NCAA Tournament

[billay]

I would wager that there is a great deal of difference between playing a game in Portland, Oregon than there is in playing a game 50 miles from campus in the same media market.

Apparently so

[godtomsatan]

Kansas, UConn, Villanova, North Carolina.

[Gopher]

Definitely an interesting tournament so far. From the start, I thought that the #1 seeds all had a very good chance of advancing to the Final Four (I filled out four different brackets, and had three #1's in most of them), but never would have thought that 14 of the top 16 teams would be in the Sweet 16. The theme of the tournament so far, besides there being a lack of upsets, would have to be the number of close games, as well as the strange way some of them have ended... Marquette coming back from 16 down, only to throw away their chance at tying it in the final seconds, due to a baseline violation. Western Kentucky ties the game with just a few seconds left, only to watch Gonzaga go uncontested, down the entire length of the court, to win the game while the WKU coach screams for a timeout. The two games involving Big Ten teams late Friday night that went into OT at basically the same time... For a minute, it looked like Wisconsin was done and OSU was going to advanace, but it was actually the other way around. UCLA/VCU, Duke/Texas.... the list goes on and on. Definitely can't complain about a lack of excitement, and I don't get the people who call this year's tournament "boring" due to seeds 1-3 all advancing two rounds.

 

In the four brackets that I filled out this year, there is one that I'm doing fairly well in... 26/32 right in round 1, 14/16 in round 2, and my Final Four is still intact. Unfortunately, the two that I missed in the 16, I also have winning the next round (Wake and FSU)... I had each of them winning three games, and they didn't get out of round 1. I guess I'll be cheering for Arizona and Xavier... I think both definitely CAN win their games, but it's going to be a very tough task. Given the way things have played out so far, my picks for this weekend are:

 

Villanova over Duke - Should be one of the better games of the weekend (not that they all couldn't be very good, but I don't really see this one being a blowout either way). I think Nova has better big men overall, and will be able to pressure Duke enough on the perimeter to limit their open three-point looks. Duke's tendency of relying on 3's to keep them in games might get them in trouble in this one. Very impressed with Nova against UCLA... they were the superior team, by far. Nova 77-73

 

Pitt over Xavier - Pitt didn't exactly play well in their opening game, but they seemed to wake up somewhat in the second round game. I think they're better than Xavier at the point guard position, and can also exploit Xavier down low with Blair, assuming he stays out of foul trouble. I expect a close game that Pitt is able to open up in the second half. Pitt 72-64

 

Missouri over Memphis - It's been the tale of two different Memphis teams so far, through two rounds. What sticks out in my mind, more than anything, is still the fact that they panicked big-time in their opening round game. From the get-go, they seemed to move away from any sort of inside game-plan, and relied strictly on the 3-point shot to keep them in the game. That was totally unnecessary, and if not for Sallie going 10-15, they surely would have been one-and-done. In their second game against Maryland, they got out to such a fast start that there was really no reason/way for them to panic. I don't see them getting ahead of the fast-paced Missour Tigers like they did Maryland. I think it's much more likely that Missouri keeps it close, and we see Memphis panic again like they did in the opening round, leading to bad shot selection and poor decisions. Missouri 84-77

 

UConn over Purdue - I'm somewhat torn on this one, only because I did pick Purdue to beat UConn when I originally filled out my brackets. UConn had struggled towards the end of the season, and Purdue was playing well. Purdue continues to play well (they've won 13 straight first-round games and got off to a very good start in the Washington game). But, UConn seems to have turned things around, and seem to be gaining a lot of confidence. They need to make sure that they are not OVER-confident in this game, though, because one thing is for sure... Purdue will play smart, disciplined basketball. I think UConn's size-advantage will be just enough for them to move on. UConn 70-64

 

