What do you need on MNF - Week 13

[Gopher]

Most of my matchups are a done deal, or pretty close.  That said, I have one big one left to be decided....

FFPC 12-team Redraft - This one stings. Top two in every league advance to the Championship round in Weeks 15-17.  I finished 3rd at 8-4 (1690.10 pts), right behind the guy who finished 7-5 with 1690.25 pts.  That's right... I missed the Championship round by .15 pts.  Losing Cousins killed me, as I then had to rely on Herbert every week (and his weapons were just simply depleted as the season progressed).  Went from having two stud QB's, to that position being a deficiency.  Ugh.  But... I'm still playing for my 12-team league's championship (playing the 2-seed who just squeaked by me).  Down 38, and I can play two of these guys tonight (full PPR).... Mixon, Boyd, CIN TE Hudson, OR D. Johnson (JAC RB).  Obviously, I'd love to hear that Etienne is out tonight (I would then play both RB's), but if not, I'll likely go Mixon and Boyd.  TE's get a premium 1.5 PPR, but between Boyd and Hudson, I feel like Boyd MIGHT be the better bet to have a big game.  Even with Higgins back.  I'm waffling on this one, though, and likely won't make a decision until after inactives are declared (and I'll probably change my mind a couple of times even after that).   

 

[darin3]

What a crappy effing week for me.  Just terrible.  Sometimes I wonder why I even put myself through the heartache

Work league I am up on the doormat with Engram yet to go tonight (TE premium), and need to score more for tiebreaker's sake.  Have an outside shot to make the playoffs.

A little "family" league I'm up by 32 facing Trevor Lawrence.  He'd need a big game to catch me.  I had both Lamb and Tyreek in this one, but rest of team was pretty junky. 

I will survive in Guillotine league (will be down to final 5!) despite sitting DK for Dell.  Of course one can't predict injuries but I was kind of between these two guys before the week started anyways.

Up about 3 points in a 12-team superflex and they still have Tyler Boyd.  Probably gonna lose here.  

Up about 4 points in a 12-team redraft to @HowboutthemCowboysbut he has the mighty Luke Farrell from JAX... he's questionable going in, so hopefully he doesn't do ANYTHING.

Down 40 in an 8-team IDP dynasty, I have Trey Hendrickson and Logan Wilson. They have Sam Hubbard.  Probably ain't happening here either.

Down about 6 in a 12-team IDP superflex dynasty.  I have Jake Browning (lol), Ja'Marr Chase and Tanner Hudson (lol again).  They have Tee Higgins, Hendrickson, Foye Oloukun and Dax Hill.  Likely done here too.

Up about 8 in a 12-team dynasty with Irv Smith (lol) and Evan McPherson.  They got Boyd.  I should be OK here but really have limited playoff hopes so meh.

Down about 7 to @Tfordin a 12-team IDP dynasty where I am trying to lose.  He has Etienne, I have Brandon McManus and Josh Allen (the DE).  Hoping Etienne finds the endzone a couple times.

Up about 6 to @Caveman_Nick in a league where we're vying for a division.  I have Chase.  He has McPherson and Devin Lloyd.  Rooting hardcore for Chase here.  Gonna be a photo finish, one that I'll probably lose considering this team is cursed.  This team has had the following BS:  Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, Jordyn Brooks... I even gave up a poo-ton on Thursday to get Hurts, and of course HE gets hurt yesterday.  I don't know what I've done to upset the fantasy gods, but it's maddening. 

Down 41 in a 12-team IDP dynasty/devy and have Logan Wilson.  Can he get 20 solo stops?

Up 20 to @Francos Miller Lite in a 14-team IDP dynasty where I absolutely need a win to keep in the playoff hunt.  He has Lawrence.  I have McPherson and Hendrickson.  Fighting with myself based on other leagues here.

Down 57ish in a 12-team IDP dynasty and have Chase, Oloukun and Hendrickson.  They have Mixon and Logan Wilson.  Toast.

---------------------

Just a crappy week when I needed my guys to come through.  Will probably be a disappointing MNF all around.

E2A:  Just put $10 on a little 3-player prop parlay to make things at least somewhat palatable.  D'Ernest Johnson over 20.5 rushing yards (thinking they will be up enough to pound him late), Etienne over 13.5 receiving yards (should be doable) and Jake Browning over 217.5 passing... hoping for garbage time.

Edited December 4, 2023 by darin3

[stevegrab]

For once I left zero points on my bench, easier to avoid when most of them are on bye or not active. Boyd might mess that up tonight.

I need Etienne to sit out and D'Ernest Johnson to score about 13.5 points, then I'd win. Which does me no good, just risks losing the #1 overall pick in 2024. So go ETN. 

[Big John]

Do you realize this is for next week.?

[Gopher]

12 minutes ago, Big John said:

Do you realize this is for next week.?

Fixed.  

[irish]

I need 14 combined points from Etienne and the Jags' D to win tonight and move into the top 4 in my league for a playoff spot. 

