do not develop clinically significant symptoms (asymptomatic) or minimally symptomatic will begin transmitting infection during the viral shedding phase of the infection which further progresses and spreads the primary wave of the pandemic. These individuals which survive the infection develop an immunity to subsequent infections from the same H5N1 virus but should the virus mutate before the second wave begins these people will be just as vulnerable as everyone else. It is estimated at this phase that, on average, infected persons will transmit infection to approximately two other people while shedding the virus. This estimate is based on family living situations and does not account for people traveling.

 

The WHO moves it’s Pandemic Alert Phase to Phase 5: "Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk)."

 

 

Summary of Federal & State Response for Phase 5

 

The Federal Government Pandemic Response Stage moves past 3 - Wide spread human outbreaks in multiple locations overseas - directly to 4 - first human cases in North America

 

The Secretary of HHS declares a Public Health Emergency through authority granted under the Public Health Service Act

 

HHS begins coordinating federal government assistance to supplement state, local and tribal resources in response to the looming, large-scale public health issues which will be managed through the Inter-agency Incident Management Group (IIMG) and the Joint Information Center (JIC)

 

Public health surveillance becomes top priority for the government to track the progress of the H5N1 virus

 

HHS begins implementing procedures for fatality management

 

The Department of homeland Security activates its National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) along with assets from the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS)

 

HHS assists U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in monitoring new influenza strains in wild and live stock poultry

 

USDA through its Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Veterinary Services (VS) program begin working with states and the agricultural industry to conduct influenza surveillance in domestic animals and wild avian populations for signs of original virus before it mutated to the human-to-human strain

 

 

At the State level:

 

Continue to employ state influenza surveillance coordinators (e.g. virologic, outpateint, hospitalization and mortality surveillance)

 

In states were there have been no reported infections, an enhanced surveillance for detection of first cases of virus infection are deployed

 

State epidemiologists provide a daily report on the overall level of influenza activity in their state

 

State and local health departments begin being notified of current recommendations via the Health Alert Network (HAN) and those health departments distribute the recommendations to healthcare providers

 

Local gatherings in the infected zones are cancelled - no concerts, public meetings, ect. School systems in the infected zone are cancelled until further notice.

 

 

Pandemic Period: Weeks 18 - 21 (Dec 10 - Dec 31)

 

There are wide spread community level outbreaks of the flu in California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Montana. It is determined that susceptibility to the pandemic influenza virus is universal, the incubation period for the H5N1 virus is 48 hours and individuals who become infected may begin shedding the virus before the onset of symptoms. Viral shedding and the risk of transmission are greatest during the first 48 to 72 hours after the onset of symptoms. Children usually shed the greatest amount of virus and are identified as the greatest risk for transmission. All public gathering events, including going to school, are cancelled throughout the regions. The social disruption factor has begun and a reduction in basic services begins to settle in. Garbage collection and mail delivery in most of the heavily infected areas has either been significantly reduced or ceased all together. Utility companies only dispatch repair crew for incidents impacting national critical infrastructure or impact critical resources at the state level (e.g. power outage at hospitals, etc) in any of the infected zones. During the onset of the outbreaks a run on ATM machines and banks for withdrawing cash take their toll in the region bank branches causing a shortage on actual cash. The Teamsters Union announces that all long haul truck drivers in the union will immediately suspend operations and short haul drives will work on a case by case base. This reduces the deliverable goods to grocery stores and medicine to local pharmacies.

 

The retailers depending on a solid holiday shopping season are devastated by both the social disruption and the lack of people shopping for fear of getting sick in the areas that haven’t reported any illness as of yet. The economy begins to slide further into a recession during this period. A reduction in imported oil due to ports overseas and domestically being closed down has left a severe heating oil need for those families in the north that are entering the coldest period of the winter. The President authorizes a draw down from the strategic oil reserve to offset the gaps in oil availability. Gas prices begin to spike at close to $8.00 on average for a gallon for regular and, for the people able to go out and shop, all items in stores, particular food have gone up in prices between 8% to 22% due to the fuel shortage. Additionally, even though the US made a point to advise everyone of the pending pandemic most people ignored the warnings and are now left in areas where they cannot go out shopping for basic needs such as food, medicine and general supplies. It is estimated by DHS and FEMA that 93% of the people in the infected zones will not have enough food to last 9 meals and not enough toilet paper and sanitation/cleaners to continue proper sanitation, particular after using the bathroom. In several of the heavily infected areas the public works water plants do not receive the proper chemicals needed to purify the water which leads to many operators to stretch out their supplies as long as possible by diluting them or reducing the amount used. This presents the possibility for a secondary focusing event of water born illnesses due to fecal bacteria and other contamination of the local water.

