Jump to content

Going into the draft blind?


CardinalEmpire.com
 Share

Recommended Posts

So our league commish announced today that we would not be doing a draft lottery beforehand in our redraft league. Instead, the plan is to show up the night of, enjoy the grub, and then pick from a hat right before we start. I guess he has a point that draft position doesn't make a HUGE difference after the first round or two, but I do think it effects what positions you might target in the first 3 or 4 rounds.

 

Anyone have any experience with this kind of league? How did you prepare if you didn't know where you were picking. And maybe most importantly, what would be your 2-round strategy for all possible slots in a 10-team league? To the last question, I think it has to go:

 

Pick 1-4: RB, WR/QB

Pick 5-7: WR/RB, WR/RB

Pick 8-10: Best available (look for the guy who slips), RB (can't wait until pick 28 to get your first RB)

 

Thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you're prepared, it shouldn't matter. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes that you can make is decide that you are going to go RB/RB or some other predetermined strategy in the first two rounds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you're prepared, it shouldn't matter. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes that you can make is decide that you are going to go RB/RB or some other predetermined strategy in the first two rounds.

Completely agree with Furd. Worst thing you can do when drafting is be rigid on a "strategy" when the order of things can render that strategy less effective. Be prepared to build your team from any spot and adjust your strategy as the players available dictate would be my advice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So is it all "best available" as long as you get a RB, a QB, a WR, and another RB/WR in the first four rounds? I know that still sounds rigid, but my philosophy is never to reach on any of those three positions when trying to find a lead guy. I hate having a Hasselbeck type as my QB (I've always lost that bet) and certainly don't want to wait until Round 5 to draft my first RB/WR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So is it all "best available" as long as you get a RB, a QB, a WR, and another RB/WR in the first four rounds? I know that still sounds rigid, but my philosophy is never to reach on any of those three positions when trying to find a lead guy. I hate having a Hasselbeck type as my QB (I've always lost that bet) and certainly don't want to wait until Round 5 to draft my first RB/WR.

 

Well, I rarely go QB before the 6th round, but since you are not comfortable doing that, you will have to make your strategy what you are comfortable doing.

 

It is best available/value, but you have to plan ahead. Just cause the best available at the moment may be a QB, it may be prudent to go RB or WR if you xpect the dropoff to your next pick to be greater at one of those positions than it will be at QB, and so on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I draft in multi leagues so I prepare my draft analysis for 3 or 4 strategies so I have a plan for the 1st 5 rounds or so. I break it down based on the where I might pick. My analysis takes into account if the other drafters are taking RBs heavy or WR Heavy. This allows me to target where I can get certain players to fill out my teams. eg. is if I am drafting in the 9th or 10th spot I might looked to go WR/WR or WR/RB if I can get AJ/Fitzs Or Moss I go WR and then target Grant and say K.Smith for my RBs in the 3rd 4th rounds or even what I might get in the 5th round for a RB or WR. I agree with a post earlier that I never take a QB or TE in the first 5 rounds. Usually I wait until the 7 to 10 round for a QB or TE no matter what position I am drafting from.

 

I hope this helps you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My key league annouces draft position 30 mins before the draft -- so I mock draft the hell out of it prior to, getting used to who's typically around at various rounds in various positions ... then I go into the draft with a cheat sheet I believe in and an open mind ... and let it unfold deliciously ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Totally depends on the scoring system.

 

I agree 100% with this. I usually never draft a QB or TE in the first 4-5 rounds, but last year I got into a new league that had scoring skewed toward QBs to such an extent that I knew I would need to draft a top tier QB (which I speculated would have to happen no later than round 2). I pulled the #2 draft slot by chance and ended up landing Brees at the end of round 2. I drafted Aaron Rodgers as a backup and got many offers to trade him but didn't do it. QB is that important in that league, and I couldn't have afforded a major drop off if Brees somehow got hurt. As it is, that league's trophy now sits on my desk.

 

If you use more standard scoring (whatever that is), you probably want to go RB-WR or WR-WR in the first two rounds. This doesn't seem like a good year to go RB-RB unless some real value slips to you in round 2. But you have to be willing to adjust based on who falls to you in each round as well as making sure you fill in all of your starting requirements (except K and DEF). Knowing where you draft ahead of time only lets you speculate on how your draft will unfold by mocking away, but in my experience I find that the real draft never seems to go the way I think it will after the first couple of picks (and sometimes not even then).

