Rookie Running Backs

[DMD]

Certainly no position offers up rookies that attract more attention than RBs and this year appears to be a better than usual one with some really good offenses drafting one early or very favorable situations existing for other teams. Which rookie RB would you most want for this year and then which one will be best long-term?

 

Not since 2005 have there been as many interesting RBs for fantasy drafts. That year served up Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, Frank Gore and Marion Barber. There are seven RBs that are always drafted this year and each has pluses and minuses. It is making drafts deeper for the position if nothing else and that is always a good thing - at least until we see what will really happen.

[peepinmofo]

Stewart on both counts. Call it a hunch, but he is who I saw play in college the most, and the dude is just flat out good.

[Suture]

Stewart for both. I think he's the right RB for Carolina.

[tazinib1]

Very happy to see all the Jonathon Stewart backers. He's the real deal.

 

Interesting that the other RB's don't have the same following in both polls. What does that tell ya.

Edited June 16, 2008 by tazinib1

[DemonKnight]

I'd say Matt Smith this year for TD heavy leagues based on what KJ did in limited time last year. I think Jonathan Stewart is the best runner and will rise to the top as the years progress though.

[Big John]

I'd say Matt Smith this year for TD heavy leagues based on what KJ did in limited time last year. I think Jonathan Stewart is the best runner and will rise to the top as the years progress though.

[tazinib1]

I'd say Matt Smith this year for TD heavy leagues based on what KJ did in limited time last year. I think Jonathan Stewart is the best runner and will rise to the top as the years progress though.

[Randall]

I'd say Matt Smith this year for TD heavy leagues based on what KJ did in limited time last year. I think Jonathan Stewart is the best runner and will rise to the top as the years progress though.

 

 

Matt Smith? You mean Kevin?

[Bronco Billy]

Wow. I usually love these kinds of questions at this time in the year. But this year? There is tremendous potential for mutliple high acheivers, but as always there are going to be serious disappointments.

 

I noticed that you didn't include a couple of rookies who could end up being major impact RBs and may be in better situations than 3 or 4 of the guys listed above: DEN's Ryan Torain & AZ's Tim Hightower. You could also have included Ray Rice, whom I really like as a pro runner but does have McGahee in front of him and BAL's diminished run blocking capability. But it's hard to ignore talent that ought to make a good transfer to the next level. And you could almost include HOU's Steve Slaton in that bunch if he hadn't seen such a dramatic fall off in production and seeming capability last year from the previous year.

 

I am high on Stewart & Forte. Stewart does have to share with Williams, but from what I've seen of him I see a lot of comparables to Steven Jackson. Doesn't mean he'll be Jackson, but the likeness of the two is tantalizing. Forte has pretty much been handed that starting job on a silver platter, and unless he completely falls on his face should put up very good numbers for a while - the formula in CHI of a great D with poor QB play has been a recipe for RB success in the past (read - lots of work). Make no mistake, Forte has the skill set to be a successful featured RB in the NFL.

 

I love McFadden's talent and think he'll be much closer to the RB that people thought Reggie Bush would be than Bush actually is. I don't like the RB cluster#### in OAK, or that they can't stop the run on D, or that QB Russell hasn't shown anything so far that remotely justifies his draft position. So while I do think McFadden has the ability to be stellar and will see a good transfer of his skill set, I worry that the situation might be too much to overcome even for him.

 

I'm not crazy about Mendenhall or Smith. I think both may see a significant loss of skills in the jump to the next level. I think both benefitted greatly in college from their O systems as well as team mates who had seriously better skills than opposing Ds. I think Mendenhall won't be able to challenge the edge effectively and will have a difficult time hitting the hole quickly enough between the tackles before it closes, and I think Smith will have a very tough time running up inside.

 

I know that Felix Jones is stuck being locked into a RBBC with a very good to possibly great RB. That should limit his chances and make him much more of a hit-or-miss RB, where he'll score well in weeks where he busts off a long run for a TD and have droughts in the some of the weeks in between where he'll put up single digit FF scores. I foresee him as kind of the Lee Evans of RBs.

 

I see Chris Johnson as being eerily similar to Chris Henry, where their stock jumped dramatically because of a superior combine 40 time, but their body of work doesn't support being any thought of a featured RB, and probably would work best as a gimmick RB, where they split from the backfield and line up as a slot receiver or even wider.

 

I like both Torrain's & Hightower's situations. Torrain put up prolific college numbers before being hurt, and he fits the DEN RB recipe to a tee - don't worry about catching the ball, hit the seam and then the one cut to downhill, very tough between the tackles, playing speed better than his timed speed. Hightower has shown some promise and was an under-rated RB in college, and has only a very overworked & aging Edge between he and featured RB duty, plus he'd have that AZ passing game to keep extra D players out of the box - meaning he doesn't have to be nearly the most talented RB in the bunch to see some good success.