 

Internationally, outbreaks occur throughout south western China, both Koreans, most of the southern portions of Asia, central and northern Africa, South America and localized outbreaks in Western Europe and parts of Eastern Europe begin occurring. Many of the island nations in the south Pacific and, of course the Caribbean are reporting no infection except for the Dominican Republic which reports isolated human-to-human infection. Australia, New Zealand and New Guinea report no signs of infection. International trade has been disrupted as countries begin closing more of their ports of entry.

 

The Middle East oil producing countries face an issue with having too much stock but no where they can send a bulk of their oil because import/exporting has slowed down to a crawl. With their rivers of cash slowing down to a trickle compounded with the outbreaks of flu, lower quality of medical surveillance and tribal animosity, the smaller countries begin losing control of their people as rioting reaches a fever pitch. Eqypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen and Iraqi governments begin collapsing under the rioting, massive need for medical facilities and need for mass fatalities. The UN and international chapter of the Red Cross try to intervene with the assistance from western nations for resources and supplies. Stronger Middle Eastern national take advantage and try to extend their country’s boundaries with further slides the region in to chaos.

 

Back in the US, risk groups for severe and fatal infection cannot be predicted with certainty but it appears it appears to include infants, elderly, pregnant women and people with chronic medical conditions - specifically those with severe asthma and compromised immune systems. As with South and Central America, cases of healthy 16 to 30 years old are dying from the flu bug are reported; however, it is at a higher rate than seen south of the US. What appeared to be a repeat of the 1958 pandemic influenza is now being compared in the national media to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Absentee rates attributed to the virus, the need to care for ill family members and fear of infection have reach as high as 40%. Senior citizens and those depended on medications from either a local pharmacy or through the mail do not receive their medications or a significant reduce in receiving medications and this causes a slight increase of people visiting the emergency room causing further spread of infection.

 

 

The WHO raises their Pandemic Alert Phase to Phase 6: “Pandemic phase: increased and sustained transmission in general population."

 

The Federal Government Pandemic Response Stage moves to 5 - Spread throughout United States

 

 

Peak Pandemic Period (Primary Wave Peak): Weeks 22 - 25 (Jan 1 - , Jan 28, 2012)

 

Week 22:

 

Forty-seven of the fifty states are reporting outbreaks of the N5H1 virus in various phases of the primary pandemic wave. The west coast and the northern states are farther along in the pandemic wave than the eastern and southern states. Holistically, the US is overwhelmed and cannot devote any further cycles or resources towards containment and treatment of pateints. Overall, EMS, fire department and police are barred from entering any of the infected zones to perform their services because once they enter a zone, they run the risk of being infected and therefore would not be allowed to leave the area until the wave subsides. Volunteers from these services attempt to continue delivering their services but the numbers are simply too small to make a difference and the national guard simply does not have enough resources to handle their state’s situation. The national media reports on dozens of large scale fires actively burning through and spreading to neighborhoods in LA, New York City, Atlanta and Chicago. Medical services have all but stalled in many areas due to either ERs being overwhelmed, medical personnel either becoming infected or staying at home to take care of sick family members. The FEMA camps set up for quarantines and for ER spill over are beyond capacity and the Red Cross is having difficulty keeping up with providing relief supplies.