[Gopher]

OK.  Sounds like Etienne is going to play.  I need 38 pts (standard PPR except 1.5 PPR for TE) from two guys.  I probably need a pretty good week from Mixon to have a shot.  Something similar to what he did two weeks ago, which was 100 total yards, 5 catches, and a score.  That was his best game of the year, totaling 21 points.  Let's say he gets 20, to keep it simple.

That leaves 17-18 pts from one of these three guys.....

D'Ernest Johnson JAC RB - Can't imagine he'd get enough in garbage time (we're talking about at least 100 yds and a score, plus or minus depending on any receptions). So, I'd be relying on an Etienne injury, which probably isn't a good bet.  Possible? Sure.  But, I'd rather not count/bet on it. 

Tyler Boyd CIN WR - I'd feel better about this if Tee Higgins was still out (and if Burrow was still playing, obviously).  He could certainly bust a long score, but even that by itself would likely not be enough.  Probably needs somewhere in the range of 3-5 catches for 70-90 yards, with a TD. 

Tanner Hudson CIN TE - The 1.5PPR make this tempting, at the very least.  If Mixon can get to 20, that leaves something like 5 catches for 45 yards and a score for the recently surging TE.  Certainly doable.  That said, it's asking a lot to be counting on a score from both Hudson and Mixon. Or, I guess two between the pair (doesn't matter who gets them).  Heck, I'm not even sure CIN scores twice as a whole team.  

Any thoughts on who stands out?  I've really got nothing to lose.  Need to pick the two guys with the most upside, basically.  I think I'm actually leaning towards Hudson, simply because him getting a bunch (or at least a handful) of dump-off passes seems more plausible than Boyd busting a couple of long catches with Browning under center.  Make sense?  Or, am I overthinking this, and Boyd is the obvious choice here?  

[irish]

8 minutes ago, Gopher said:

OK.  Sounds like Etienne is going to play.  I need 38 pts (standard PPR except 1.5 PPR for TE) from two guys.  I probably need a pretty good week from Mixon to have a shot.  Something similar to what he did two weeks ago, which was 100 total yards, 5 catches, and a score.  That was his best game of the year, totaling 21 points.  Let's say he gets 20, to keep it simple.

That leaves 17-18 pts from one of these three guys.....

D'Ernest Johnson JAC RB - Can't imagine he'd get enough in garbage time (we're talking about at least 100 yds and a score, plus or minus depending on any receptions). So, I'd be relying on an Etienne injury, which probably isn't a good bet.  Possible? Sure.  But, I'd rather not count/bet on it. 

Tyler Boyd CIN WR - I'd feel better about this if Tee Higgins was still out (and if Burrow was still playing, obviously).  He could certainly bust a long score, but even that by itself would likely not be enough.  Probably needs somewhere in the range of 3-5 catches for 70-90 yards, with a TD. 

Tanner Hudson CIN TE - The 1.5PPR make this tempting, at the very least.  If Mixon can get to 20, that leaves something like 5 catches for 45 yards and a score for the recently surging TE.  Certainly doable.  That said, it's asking a lot to be counting on a score from both Hudson and Mixon. Or, I guess two between the pair (doesn't matter who gets them).  Heck, I'm not even sure CIN scores twice as a whole team.  

Any thoughts on who stands out?  I've really got nothing to lose.  Need to pick the two guys with the most upside, basically.  I think I'm actually leaning towards Hudson, simply because him getting a bunch (or at least a handful) of dump-off passes seems more plausible than Boyd busting a couple of long catches with Browning under center.  Make sense?  Or, am I overthinking this, and Boyd is the obvious choice here?  

I think Mixon is probably around 60-70 total yards, 2-3 receptions and not likely to score. 

Like you said, definitely not banking on Johnson, as while Etienne could get knocked out, that's not a fun way to go. 

I think Boyd is a 3 catch 30-40 yard bought at best.  Hudson is likely 2 catches for 20 yards and no TD. 

I'd roll with Boyd and hope he breaks a long one. 

[Gopher]

4 minutes ago, irish said:

I think Mixon is probably around 60-70 total yards, 2-3 receptions and not likely to score. 

Like you said, definitely not banking on Johnson, as while Etienne could get knocked out, that's not a fun way to go. 

I think Boyd is a 3 catch 30-40 yard bought at best.  Hudson is likely 2 catches for 20 yards and no TD. 

I'd roll with Boyd and hope he breaks a long one. 

Yeah, there's no doubt it's not happening if they all hit their projections (and nothing more).  Mixon is a no-brainer by default.  The other three certainly COULD have big games, but it would take something unusual to happen.  It really comes down to which is most likely...

- Etienne reaggravates his injury and DJohnson gets the majority of the touches as a result.

- Boyd breaks a long one (or two). 

- Hudson gets a bunch of targets and reels in several short catches, and maybe a score.  

