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What are your lessons learned about drafting and the Fantasy Football season?


gijoerock
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Don't pick players that get hurt or catch covid.

 

No, really, I think the only real mistake I made this season was not actively seeking a trade when my top LB (Jayon Brown) went down for the season. I was able to sustain Michael Thomas by trading some depth & had a couple of weeks to work something similar for a LB, but I thought I could get by on streaming & under-performing players. It worked to get me a bye in the playoffs, but now that I'm fighting injuries in other places I don't have that consistent top-tier LB to help mitigate the damage. FF is all about consistency and I just don't have it right now. I'll have to hope my players get healthy and hope on a few good games from mediocre players.

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1 minute ago, League_Champion said:

The one thing that we learned from this year is RB, RB, RB and more Running Backs. You can plug & play most receivers based on matchup but you can never have too many RBs. 

Our FFPC high stakes team has had consistent success for nearly a decade now, doing the exact opposite of this. 

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Just now, Bobby Brown said:

Except for the season actually has ended up having way fewer hiccups than I think most imagined it would.  

Way fewer in regard to games missed but there have been major impacts with players missing games, injuries, and odd circumstances. 

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6 minutes ago, irish said:

Way fewer in regard to games missed but there have been major impacts with players missing games, injuries, and odd circumstances. 

Which is probably a bonus for those of us who draft depth and manage the wire effectively. 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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8 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Which is probably a bonus for those of us who draft depth and manage the wire effectively. 

Yup, the seasoned players probably dominated. Those new to the game were probably frustrated. 

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Every point matters, missed a playoff spot by 7 points, and had several times I could have scored those extra points and not had it matter to the game result. I need to do better in games within my division, its weird I split the pair of games with both teams that finished ahead of me and went to the playoffs, but I lost both games to the guy who finished one game behind me. 

 

Oh and draft better, TY Hilton and DJ Chark were my first 2 picks (keepers Wilson, Jacobs, Carson, Adams, Ertz) never really helped me much. And when Hilton started to produce again I left him on my bench, cost me a win last week that would have put me in the playoffs. 

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13 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

this was still random though, and forced different starter strategies based on league rules

Drafting depth was important but working the waiver wire effectively was even more important this year. I drafted CMC first and didn’t get Davis. Drafted Kittle with my 3rd round pick. Picked up James Robinson before the season started for free. Spent my 4th rd pick on Cam Akers. Grabbed Herbert after week 2. Traded Juju and D. Johnson for M. Thomas. Ended up making 33 moves on the waiver wire in the regular season. By far this year was the most different players I’ve ever used in my starting line ups and still managed to go 10-3 and get the #1 seed in a 12 team standard league. Kind of funny, me and the guy that is the #2 seed both made 33 waiver wire moves. Way more than anybody else in the league. I’ve used so many different kickers, defenses, TE, and RB this year I couldn’t even remember them all unless I went back and looked at every week

Edited by Finn5033
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34 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

this was still random though, and forced different starter strategies based on league rules

 

Are you saying that every year drafting depth and managing the waiver wire is random and there is no (or a low level) of skill involved in draft prep and waiver wire management (primarily for blind bid leagues, though to a lesser extent worst to first as well).

 

And aren't starter strategies (and thus drafting and waiver strategy) always based on league rules?

 

I guess I'm a bit confused - in every one of my leagues with different rules I have a different strategy - 1 RB or 2 RB required starter are different strategies, PPR or no-PPR is a different strategy, TE premium or not is a different strategy, 1 or 2 flexes and what positions can be flexed are a different strategy, 2 QB (and superflex) is a different strategy.

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1 minute ago, League_Champion said:

 

That's awesome Bobby. I'm so happy for your success. 

Well, different leagues require different strategies.  But there is a large amount of data that shows for high stake FFPC leagues thar WR value plummets after round 5 and RB value doesn't.  Hence, you're more likely to find plug and play value in later rounds at RB more than WR. Most drafters assume otherwise.

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9 minutes ago, Big Country said:

 

Are you saying that every year drafting depth and managing the waiver wire is random and there is no (or a low level) of skill involved in draft prep and waiver wire management (primarily for blind bid leagues, though to a lesser extent worst to first as well).

 

And aren't starter strategies (and thus drafting and waiver strategy) always based on league rules?

 

I guess I'm a bit confused - in every one of my leagues with different rules I have a different strategy - 1 RB or 2 RB required starter are different strategies, PPR or no-PPR is a different strategy, TE premium or not is a different strategy, 1 or 2 flexes and what positions can be flexed are a different strategy, 2 QB (and superflex) is a different strategy.

Draft strategy was somewhat normal. I believe I am always drafting for depth Injuries, in general, are random. 

 

The extra variable this year was covid (and each league's rules around covid)... and how the league/teams reacted to covid was even more random.  for example.. a player tests positive (or was exposed to covid) .... having games moved dramatically changes our strategy for who we are starting each week. not knowing how long someone is going to be held out also impacts ww/fa.  

 

fwiw- i made playoffs in 2/3 non-ffpc leagues (the third is is still in progress with a week 14 regular season game)... with a lot of roster movement.

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23 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

 I believe I am always drafting for depth Injuries, in general, are random. 

 

 

 

 

Injuries are generally random for specific players.  They aren't random for positions.  RBs were atypicaly healthy last year.  It was the only year our current FFPC ownership team of 7 years didn't win the regular season and/or league playoffs.  That wasn't a coincidence or meaningless correlation. 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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1 hour ago, Bobby Brown said:

Hence, you're more likely to find plug and play value in later rounds at RB more than WR. Most drafters assume otherwise.

 

I don't necessarily disagree but I tend to go RB heavy. To your point my best running backs this year were actually undrafted free agents like James Robinson, Gaskins, etc. Antonio Gibson also fell in my lap but who'd of guessed? So yes, you are correct there was very good value this year. It's the RB injuries that killed everyone, that's why I said more, more, more. 

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10th place is the first draft pick :D

 

Funny thing, in our dynasty league my son and I are 9th and 10th.  We've both been not trying too hard for the last 3 games since making the playoffs became mathematically impossible.  Both of us accidently won a gam so we're both 3-10.  

 

We face off in week 14, lol.  But it's dynasty so we're playing our prospective next year studs.  Go Tua (not really, take it light brother).

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2 hours ago, BillyBalata said:

An old Huddler used to say...Fantasy Football is 88% Luck and the other 12% is just plain Dumb Luck.  Sometimes I think he nailed it.

Most times the only luck I find in fantasy football is bad luck. 

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Don’t be afraid to cut bait on players early for a juicy pick up.

 

I watched Robinson get picked up a nemesis as I had 3 strong running backs and didn’t want to lose Ruggs before the season started.

 

I also tell myself not to do this after I dropped James Jones week 1 after his goose egg. He proceeded to score double digit TDs and was the reason I lost in the playoffs. 
 

Oh yeah - stop winning points against. That’s my goal next year.

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