Edited by MTSuper7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you're prepared, it shouldn't matter. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes that you can make is decide that you are going to go RB/RB or some other predetermined strategy in the first two rounds.

I agree. Just did a redraft on Sunday and just played it by ear. Also, it's crazy playing in leagues where everyone knows what they're doing, then going to a friendly local league and seeing some of the insanity that happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So is it all "best available" as long as you get a RB, a QB, a WR, and another RB/WR in the first four rounds? I know that still sounds rigid, but my philosophy is never to reach on any of those three positions when trying to find a lead guy. I hate having a Hasselbeck type as my QB (I've always lost that bet) and certainly don't want to wait until Round 5 to draft my first RB/WR.

I'm rather certain that you should go best available every single round with very few exceptions. If this means that you end up with 4 RBs in the 1st four picks, then obviously there were no WRs or QBs worth a damned to you available at either of those picks. The rationale is simple. None of us has as much idea as we think we do as to which guys are going to be great. The data supports the fact that, after ADP of around 30 or so, the likelihood of guys panning out gets very slim and gets slimmer and slimmer very quickly. So there's simply no reason to dip any lower into that pool than you absolutely have to. And that's exactly what happens when you stray from the best guy available routine.

 

This may mean you go into week 1 with a stud WR or RB on the bench and a QB that you're concerned about at the helm. Of course, that QB could be this year's Aaron Rodgers (who was taken pretty late in most drafts last year) or you could end up mining solid QBs off the waiver wire. Meanwhile, you increase your chances of having a really solid guy at a coveted position that can either be traded or stashed away for a rainy day. That beats the hell out of stretching for Carson Palmer because you were hell-bent on using all your first 5 picks on week 1 starters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pray you don't get 1.7. Anything else is a matter of preference.

 

take the best WR on your board imo

 

Sounds like you need a new commish

:wacko:

 

Why pre-plan your strategy in a local anyways? Some tard will always make a ridiculous pick early on and throw everything off anyways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Totally depends on the scoring system.

 

That I would agree is the most important consideration, but not the only one. In local leagues which tend to have the same owners year in and out, knowing thier preferences and tendencies also can offer an edge, especially if you are picking near the turn.

 

1.07..... I don't buy into this idea that any slot is a bad one. If the scoring system sucks and favors RB's too much it might, but if the scoring system has some balance, not a bad spot to go WR/WR or even WR/QB from 1.07. You can still get RB's in rounds 3 and 4. Players like T Jones, R Rice and others, just to pick those two for an example.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The two problems with our league is

 

1) it's an office league and subject to a lot of turnover from one year to the next. Interns coming and going, someone has a baby and can't commit time... something

 

2) A LOT of guys just come in with some cheat sheet straight off a magazine or the internet. I haven't seen it get too crazy stupid in the early rounds because EVERYONE pretty much agrees on the top 30 and those are the picks that are mostly taken off these cheat sheets. QB is one position that folks seem to jump on early (had a guy in our league draft Brady and Romo with his 2nd and 3rd rounder last year), so it's another reason I tend not to wait.

 

Standard scoring is the league's set-up (6pts all TD's, 1 pt for 20 yds rush/receive, 1 pt for 50 yds passing, etc), and I think the only odd twist is that we do 2 WR, 1 RB, and 1 WR/RB flex spot. It makes me wonder sometimes if I am wasting time picking RB in the 1st round at all since I only HAVE to start one and could be loading up on guys like Moss, Fitz, Johnson in the first two rounds. I'm considering making this my plan regardless of my draft position (short of being #1 overall, of course). I just don't have a lot of faith in picking between MJD, Turner, Forte, etc (I'm the guy who picked Addai at #4 last year and went with Ronnie Brown at #5 three years ago.. I think I've swung and missed with every 1st-round RB I decided on) and figure there should be decent value in round 3 and 4 this year (Ryan Grant, Addai, Kevin Smith, etc). The guy who has been raking in a lot of the weekly money (he and I are probably 1-2 the last couple of years) has used the WR-WR route each of the past two seasons, then just looked for an emerging RB that folks bail on early (because we only need the 1 RB) or someone who wasn't picked up. He lucked in to DeAngelo Williams last year.

 

Anyway, I'm rambling. The discussion is interesting and I look forward to reading more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information