Louisville over Arizona - As much as I'd like to pick the Wildcats, I just don't think it's likely for a "leopard to change it's spots", as they say. In other words, Arizona has been highly inconsistent this year, and a poor performance is likely to appear sooner, rather than later. The other thing, of course, is that they've played a relatively weak 5-seed in Utah, and the lowest seed to advance to round 2 in 13-seeded Cleveland State. That's not to say that they haven't been impressive in their two wins, but facing Louisville is a totally different story from their first two opponents. I think this will be another game that is close for the first 25-30 minutes, with the Cardinals pulling away somewhat in the end. Louisville 73-64

 

Michigan State over Kansas - This is another one that I think could end up being a very competitive game... Two great point guards, both teams have a lot of size down low, etc. I like MSU's defense and rebounding, as well as the fact that they beat Kansas handily two months ago. I think it will be closer this time... MSU 70-67

 

NC over Gonzaga - North Carolina's big men should be able to dominate this game, on both ends of the court. With five days rest, Lawson should also be able to play effectively... The next round, on a day's rest, might be a different story. I think NC wins this one rather easily. NC 85-71

 

Syracuse over Oklahoma - Tough decision on this one... It's really a toss-up. I look at it as two great players in Flynn and Griffin, and a bunch of solid role-players on both squads as well. I think Griffin is much more apt to get into foul trouble, though, which is why I give the edge to 'Cuse. Syracuse 75-71

 

I can't believe that leaves five teams from the Big East in the final eight... That will be incredible if it plays out that way.

[Timmypg]

I don't follow the NBA much so maybe you guys can help. Is Henderson of Duke projected to go pro? He seems athletic enough but for Duke's sake I'm really hoping he doesn't. My cousin thinks he'll go but I don't.

[Gopher]

I don't follow the NBA much so maybe you guys can help. Is Henderson of Duke projected to go pro? He seems athletic enough but for Duke's sake I'm really hoping he doesn't. My cousin thinks he'll go but I don't.

It looks like he'll probably go pro, due to the fact that he's projected by most to be in the top 10 players taken. Nobody knows for sure, though... I can say this with a fair amount of certainty... Whether he stays or goes, if he continues to improve his outside shooting as much as he improved it from last year to now, he'll be an absolute beast next year. The guy is a tremendous athlete, and other than maybe his ball-handling, his jumpshot (although improved) is still his only real weakness, if you want to call it that.

[THE SIX KINGS]

Louisville, Memphis, Villanova, North Carolina

[billay]

No offense to Henderson, but no way he's a lottery pick.

[wildcat2334]

No offense to Henderson, but no way he's a lottery pick.

 

 

I am with you for the most part - an ultra- athletic 2 that can't shoot BUT

 

he is projected in the 10-15 range from everything I have seen

[Chief Dick]

I've watched both Missouri and Kansas alot this year. Missouri is gonna get rolled by a very motivated Memphis team. I think Memphis wins this by 13-15 points.

 

Kansas will lose. Badly. Sherron Collins is due to cool off like he always does, and he will start to press and try to do everything himself. KU will lose by double digits, more likely in the same range as Missouri.

[bushwacked]

Louisville, UConn, Villanova, UNC.

 

Need a 2nd chance bracket.

[Flip_Side]

Louisville, UConn, Villanova, UNC.

 

Need a 2nd chance bracket.

What happened to Memphis and Gonzaga lol?

[bushwacked]

What happened to Memphis and Gonzaga lol?

 

2 outta 6 of my brackets are in very good shape. If Memphis and Gonzaga advance I'll make up a ton of ground in the 4 that are not.

[Gopher]

No offense to Henderson, but no way he's a lottery pick.

I wouldn't be so sure....

I am with you for the most part - an ultra- athletic 2 that can't shoot BUT

 

he is projected in the 10-15 range from everything I have seen

Actually, Henderson's shooting has improved tremendously since last year from all distances... FG, 3's, and FT. In fact, his percentages are nearly identical to another SG who is a "guaranteed" lottery pick... James Harden. Harden is currently projected to be a top-five pick, while I've seen Henderson projected as high as #6, and as low as the 15-20 range. He's an inch shorter than Harden and weighs about five pounds less, but is far more explosive and a better defender.