 

The eastern and southern states on the eastern side of the Mississippi are reporting wide spread community level outbreaks, predominately centered around schools and places were groups of people in excess of 50 gather. The CDC in Atlanta goes on lock down in order to protect the critical personnel needed to continue their pandemic functions. Area hospitals receives shipments of the anti-viral medicines and critical and essential personnel along with high risk patience are given the first wave of the new medications. The CDC along with the HHS and WHO finalize and release an updated new release with the characteristics of this new flu bug:

 

Illness - 42% of the US population (131 million sick people out of 312 million)

Outpatient Medical Care - 65.5 million (50% of illness)

Hospitalization - 9.9 million (only reportable based on total number of available space - number may be larger)

ICU care - 1.4 million (only reportable based on the total number of available space in all of the ICUs - number may be larger)

Mechanical Ventilation - 945,500 (reportable based on the total number of ventilation units available - number could have been larger)

Deaths - 30.1 million (22% of illness)

 

At this point, the H5N1 Avian bird flu has officially reached the same level of severity as the 1918 Spanish Flu and a combined panel of FEAM/HHS/WHO/CDC confirm this in the media. Those responsible for handling the bodies of victims begin running out of coffins and crematoriums are beginning to shut down down to the lack of supplies needed to run them. Most states issues emergency proclamations that corpse will either be buried in mass graves or place on large pyres for disposal. The social impact from this is overwhelming to everyone with the thought of family members being dumped into a pit with other bodies or thrown on giant fires.

 

In Texas overall and specifically DMDville, no government confirmed outbreaks have occurred but several elementary school children has been taken to the ER for high fever. Most of the population of DMDville has seen the events unfold in the national media and for the most part roughly 40% of our town is prepared to go at least 2 weeks without access to a grocery store and basic supplies. On the outskirts of our town we have several farmers that have take 10% of their crops and provided them to the town’s food pantry for dispersal should there become a food shortage. This was a pre-arrangement - or what is known as a mutual aid agreement in the emergency management sphere - between the town government and those farmers. Even with the preparedness level that DMDville has shown, it is still not enough to effectively make it through a pandemic influenza wave. Most families begin keeping their children home from school and after school activities while those who have the option to work from home do so. Normal social services for the most part are still running, mail is being delivered, garbage is being picked up and the local super market & farmers market are still open; however, dust masks are being worn in force. For the most part the worst we’ve seen in our town has been Christmas was much smaller than most would have liked and the New Year’s eve parties were either canceled or lightly attended.

 

Week 23:

 

It is confirmed that the children who reported to the ER for high fevers have the human-to-human H5N1 virus. Parents and family members of these children are asked to remain where they are under quarentine. Mayor McFumble and the city council hold a town hall meeting via local television station and phone banks for questions regarding the pandemic gripping the nation and apparently showing up in our town. Two shelters have been opened - 1 at the high school gym will be used for family members that are sick when there is no room in an E/R and the second one at the ice rink will be used to store up supplies and act as a temporary morgue should the need arise. The State of Texas with the authority granted to it from the federal Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 and the state’s P.L. 107-188 under Chapter 81 (Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Act), Texas Health and Safety Code, Chapter 121 (Local Public Health Reorganization Act) Texas Health and Safety Code, Chapter 161 (Public Health Provisions, § 161.0211, Epidemiologic or Toxicologic Investigations) Texas Health and Safety Code enact State Annex H under Texas’ emergency operations plan begin pandemic operations. The state designated local physician from our county is to administer state and local laws relating to public health under the Local Public Health Reorganization Act, Health and Safety Code, Chapter 121. This health authority has considerable power that allows the him/her full authority to investigate suspected incidents and outbreaks of H5N1 but most importantly (for this scenario) establishing, maintaining and enforcing quarantines in the local health authority's jurisdiction. Additionally, representatives from the CDC, DHS, FEMA, DHHS, American Red Cross & WHO arrive and begin setting up at the town’s incident command. DMDville has become ground zero for Texas’ pandemic wave.