It's highly unlikely more than one of those things happen.  It's not even that likely that ONE of them happens.  I'm just hoping to pick the right one, just in case.  And, even then, Mixon probably has to have his best game of the season, or close.  

The rational side of me agrees with you.  That said, more often than not in these prime-time games, something unexpected happens.  I'm hoping that tonight that means the CIN offense comes out firing on all cylinders.  

Still debating.  My head says Hudson, but my gut is saying Boyd.  

[darin3]

@Gopher considering the TE premium I would play Hudson.  I don't think Boyd has the ceiling.  Johnson is tempting because I think that the Jags COULD be up big, which would mean they pull the gimpy ETN and let Johnson do the pounding :oldunsure:  ... but that's risky.  I think Hudson gets 4-5 catches which could get you to the number you need.

[FinishTheDrill]

6 hours ago, darin3 said:

What a crappy effing week for me.  Just terrible.  Sometimes I wonder why I even put myself through the heartache

 

Man, doesnt that just sum it up sometimes!?

 

 

[gijoerock]

@irishcongratulations on Etienne touchdown.  Hopefully that gives you the win this week.

[Shaft]

21 minutes ago, gijoerock said:

@irishcongratulations on Etienne touchdown.  Hopefully that gives you the win this week.

Booo! I needed him to lose. 🙃

[gijoerock]

@Shaft is there a huddle fantasy league?

[Shaft]

4 minutes ago, gijoerock said:

@Shaft is there a huddle fantasy league?

Yep....Huddle Elite. It's a tight race for the final playoff spots. 

[gijoerock]

@Shaft post an image of the standings if you dont mind. 

[Big John]

18 minutes ago, gijoerock said:

@Shaft is there a huddle fantasy league?

There are plenty of Huddle leagues, referred as a BoTH (Born of the Huddle) leagues.  There is a forum for recruiting for new members in those leagues, look for the openings in the springtime.

[irish]

2 hours ago, gijoerock said:

@irishcongratulations on Etienne touchdown.  Hopefully that gives you the win this week.

That TD was crucial, without it, I surely lose. 

1 hour ago, Shaft said:

Booo! I needed him to lose. 🙃

Sorry buddy, but there's no guarantee in Elite. I have to play Darin and Cowboyz1 left. 2 tough games against playoff contending teams. 

[Big John]

32 more passing yards from Browning.

[Big John]

15 minutes ago, Big John said:

32 more passing yards from Browning.

36  

[irish]

2 minutes ago, Big John said:

36  

That's awesome!  Never would've expected that outcome or the Bengals winning tonight. 

[stevegrab]

Yeah I lost, and that should lock up the #1 overall pick in 2024. 

Congrats to those who won, sorry to those who lost. 

[Gopher]

Well, I needed about 38 from Mixon and Hudson, and I got.... 39!!!  

One of the craziest nights I have experienced fantasy-wise... I'm sure last night is one I won't forget any time soon.  Once Mixon scored his second TD, I knew I had a shot.  Then, things slowed down a bit for the CIN offense, and I was stuck being down 7.7 points for quite a while.  Then, still down 5.4 mid-4th quarter.  Finally, as the closing seconds of regulation expired, Hudson caught his 4th pass of the night and was tackled as the clock hit zero.  I sat and stared at my phone, waiting for the live scoring on the FFPC app to update............

129.5 - 129.4  

Going into OT, I had two concerns.  I was sitting in a brewery, having just finished a little league board meeting.  One, my phone battery was on like 4% and I had no charger. Two, I kept thinking about how easy it would be for Mixon to take a two-yard loss, and me therefore lose my lead.  But, Mixon caught a pass for a few yards that gave me a small cushion.  That was it... Final score 131.0 - 129.4.  Unbelievable.  

Turns out what I speculated I would need was pretty close to what happened.  The only difference was Mixon got both TD's, rather than Hudson getting one.  And, for what it's worth, I would have won with Boyd also, but by THREE TENTHS OF A POINT instead of by 1.6.  Crazy.  

Mixon - 117 yards, 6 catches, 2 TD's... 29.7 pts
Hudson - 4-35... 9.5 pts
Boyd - 5-37... 8.2 pts

Feeling pretty good about the final, as I get Zay Flowers and TJ Hockenson back this week.  And, I have no players with significant injuries going into the week (knock on wood).  That said, the projected scoring for the final is 138.98 - 138.43!  Probably going to be another nail-biter.  

[Bier Meister]

horrid week 13. lost all 5 leagues due to underachievers (and going against misc cowboys and t hill twice).

toughest was my 10-2 ffpc team who scored 25 below season average (if i hit average, would have won)

[Gopher]

1 hour ago, Bier Meister said:

horrid week 13. lost all 5 leagues due to underachievers (and going against misc cowboys and t hill twice).

toughest was my 10-2 ffpc team who scored 25 below season average (if i hit average, would have won)

Brutal.  Did you finish in the top two spots (reg season), and therefore have a shot at Weeks 15-17?