 

#6 Overall

#19

11th

#18

#11

#8

Mock database

 

Whether you think he's a top-ten pick or better suited for the 15-20 range, one thing is for sure... the more recent the mock draft, the higher Henderson seems to be on the board. He's moved up more than anybody else in the field in the past couple of months, and the only way he's guaranteed to NOT be a lottery pick is if he stays in school. If he comes out, he's likely to go anywhere in the 8-20 range... that span covers more lottery spots than not. To say that he's "no way a lottery pick" or that he "can't shoot" is simply naive... You guys apparently haven't watched him play lately... the guy makes more NBA-type plays and hits more big shots than 99% of the players in the NCAA tournament.

[bushwacked]

I would wager that there is a great deal of difference between playing a game in Portland, Oregon than there is in playing a game 50 miles from campus in the same media market.

 

When I moved from Wenatchee to Bellingham (180 miles away) to go to school, my mom wondered why I didn't just live with my sister and bro-in-law in Tacoma (125 miles from Bellingham) to save on room and boarding costs. To be fair, it is a totally different climate (in more than one sense) and region from central WA to western WA.

 

I still find it odd when I go to places like Ohio and there a numerous markets within a 200 mile radius.

Edited March 24, 2009 by bushwacked

[bushwacked]

Hey, I haven't been signed up for a couple years to a SB. If anyone is interested on UNC -8.5 PM me please.

[wildcat2334]

I wouldn't be so sure....

 

Actually, Henderson's shooting has improved tremendously since last year from all distances... FG, 3's, and FT. In fact, his percentages are nearly identical to another SG who is a "guaranteed" lottery pick... James Harden. Harden is currently projected to be a top-five pick, while I've seen Henderson projected as high as #6, and as low as the 15-20 range. He's an inch shorter than Harden and weighs about five pounds less, but is far more explosive and a better defender.

 

#6 Overall

#19

11th

#18

#11

#8

Mock database

 

Whether you think he's a top-ten pick or better suited for the 15-20 range, one thing is for sure... the more recent the mock draft, the higher Henderson seems to be on the board. He's moved up more than anybody else in the field in the past couple of months, and the only way he's guaranteed to NOT be a lottery pick is if he stays in school. If he comes out, he's likely to go anywhere in the 8-20 range... that span covers more lottery spots than not. To say that he's "no way a lottery pick" or that he "can't shoot" is simply naive... You guys apparently haven't watched him play lately... the guy makes more NBA-type plays and hits more big shots than 99% of the players in the NCAA tournament.

 

 

 

 

Henderson is a SG THAT CAN'T SHOOT..........yet - cmon dude, you have to be joking he does not have a consistent J, something that is needed at the next level. The only reason his FG% isn't terrible is bc of all the high % dunks and easy shots at the rack he gets - dude is a freak athlete that will need to improve his perimeter jumper tremendously to play the 2, which he will have to play at 6'5.

 

And you use Harden as a comparison? - Harden also does not have a consistent jumpshot, and it is something he will need to improve on alot to be a solid 2 guard - Harden brings alot to the table, but is a different player that Henderson entirely - but they both have suspect jumpers with Harden having the edge shooting the ball.........

 

the dood who's game I love that will be better pros than both of them is Terrence Williams - his stock is rising but how he is not a lottery pick is

beyond me - I think he will be by draft day.

[Flip_Side]

DeMar Derozen, mark my words.

Edited March 24, 2009 by Flip_Side

[Gopher]

Henderson is a SG THAT CAN'T SHOOT..........yet - cmon dude, you have to be joking he does not have a consistent J, something that is needed at the next level. The only reason his FG% isn't terrible is bc of all the high % dunks and easy shots at the rack he gets - dude is a freak athlete that will need to improve his perimeter jumper tremendously to play the 2, which he will have to play at 6'5.