 

The State of Texas begins a systematic application of disease control measures in an attempt to reduce the disease transmission rates with accompanying reductions in the intensity and velocity of the spread of the H5N1 flu bug. Anti-viral medications are issues to health workers, first responders and state and county level key government officials. Additionally, the state stands up its Multi-Agency Coordination Center (MACC) in anticipation of multiple community/multiple jurisdiction outbreaks so that there is one center governing and overseeing each of the Incident Command Posts (ICP) and Emergency Operations Centers (EOC). When this is done, all of the federal Representatives move from DMDville over to the MACC in a neighboring county. Ultimately, the The Department of State Health Services (DSHS) is responsible for coordinating response operations related to the threat presented by the H5N1 flu bug (and directs the MACC) with the Governor’s Division of Emergency Management (GDEM) being the lead supporting agency. Enhanced communication and medical surveillance has ramped up and trained responders for pandemic influenza response teams are on standby. What this means in DMDville is that state and county officials prompt both county and local (DMDville) public works operations to establish roadblocks and inspection points around critical infrastructure (specifically our water treatment plant, our electrical distribution hubs and our natural gas pipeline that passes 8 miles near our town).

 

 

Week 24:

 

It is reported that DMDville has 91 cases of infection with 58 of these cases being young, healthy teenagers and adults between the ages of 14 - 33. After a couple of days fatality reports come out that 22% of the 91 patients have died with a majority being in the healthy demography (under age 65 and over age 20). News reports are coming out that show a sharp increase in fatalities in healthy young adults and teenagers from all over the US. The CDC holds a news conference from their headquarters in Atlanta explaining they believe the reason behind the unusually high fatality rate in healthy people is due to what is called cytokine storm. This is an overreaction of the body's immune system which is believed related to the age profile and healthy, strong nature of the victim's immune system. This is the same mechanism that researches believe made the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic so deadly. The CDC cites research that shows that a few days after T-cells are activated to fight an infection, they produce a molecule called OX40 which binds to receptors on T-cells that keep them active. With research conducted in the UK, they created OX40-immunoglobulin, a human-made fusion protein, that should help to keep the bodies immune system in check once a patient begins to show symptoms of a cytokine storm. They are hopeful that this can assist those going through a cytokine storm to help reduce the fatalities.

 

It is around this time that pharmaceutical companies begin distributing a new vaccine that has been created from this new virus. At first it is given to all critical personnel within the US and patients considered high risk. Because this is a new vaccine, there is no way to know how effective it will be and this is due to the length of time it takes to develop a new vaccine (roughly 6 months). It is possible that this new H5N1 subtype has mutated since it was first taken out of the field and placed in the laboratories for vaccine development.

 

Week 25:

 

DMDville fire and rescue services being reporting a sharp uptick in emergency calls for people with high fevers and coughing up blood. The local ER at the hospital and the nighttime medical centers are at capacity with sick patients. Mayor McFumble has ceased all garbage pickup and requested the post master to suspend all mail service. The water treatment plant reports that it has enough chemicals to treat waste water for another 4 weeks; however, 2 of the 8 public works employees responsible for running the water treatment plant have been infected with this new H5N1 so the risk exists that the remaining 6 employees have been exposed as well. 2 of the remaining 6 workers have no children and are not married and volunteer to remain on site at the water treatment plant until the pandemic wave passes. Because of the terrorism amendments added to the State Hazard Mitigation Acts and other federally driven emergency management programs, our water treatment plant spent some of the federal funding on stock piling 2 weeks of military grade MREs (Meals Ready to Eat) along with additional supplies for employees to use.

 

The Texas National Guard begins quarantining DMDville. All rail and bus service is blocked from entering or existing our town. No further delivery of goods to stores is allowed in nor are police or fire fighters allowed to respond to emergency calls in the infected neighborhoods. The US Army corp of engineers stations resources 8 miles from our town with instructions to begin digging a mass grave for disposing of infected corpses. Because of the wide spread reduction in human capital in the telecommunication sector, outside connectivity to the Internet and through mobile devices is spotty with long-term outages in services which makes it difficult to continue receiving updates from social media. Family members out of state are still able to contact us here in DMDville via our old copper phone lines and we are still able to receive non-filtered news reports and updates on how the rest of the state and country are fairing. And this news is not very promising. All of the infected major metropolitan areas are experiencing the same series of events: mass looting, violence, property damage, theft and high mortality rates from the virus. The major media outlets in Chicago, New York City, Washington DC, Bosie, Vegas, Flagstaff, Columbia, SC, LA, San Diego, Portland, OR, Seattle, Philadelphia, Richmond, Newark, Raleigh, Dallas and New Orleans have either gone off the air or have 1 to 2 desk anchors still reporting when they can. From our family members we are hearing that outbreaks have cropped up in Alaska and they are rolling through remote Eskimo villages with at alarming rate.

