BS Miscreant Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 I have personally seen him go 2.03, 2.07 and 2.09 in mocks. I have also been to some sites with ADP trackers and he is going middle to late 2nd round in all of them. Prior to seeing this I was figuring on a couple other guys as my 2nd pick but if he's there that late I'm not sure that it matters who else is there I'm gonna take him. Am I missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGameTime Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 I think when it's all said and done he will move back up.............then again maybe not! If you're missing something I am too.....what is it?????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted June 8, 2005 Author Share Posted June 8, 2005 I think when it's all said and done he will move back up.............then again maybe not! 834429[/snapback] Funny thing is, with the load he's gotta carry, you know he's not gonna get a ton of reps in the preseason so what's gonna change people's minds? Wait a minute... I just figured it out when people start coming to their drafts with cheatsheets created by the "experts" it all even out. Yes? No? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 I think that the fear of a one-year wonder scares people. But not me so I don't know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted June 8, 2005 Author Share Posted June 8, 2005 I think that the fear of a one-year wonder scares people. 834464[/snapback] Maybe that's it. Problem with that thinking is the guy is averaging 1900 total yds and 9 tds over the last 3 seasons. Granted, two seasons ago his tds were down but that's a pretty nice body of work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 It depends on which Tiki you expect to see in 2005. The one from last year that led the NFL with 2096 yards and scored 15 TD's or the Tiki Barber from 2003 that had 1680 yards and only three TDs. The Giants turned to Barber heavily during the first season under the new scheme and coaches and his 400 rushes/receptions were only 18 away from also being the highest in the NFL last year for a RB. The G-men are more likely to throw better this year and not run so much. Tiki is also 30 years old now and since he weighs about 195 lbs, he cannot take that load every year. Therefore, he is marked down. Last year is considered more the freak high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainer_Phil Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Heck, I took Tiki at 1.05 in The Huddle Magazine mock draft. I think people are completely undervaluing him. I've seen several mocks with him falling into the middle of the second round. So if this holds up, I would absolutely love to draft at the end of round 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 DMD nailed it. I expect an "every other year" performance from Tiki this year, closer to his 2003 numbers. I know this comes from out of left field, and injuries can't be predicted..... but Tiki has only missed two games in five years. Can he hold up to this sort of load forever? I have him as a second rounder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 It's an odd year, which he historically does poorly in. And if fumbles cost you in your scoring system, he's worth a little less. If receptions get you points, he's worth a little more. He's always been a very stable work horse when it comes to yardage. It's just the TDs that seem to be a crap shoot. Personally, I wouldn't touch him until 1.12. Though, he'd be a nice pick up anywhere in the 2nd, especially as a #2 RB. He'd be super-solid in that capacity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulOttCarruth Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 I think he continues to be undervalued because of his size. People are genuinely convinced that his frame will not be able to hold up to the punishment of being a primary ball carrier. He's proven that he's as solid as they come, rarely even getting nicked up. In my mind, he's a solid first round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 The G-men are more likely to throw better this year and not run so much. Tiki is also 30 years old now and since he weighs about 195 lbs, he cannot take that load every year. Therefore, he is marked down. Last year is considered more the freak high. 834479[/snapback] Wouldn't the upgrade in the passing game open things up a bit for Tiki? Defenses will be less likely to key on Barber and he's also used quite a bit in the passing game. I'd take him in the late first round and I think he's a steel if he's there mid to late second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Some people like Tiki fantasy-wise some don't. I don't. You want him, take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swampnuts Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Some people like Tiki fantasy-wise some don't. I don't. You want him, take him. 834717[/snapback] Pure genius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 IMO, at this point in time, he's below the usual suspects. These are LT, Priest, Alexander, and Edge. I still think Deuce and Portis are more solid options, and then you can make a case for him up against McGahee, Dom Davis, Dillon, etc. (maybe I've missed a few). The question in my mind is going to be the better value? Tiki, who came off a career year, or Ahman Green who will slide down the charts because of his off year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Antsports has him st 2.04 average, 1.07 to 3.04, the 14th RB taken. Kevin Jones and Julius both going before him. Seems like a bargain if you can get him in the 2nd round. He has always been underestimated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redcoltfan Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Good topic. I see Tiki in the 12-15 range- around guys like: Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones, and Lamont Jordan. I don't see him in the 9-12 range with guys like: Jamal Lewis, Dom Davis, and Dillon. I have a rough estimate of RB rankings and TIKI is not in my top 10. Like I know anything Great argument- Will Tiki repeat 2004 numbers or go back down to earth- 2003 numbers? I lean toward 2003. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swashbucklers Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Last year Tiki was a steal in the fifth round for me. I didn't even want to take him at that point but I went for a needed position. He panned out last year. This year IMO, he will go higher than he should. The thing about Tiki is that you are always going to get points from him, just how many is the question. I would put him around 13-16 since this year is deep at RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 In a redraft, I'd take him in the top 5 or so. In a keeper, I might take him late first early 2nd. In a dynasty, he would probably fall to late 2nd or even the 3rd round. This is not only due to his age, but also the assumed maturing process of Manning. They will eventually be a more pass oriented offense, as evidenced by them picking up Burress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Over 30, less than 200 lbs, coming off of a 1,500-yard season....ALL that points to a big dropoff. I hope more people think like Trainer Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pancake Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 In the last three years Tiki's lowest rushing yards for a year was 1,216 and he has averaged 523 receiving yards since he has been in the NFL(8 years now). IMO, his rushing yards, receiving yards and receiving TDs are a lock for approx. 1,200, 450, and 2, respectively, due to his history of consistnecy, the head coach, and the unproven and somewhat suspect passing game. Its his TD production that is a crap shoot, which throws Tiki into the #2 RB realm. I see Tiki as one of the top #2 RBs as his upside is very large..its just that he has only shown his upside once. IMO, top 5 RB is such a stretch. Dont get me wrong, He is absolutely capable of being a top 5 RB again if the upside is realized, I just dont think it will be realized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 DMD nailed it. I expect an "every other year" performance from Tiki this year, closer to his 2003 numbers. I know this comes from out of left field, and injuries can't be predicted..... but Tiki has only missed two games in five years. Can he hold up to this sort of load forever? I have him as a second rounder. 834491[/snapback] Same for Ahman? I've seen him go in rnd 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgcoach Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 My take would be this, it's no secret the Giants went out and got Jacobs as a short yardage back for those 3rd. and shorts and goal line. People may be worried he may be giving up more also. With Manning not yet proven or comfortable in his position it could be tough for him. Not because he won't get enough carries but, way too many for him to survive the season. Let's not forget he's just over 30 also so maybe he'll go higher in redraft leagues. If it's a keeper or dynasty, I can see the slip into the middle to late second depending upon the size of the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Sacrebleu Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Even if last year was the fluke year, one thing has always been clear: Tiki and Curtis Martin have been for the last three years the best #2RBs you could possibly draft. By that I mean that you knew you were getting an undisputed RB who though not sexy, and probably would not get you that many TDs, would be a week in and week out producer. steady points are essential in a #2 RB IMO, rather than the 3TD 140 yd game one week, and 34 yard 0TD the next week ( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pancake Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 (edited) Even if last year was the fluke year, one thing has always been clear: Tiki and Curtis Martin have been for the last three years the best #2RBs you could possibly draft.By that I mean that you knew you were getting an undisputed RB who though not sexy, and probably would not get you that many TDs, would be a week in and week out producer. steady points are essential in a #2 RB IMO, rather than the 3TD 140 yd game one week, and 34 yard 0TD the next week ( 835167[/snapback] I agree on all counts....but people seem to be blinded by the upside of a player and then forget about the downside. (ala Fred Taylor in years past) Tiki and Curtis have'nt had the perceived upside in the last couple of years so people have been discounting them. Both these RBs for the last couple years (prior to 2004) had produced unspectacular numbers but always ended up just where you thought they would based on their historical performances. IMO, you go for the RB that is a lock for a decent minimum production with upside....I really hate the roller coaster ride of RBs who have the big upside AND the big downside. Edited June 8, 2005 by Pancake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 It depends on which Tiki you expect to see in 2005. The one from last year that led the NFL with 2096 yards and scored 15 TD's or the Tiki Barber from 2003 that had 1680 yards and only three TDs. The Giants turned to Barber heavily during the first season under the new scheme and coaches and his 400 rushes/receptions were only 18 away from also being the highest in the NFL last year for a RB. The G-men are more likely to throw better this year and not run so much. Tiki is also 30 years old now and since he weighs about 195 lbs, he cannot take that load every year. Therefore, he is marked down. Last year is considered more the freak high. 834479[/snapback] Exactly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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