 

And you use Harden as a comparison? - Harden also does not have a consistent jumpshot, and it is something he will need to improve on alot to be a solid 2 guard - Harden brings alot to the table, but is a different player that Henderson entirely - but they both have suspect jumpers with Harden having the edge shooting the ball.........

 

the dood who's game I love that will be better pros than both of them is Terrence Williams - his stock is rising but how he is not a lottery pick is

beyond me - I think he will be by draft day.

I only used Harden as a comparison because he's the #1 SG in most of the mock drafts I've seen, while Henderson is #2 in a few. I'm not saying that they're the same player... their similarities really don't extend beyond the fact that they play the same position. They're both shooting right around 35% from 3 this year, which is not great, but certainly not bad. My point on Henderson is simple... It really only takes two things to become an NBA shooting guard. The first is god-given ability, athleticism, or whatever you want to call it. Henderson's got all of the raw ability in the world... he can literally jump out of the gym and has a natural knack for getting to the basket. I could count the number of 6'5" players who could explode to the hoop like he can, coming out of college in the last three years, on one hand. That kind of explosiveness at his size is rare.

 

The other part is the easy part... the list of players who were mediocre shooters coming out of college, and had to learn to shoot at the NBA level, is a mile long. Henderson made HUGE improvements as a shooter this year... If he improves half that much again over the next two years, his ability as an outside shooter will be a non-concern. If you think he can't shoot now, you clearly haven't watched him play... Yeah, he might get a couple of dunks per game, but he also knocks down at least that many big shots (jump shots) with the other team's best defender in his face. What has really impressed me about him is his decision-making and shot selection. The guy doesn't take a lot of bad/forced shots, which can sometimes be an issue for guys with his type of talent. I'm not saying that he's got NBA 3-point range at the moment... he doesn't. But, neither did Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, or dozens of other NBA swing men. Henderson is slightly smaller than those two, which is why he will probably be a pure 2, as opposed to the 2/3 hybrid that they and many other NBA guards are. But, I think the chances of him working on his range, and becoming a similar type of player is certainly not out of the question.

 

Whether you like it or not, his stock is rising as fast or faster than anyone else in college ball right now... I also agree with you on Williams, another guy that I've seen all over the place in mocks. As high as 5, and as low as 25, I don't see any way that he's not a lottery pick in three months.

[detlef]

Here's a name that came out of left field, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being true. Ed freaking Davis for UNC. His game has developed quite nicely over the season and, according to the local radio, some media in LA has him projected as 4th overall! Now, that's absolutely the first I've heard of this and about a guy many of us UNC fans had all but slated as a pillar of next year's team. Considering how few minutes he was getting at the beginning of the season, he was hardly a guy pegged to be one and done.

 

None the less, this is precisely the kind of rumor that gains traction and pulls a guy out of nowhere into the lottery, regardless of whether or not he's truly ready to go. As a UNC fan, it would bum me out if true. However, as someone who thinks it's BS that any restriction at all is put on when these guys should be allowed to get paid for doing what they love, I say more power to him. Again, provided it's true.

 

And, FWIW, he got more minutes than Deon Thompson on Saturday and most certainly has the best career ahead of him among all the UNC big men.

[billay]

I only used Harden as a comparison because he's the #1 SG in most of the mock drafts I've seen, while Henderson is #2 in a few. I'm not saying that they're the same player... their similarities really don't extend beyond the fact that they play the same position. They're both shooting right around 35% from 3 this year, which is not great, but certainly not bad. My point on Henderson is simple... It really only takes two things to become an NBA shooting guard. The first is god-given ability, athleticism, or whatever you want to call it. Henderson's got all of the raw ability in the world... he can literally jump out of the gym and has a natural knack for getting to the basket. I could count the number of 6'5" players who could explode to the hoop like he can, coming out of college in the last three years, on one hand. That kind of explosiveness at his size is rare.