 

1 in 3 families on a street have run out of food and are beginning to contact the EOC and any other local government phone number they can find looking for food. The following are example situations that may occur under these conditions:

 

TimC’s neighbor’s to the right of him attempt to break into his garage one night to steal some of his frozen deer and beef; however, they were caught by TimC (with his rifle) and sent packing.

 

On Puddy’s street one father attempts to break down the front door of Puddy’s neighbor to get at their indoor garden containing tomatoes, cucumbers and onions. The father doesn’t appear to be infected but is desperate for food for his kids. This doesn’t concern Puddy's neighbor and when the father begins kicking in his front door the neighbor unloads his 16 gauge with high brass shells.

 

A pharmacy technician from the local drug store stole a list containing names of people in DMDville that have prescriptions for anti-viral medications to suppress outbreaks of Herpes. The lab tech goes out with 4 other people armed with hunting rifles and shotguns to rob these people of their medications.

 

Ursa’s neighbors to the left were discovered dead - presumably from the virus - and several other people on his street take it upon themselves to burn down the house to despise of the infected corpses. The fire begins to spread and everyone from Ursa’s street evacuated to other family members homes or the town’s shelter.

 

Loaf has both of his neighbor’s showing up at his front door asking for supplies and his neighbor to the right of him is showing signs that he may be infected. When Loaf turns them away, it turns ugly and potentially sick neighbor tries to force herself into the house to which Loaf responds with a baseball bat to the chest sending her flying.

 

Egret has run out of food and potable water and heads up to main street to loot the local grocery store and drug store only to find out that they already have and there is nothing left to take. On his way back to his neighborhood he is encountered by another group of people out doing the same thing. Egret is held up at gun point and robbed of everything he has; however, a short while later the group is caught attempting to leave our town by the national guard.

 

Over towards the center of town, DMD is awoke in the middle of the night by a group of young men breaking into his basement. DMD puts on his cowboy hat, jersey and straps 2 colt .45’s to his hip, get’s Clyde to do a left turn and ‘resolves’ the matter through what George Lucas states as ‘aggressive negotiations’ - leading to the death of 2 of the men.

 

The backup generators for the hospital run out of fuel and the hospital does dark. Patients deemed with the highest possible chance of recovery from the H5N1 who are suffering from severe respiratory complications are given a manual respirator and someone to pump the device; however, after 18 hours fatigue has overcome all of the available people who volunteered to operate the respirators and these patients eventually pass away.

 

Mayor McFumble requests the Texas National Guard to intervene and help restore order on the streets but this request was turned down. As of this moment, DMDville is cut off from the outside world and no resources will be allowed to enter our town unless directed by the appropriate federal or state government entity. A fire breaks out at the local chemical plant (fertilizer manufacture) which leads to an explosion that begins spreading to the local woods and farmer’s buildings in the outlying areas. The fire department is unable to respond and contain the fire which leads to all of the fail safes in the plant melting down and release deadly chemical clouds into the environment. As luck would have it, the chemicals head away from town into a federal owned flood plain killing the local wild life but no human deaths. Even with everything going on with the pandemic, DMDville manages to follow all procedures for accidental release of hazardous chemicals outlined in SARA Title III and the Superfund act. The emergency food stores that DMDville had established are beginning to run dry and power outages begin to become more and more common place. Those of us with backup generators are only good as long as our backup fuel remains. Many of us have been reverted to the 1800s with candles and burning wood for warmth in our fire places.