 

This is a really tough call this early in the year. I'd make mine Stewart or Forte for redraft with Torain and/or Hightower being darkhorses. I'd have to go with Stewart, McFadden, or Rice in dynasty with darkhorses Forte, Torain, & Hightower lurking.

Edited June 16, 2008 by Bronco Billy

[tazinib1]

Matt Smith? You mean Kevin?

 

Probably Matt Forte.

[Bronco Billy]

Probably Matt Forte.

 

Probably not since he has a KJ reference. I'd say Kevin Smith is more likely (or maybe the demon seed love child of Matt Damon & Will Smith, perhaps?).

[DemonKnight]

Matt Smith? You mean Kevin?

 

Ya, duh. I played ball with a guy in High School named Matt Smith. Coffee still kickin in.

[The Irish Doggy]

Seeing more choices for Stewart than I would have imagined. The Carlina RB history of late leaves a lot to be desired.

[Bronco Billy]

Seeing more choices for Stewart than I would have imagined. The Carlina RB history of late leaves a lot to be desired.

 

That may have to do a lot more with poor choices in RB usage by Fox than a lack of ability of the team to run the ball, or of the ability of D Williams.

[tonyr0802]

Seeing more choices for Stewart than I would have imagined. The Carlina RB history of late leaves a lot to be desired.

 

Wouldn't that support seeing more Stewart choices

[DMD]

Seeing more choices for Stewart than I would have imagined. The Carlina RB history of late leaves a lot to be desired.

 

But the Panthers recent history is three years with Foster and Williams which have never gotten the job done. Why they stuck with Foster I will never understand. They had an injury plagued 2004 when Nick Goings was the lead RB.

 

But in 2003, they got 1444 yards and eight TDs from Stephen Davis who was the exact same size as Stewart and whom the Panthers never have been able to replace for four years. I would never consider the Foster years as indicative of anything other than poor coaching judgement.

[Randall]

I would have added Ray Rice and Forte to the poll especially in a dynasty league.

[rebdog]

I would have added Ray Rice and Forte to the poll especially in a dynasty league.

 

Forte's there.

[Valhalla]

Matt Forte - I think he's going to surprise a lot of people. I do love Ray Rice a lot too though. Short term though, I think Forte has a HUGE opportunity that I think he can grab. Chicago's O line is not too shabby at all. The others are talented too, but all have good backs in front of them.

[darin3]

I think Kevin Smith has the best chance at putting up good stats this year. I think Stewart is very talented but I can see him in a 50/50 or 60/40 type of split with DeAngelo Williams. No such split for Smith. As for Forte, I think he also has a pretty good chance at putting up stats this year, but will probably lose some carries to Adrian Peterson and even Garrett Wolfe.

 

As for a dynasty pick, I have to say it's Darren McFadden. The guy is ultra explosive and even if he's in a RBBC type of situation, I think he's the best bet in the longer term. I do like Stewart a lot in the dynasty format, too. He'll eventually show that he's an every-down back and Williams will go away. So maybe McFadden/Stewart are 1a/1b.

[rebdog]

I'm surprised by the love for Kevin Smith. Not based on his abilities, but based on the franchise he's with.

Long-term its hard to jump on board with any player in Detroit. Even Barry Sanders couldn't find the endzone enough in the Motor City.

 

I tend to like Chicago's history with RBs much more. They like to get one guy the majority of the carries, and tend to do well. Even the likes of Salaam and Raymont Harris had good fantasy years. Thomas Jones did well until CBust got there. And you can go back to Neal Anderson and the great Sweetness before that.

 

I'd go Stewart 1st in both categories. McFadden scares me a little. His body-type looks fragile....almost Cadillac Williams-like.

 

Mendenhall's in the best situation. Question is whether he's the real-deal or not. I don't get the feeling anyone is sure. I would've loved Ray Rice or Felix Jones in Pitt......just because I"ve seen more of them.

[tazinib1]

Hey 2v you out there?

[Brentastic]

DMD - funny that you mention 2005, since IMO, that is the worst RB class in recent memory.

 

Anyways, I chose Forte and Mendenhall respectively.

[whomper]

Ya, duh. I played ball with a guy in High School named Matt Smith. Coffee still kickin in.

 

 

Was he good? Is he worth a late flyer ?

[Big Talker]

At this point for dynasty leagues, Stewart would be my #1 pick, with McFadden #2 and Forte an intriguing #3.

 

For redraft, it's a a tossup between Stewart and McFadden. I could see either of them emerging as the #1 rookie RB for 2008.