 

The other part is the easy part... the list of players who were mediocre shooters coming out of college, and had to learn to shoot at the NBA level, is a mile long. Henderson made HUGE improvements as a shooter this year... If he improves half that much again over the next two years, his ability as an outside shooter will be a non-concern. If you think he can't shoot now, you clearly haven't watched him play... Yeah, he might get a couple of dunks per game, but he also knocks down at least that many big shots (jump shots) with the other team's best defender in his face. What has really impressed me about him is his decision-making and shot selection. The guy doesn't take a lot of bad/forced shots, which can sometimes be an issue for guys with his type of talent. I'm not saying that he's got NBA 3-point range at the moment... he doesn't. But, neither did Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, or dozens of other NBA swing men. Henderson is slightly smaller than those two, which is why he will probably be a pure 2, as opposed to the 2/3 hybrid that they and many other NBA guards are. But, I think the chances of him working on his range, and becoming a similar type of player is certainly not out of the question.

 

Whether you like it or not, his stock is rising as fast or faster than anyone else in college ball right now... I also agree with you on Williams, another guy that I've seen all over the place in mocks. As high as 5, and as low as 25, I don't see any way that he's not a lottery pick in three months.

I have a number of issues with your analysis. Big men are drafted solely for their potential and freakish athleticism, but not 2 guards. Sure, he can jump out of the gym, but that fact overshadows many weaknesses in his game. For the most part, He's a 1 trick pony, he's exceptional at getting to the rim, and all of the other factets of his game emanate from it. However, IMO, getting to the rim will be the most difficult thing for him to do in the pros. Out of his primamary game, he gets 2 options: Option #1 the straight up 3. He's an inconsistent shooter, at best. I'd also argue that most of the 3's he hits are not contested. Typically players are playing off of him, in anticipation of him driving to the basket, but Duke also gets a lot of open looks as a result of the offense they run, and these are the 3's Henderson is hitting, not the ones with a defender in his face. When he's defended by a guy with lateral quickness, who can stay in fron of him, who can then conversely, guard him close at the perimeter, his game withers. It's true, there aren't alot of these defenders in college. I'd wager he'll see more in the pros.

 

The second option out of his game is the jumpshot off the dribble. The is the worst aspect of his game. You're right that it has improved over the years, but it's still not good. His ball handling is suspect. His shot selection is also questionable (although he does take fewer bad shots than he used to. But he still took several in the most recent game against Texas.) I also have doubts about his ability to go to his left. I saw him go to his left for the first time against texas this weekend. Teams are figuring him out, and I'd venture that Villanova will deny him the lane with a sagging second defender. We'll see how Henderson handles that.

[billay]

Here's a name that came out of left field, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being true. Ed freaking Davis for UNC. His game has developed quite nicely over the season and, according to the local radio, some media in LA has him projected as 4th overall! Now, that's absolutely the first I've heard of this and about a guy many of us UNC fans had all but slated as a pillar of next year's team. Considering how few minutes he was getting at the beginning of the season, he was hardly a guy pegged to be one and done.

 

None the less, this is precisely the kind of rumor that gains traction and pulls a guy out of nowhere into the lottery, regardless of whether or not he's truly ready to go. As a UNC fan, it would bum me out if true. However, as someone who thinks it's BS that any restriction at all is put on when these guys should be allowed to get paid for doing what they love, I say more power to him. Again, provided it's true.

 

And, FWIW, he got more minutes than Deon Thompson on Saturday and most certainly has the best career ahead of him among all the UNC big men.

Ed was a beast this weekend and I think he will get more minutes that Deon for the rest of the year. Frankly, from what I hear, the only reason that he's not starting is because Deon Thompson has a very fragile ego, and would fall apart if he got bumped form the starting lineup. Against LSU, Deon was the first guy out, and came out about 2.5 minutes into the game. There is no queston tha UNC is a better team, both offensively and defensively, when Ed Davis in on the floor. He's a talented shot blocker (primarily fromt he help side), but he's also gotten very comfortable on the block, and has developed a nice little left hook.