 

 

Post-Peak Pandemic Period (Primary Wave): Weeks 26 - 27 (Jan 29 - Feb 11, 2012)

 

Just when our town is at the brink of being totally consumed by the fallout of the pandemic the reports coming in are that the primary wave is beginning to subside. Out of the 38,000 people in our town, 14,533 were infected with H5N1 virus with 22% or 3,197 died from the virus. Our electric, gas and water utilities have been significantly compromised and will require federal assistance in order to fix everything. FEMA has established a small trailer community for those that have lost their homes to fire or otherwise cannot continue living in their homes. Water is being trucked in by FEMA and our town is relying on the government to provide food. Overall the following stats are released for DMDville:

 

Total deaths attributed to infection: 3,197

Justifiable homicide: 17

Unjustifiable homicide: 112

Other deaths: 9 (not related to virus or violence)

Infrastructure offline: water, gas and electricity

Structures destroyed by fire: 29

Critical Infrastructure damaged or disabled: Gas line feeding town, 39% of above ground electrical lines, waste water filtration plant running at 20%

Number of families destroyed by viral deaths: 417

Number of orphans: 212

Total land area contaminated by chemical release: 466 acres of federal land and farms

Secondary focusing event [Water Borne Illnesses]: Cyclosporiasis (201 cases) & Ascariasis (27 cases)

 

DHS releases a statement indicating that an estimated 97.4 million Americans have died from the primary wave of the H5N1 subtype. Overall, the fatality reports coming in globally:

 

Western Europe: 19% of the population

Eastern Europe: 23% of the population

China: 33% of the population

North Korea refuses to report on its fatalities

Rest of Asia combined: 21% of population

Africa: 34% of the population

Central America: 23% of the population

South America: 21% of the population

Middle East: 28% of the population

 

As the primary wave subsides, the WHO, HHS, FEMA & DHS begins the difficult task of monitoring the situation and dissimulating information to determine if/when the second wave may begin. This proves very difficult due to the significant reduction of human capital and that there are no hard procedures or experience anywhere within any of the agencies on what to specifically look for to determine if a community is coming out of the primary wave or entering a secondary wave. During this period, communications and news reports are scattered and filled with assumptions so the public is having difficulties understanding the direction the nation is heading.

 

Post-Peak Pandemic Period (Primary Wave): Weeks 28 - 29 (Feb 12 - Feb 26, 2012)

 

The vaccine for the H5N1 has been effective and it has been put into full manufacturing production. The vaccine is deemed mandatory for all federal and state government employees and the priority list for receiving the vaccine for the general public are high risk patients (e.g. pregnant women, children and infants, elderly, those with compromised immune systems and then the healthy demography. An estimate going around in the WHO and CDC is that 1.2% of the population exposed to the new H5N1 virus were immune. The CDC had been conducting research on several people who were exposed to the virus but never developed symptoms. Pathogens have evolved along with people so if a pathogen kills everyone it infects (100% mortality rate) then the chance of it being transmitted outside of a local region are very low - the pathogen would essentially burn its self. If you think about the HIV virus, it doesn't kill people, the lack of an immune system and the other diseases a patient receives due to the compromised immune system is what kills them. Usually a pathogen will exploit some biological system and there is always the possibility that a person may have a defect in this system. From the research performed by the CDC it is determined that the people who were infected but did not develop symptoms have a genetic 'hiccup' where the trinucleotides on a gene in Chromosome 14 are repeated causing the gene to become faulty. Because of this the receptors on the cells of lung tissues that the H5N1 virus binds is defective and prevents the H5N1 virus from replicating in the hosts. This research will be used for future preventive measures from another H5N1 pandemic.

 

The H5N1 virus responsible for the pandemic is now colloquially known as ‘The Irish Pandemic of 2011’ due to the viruses ability force its way into the population, how the early onsets of the symptoms are annoying at best and how difficult it is to get it to leave and never come back (sorry, it’s not a milestone post unless i poke at iRash a bit)

 

Conclusion

 

Think this scenario sounds a little too sensationalized and extreme? I don't blame you one bit. Here are some interesting facts from the Spanish Flu of 1918. Keep in mind that the primary wave circled the global in less than 3 months and that is WITHOUT modern transportation systems we have today. Now, we can go from China to the US in less than a day whereas back then, travels was primarily taking a ship overseas:

 