[darin3]

Henderson is a SG THAT CAN'T SHOOT..........

Dude... while I'm not comparing the two but for this one particular, Dwayne Wade was a pretty weak jump-shooter in college and still is not an elite jump-shooting SG. And uh...

 

Trust me, I am as anti-Dook as the next guy, but I must admit Henderson has improved and could be a viable 2-guard in the NBA in a few years. Will he be D-Wade... well yeah, I'd bet not... but whatever.

[Robash]

Im just gonna throw it out right now so i look like a genius Louisville, Memphis, Duke, Syracuse in the final 4, with Louisville over Syracuse in the final.

[Kid Cid]

Im just gonna throw it out right now so i look like a genius doofus Louisville, Memphis, Duke, Syracuse in the final 4, with Louisville over Syracuse in the final.

 

Fixed

[Gopher]

I have a number of issues with your analysis. Big men are drafted solely for their potential and freakish athleticism, but not 2 guards. Sure, he can jump out of the gym, but that fact overshadows many weaknesses in his game. For the most part, He's a 1 trick pony, he's exceptional at getting to the rim, and all of the other factets of his game emanate from it. However, IMO, getting to the rim will be the most difficult thing for him to do in the pros. Out of his primamary game, he gets 2 options: Option #1 the straight up 3. He's an inconsistent shooter, at best. I'd also argue that most of the 3's he hits are not contested. Typically players are playing off of him, in anticipation of him driving to the basket, but Duke also gets a lot of open looks as a result of the offense they run, and these are the 3's Henderson is hitting, not the ones with a defender in his face. When he's defended by a guy with lateral quickness, who can stay in fron of him, who can then conversely, guard him close at the perimeter, his game withers. It's true, there aren't alot of these defenders in college. I'd wager he'll see more in the pros.

 

The second option out of his game is the jumpshot off the dribble. The is the worst aspect of his game. You're right that it has improved over the years, but it's still not good. His ball handling is suspect. His shot selection is also questionable (although he does take fewer bad shots than he used to. But he still took several in the most recent game against Texas.) I also have doubts about his ability to go to his left. I saw him go to his left for the first time against texas this weekend. Teams are figuring him out, and I'd venture that Villanova will deny him the lane with a sagging second defender. We'll see how Henderson handles that.

Good points, and I don't entirely disagree with anything you brought up. My point is that he's got the hard part covered, which is the athleticism thing... You either have that or you don't. Shooting and ball-handling skills are two of the easiest things to fix... Spend a lot of time doing either one, and it's impossible not to improve. If he puts in the time, and works on extending the range on his jumpshot, he can be an NBA 2-guard. The one thing you said that I don't agree with is in bold... You're partially right in that the NBA will draft a big man who is completely unpolished, based on their size and potential alone. But, if you think that there haven't been guards drafted with lottery picks who were drafted that high partially/primarily because of their athleticism, you simply haven't paid attention to the draft in the past 10 years. Plus, no offense, but I'll always take an NC fan's opinion on a Duke player with a grain of salt... I don't know too many NC fans who don't have at least a slight hatred for anything Duke-related.

 

We'll see... I'm not saying that he's the next D-Wade, or anything like that. All I'm saying is that I think he's got a ton of potential to become a solid NBA player IF he continues to work as hard as he obviously worked between last season and this season. You can teach someone to shoot, dribble, etc. His biggest attributes are not teachable, and no other guard in this draft has the combination of those attributes that he does, which is what makes him intriguing to me. Do I think he should be a top-five pick? No. But, I don't think counting him completely out of the lottery is a very smart thing to do at this point, especially when the guy's draft stock continues to improve every month, at least according to draft "experts" who know far more about this than we do.