It is estimated that the mortality rate of the 1918/1919 Spanish Flu is between 10% to 20% of those infected. With roughly a third of the worlds population infected, this case-fatality ration means that 3% to 6% of the global population, which was at just under 2 billion in 1918, died

 

Estimated this flu bug killed 25 million people in the first 25 weeks

 

17 million died in India (5% of their population)

390k died in Japan

Up to 675k died in the US

400k died in France

50k died in Canada

100k died in West Africa

1.5 million died in Indonesia

Entire Alaskan villages were killed off from the flu

 

Globally, it is estimated that the infection rate was between 33% to 50% of the population. Now that is a scary bug. Imagine something like that being exposed to a business person traveling from Europe to Asian? Within a week (in modern times) almost every land mass would have the pathogen at its doorstep.

 

Originally I was going to cover the secondary wave and all of the post pandemic reconstitution but I will save that for another milestone post. While I am sure that there are logical errors to this post try to look at it as an entertaining way to learn a little bit about how just ill equipment and unprepared we are to face down a deadly pandemic in modern times. The best thing you can do for your family is to make an emergency plan and make sure that everyone knows about it. So what exactly is a family emergency plan? Glad you asked:

 

Overview:

http://www.ready.gov/america/makeaplan/

 

Emergency Kit:

http://www.ready.gov/america/getakit/index.html

 

Make a Plan:

http://www.ready.gov/america/makeaplan/index.html

http://www.ready.gov/america/_downloads/fa...ergencyplan.pdf

 

Be Informed:

http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/index.html

 

I also recommend that everyone should register for your local, county/parish and state emergency notification systems. You can receive free email/text messages with any type of status update or alerts. Additionally, i recommend that you register with NOAA and the USGS alert systems as well.

 

Chargerz - feel free to correct me on anything

 

 

~Fin

[Big John]

Loaf has both of his neighbor’s showing up at his front door asking for supplies and his neighbor to the right of him is showing signs that he may be infected. When Loaf turns them away, it turns ugly and potentially sick neighbor tries to force herself into the house to which Loaf responds with a baseball bat to the chest sending her flying.

He lives in an apartment.

 

 

 

 

And

[cliaz]

holy crap, we jumped from H1N1 to H5N1?!

 

Ima sh1t my pants if the next one is NCC1701.

 

Well it depends on if it is NCC1701-A, B, C, D or E

[T_bone65]

And to think I let my 20K slip by unnoticed today

[Hugh B Tool]

Wow, that's three minutes of my life I will never get back. Thanks for the milestone.

[Big F'n Dave]

Look at me!!!

[Big John]

And to think I let my 20K slip by unnoticed today

And Chief Dick's next post will be 18K

[Puddy]

I'll be honest....I quickly scanned the post to see if I was mentioned. I was, so thanks.

 

 

 

And congrats on 13k noob.

[Chief Dick]

And Chief Dick's next post will be 18K

 

 

I hope I can think of something worthwhile.

 

 

Oh, and congrats cliaz.

[loaf]

congrats!

[keggerz]

 

And to think I let my 20K slip by unnoticed today

I let 32K slide by sometime this past week

[BillyBalata]

So much for that winter vacation to DMDville i had planned.

[Chargerz]

WOW!!! That was some post!!

 

Congrats on 13K!

[Savage Beatings]

Cool post (and congrats!). I found myself awake at 3:30am and took a good 45 minutes or so to read through all of this. Very scary!

[KICK A$$ BLASTER]

So....Who's getting their flu shot this year....

[whomper]

Congrats Detlef

[Puddy]

Congrats Detlef

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Congrats Detlef

 

 

Now that's funny

[Rovers]

This will not count as extra credit.

[buddahj]

Congrats on the milestone.

[Clubfoothead]

As usual, I don't have a week to read your post so I'll just offer my congrats on 13k.

 

[MrTed46]

Wow, that's three minutes of my life I will never get back. Thanks for the milestone.

 

Was he at least good?

[cliaz]

And so it begins...

[Yukon Cornelius]

And so it begins...

well chicken nuggets so go down in price.

[Scorcher]

I hope I can think of something worthwhile.

 

 

Oh, and congrats cliaz.

 

Is this your 18k post?